段永平采访

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方三文：你觉得抄作业这个东西

[00:00:02,135 --> 00:00:04,571]
段永平：它是不是一种可持续的投资的方法

[00:00:04,571 --> 00:00:05,238]
段永平：它很难

[00:00:05,438 --> 00:00:06,873]
段永平：你抄老巴的作业

[00:00:06,873 --> 00:00:07,607]
段永平：还OK

[00:00:07,607 --> 00:00:09,476]
段永平：老巴的东西都是透明的嘛

[00:00:09,476 --> 00:00:10,610]
方三文：你抄我的怎么抄

[00:00:10,610 --> 00:00:13,113]
方三文：我又不公布我的持仓

[00:00:13,113 --> 00:00:16,516]
段永平：那如果用一句话来概括你的投资理念的话

[00:00:16,516 --> 00:00:18,284]
段永平：是不是买股票就是买公司

[00:00:18,451 --> 00:00:18,785]
方三文：是的

[00:00:18,785 --> 00:00:20,253]
方三文：但是后面那句话就是

[00:00:20,253 --> 00:00:21,321]
方三文：你要看懂公司

[00:00:21,554 --> 00:00:22,455]
段永平：这个很难

[00:00:22,455 --> 00:00:23,523]
段永平：是什么原因

[00:00:23,990 --> 00:00:25,191]
段永平：或者什么样的思考

[00:00:25,392 --> 00:00:26,192]
段永平：让你去

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方三文：考虑投资英伟达这样的

[00:00:28,328 --> 00:00:29,529]
段永平：看起来是一个

[00:00:29,529 --> 00:00:31,364]
段永平：高度变化的行业中的一个企业

[00:00:31,364 --> 00:00:32,899]
方三文：我以前也以为它高度变化了

[00:00:32,899 --> 00:00:34,768]
方三文：后来发现它们确实很厉害

[00:00:34,768 --> 00:00:36,002]
方三文：AI这个东西我觉得

[00:00:36,002 --> 00:00:37,404]
方三文：至少掺和一下

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方三文：不要错过了

[00:00:38,304 --> 00:00:40,740]
方三文：你未来还有哪些愿望想要实现的

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方三文：我这个人本来就胸无大志

[00:00:42,542 --> 00:00:44,210]
方三文：我就过好每一天就挺好

[00:00:46,613 --> 00:00:48,648]
方三文：大家好 我是方三文

[00:00:49,382 --> 00:00:51,584]
方三文：也是雪球上的不明真相的群众

[00:00:51,851 --> 00:00:53,486]
方三文：我对自己的简介是

[00:00:53,486 --> 00:00:54,821]
方三文：陪聊陪赌

[00:00:55,388 --> 00:00:56,689]
方三文：那么跟谁聊呢

[00:00:56,923 --> 00:00:58,892]
方三文：有可能是跟上市公司的CEO聊

[00:00:59,459 --> 00:01:01,594]
方三文：聊一聊他们公司的商业模式

[00:01:01,828 --> 00:01:03,229]
方三文：他们的行业竞争力

[00:01:04,097 --> 00:01:05,665]
方三文：也有可能是跟基金经理聊

[00:01:06,399 --> 00:01:08,134]
方三文：聊他们的投资理念

[00:01:08,234 --> 00:01:11,438]
方三文：投资框架和具体的投资的行为

[00:01:11,638 --> 00:01:13,206]
方三文：也有可能跟经济学家聊

[00:01:13,473 --> 00:01:17,710]
方三文：聊一聊他们对经济形势的看法

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方三文：我可以把大家的问题带给他们

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段永平：帮大家跟他们聊

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方三文：也可以理解我是大家的代问人

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段永平：我们就正式开始吧

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段永平：有一个用户的问题开始

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段永平：这个用户问了个特别无厘头的问题

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段永平：你是如何度过平常的一天

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方三文：比如说今天

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段永平：打球啊

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段永平：运动

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段永平：天天如此吗

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段永平：差不多吧

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方三文：也没有什么

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方三文：就是不同的球场打球

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方三文：唯一变化的是这个球场的地点

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方三文：还有打球的伙伴

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方三文：伙伴有时候有 有时候没有

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段永平：明白了

[00:02:04,057 --> 00:02:06,025]
段永平：这个就是你的平淡无奇的一天

[00:02:06,559 --> 00:02:08,695]
段永平：挺好 这没有什么平淡无奇

[00:02:08,695 --> 00:02:09,395]
段永平：这就正常

[00:02:11,030 --> 00:02:12,265]
段永平：那么刚才我说起

[00:02:12,832 --> 00:02:14,934]
段永平：在中国南方的生活

[00:02:14,934 --> 00:02:16,402]
段永平：也有用户想问你

[00:02:17,137 --> 00:02:18,771]
段永平：这个叫“读书匠老张”的问题

[00:02:19,305 --> 00:02:22,008]
段永平：他说小时候你是在什么样的环境下

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段永平：长大的

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段永平：这个成长的环境

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段永平：跟你现在的性格 成就

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段永平：有没有关系

[00:02:28,081 --> 00:02:29,616]
段永平：这个就不知道了

[00:02:29,616 --> 00:02:31,618]
段永平：我是在南昌出生的

[00:02:31,851 --> 00:02:32,886]
段永平：那么六岁左右

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段永平：跟父母下放

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方三文：到江西安福县来

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方三文：那么在安福县搬了五六个地方

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方三文：一直在农村 一直最后

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段永平：再搬回南昌旁边一个石岗

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段永平：那就确实吃过苦

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段永平：回石岗的时候就上中学了已经

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段永平：从石岗考的大学

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段永平：大学毕业以后分配到北京

[00:02:58,912 --> 00:03:00,413]
段永平：工作了几年读了一个研究生

[00:03:01,314 --> 00:03:02,815]
段永平：再去了广东

[00:03:03,616 --> 00:03:06,186]
段永平：去了佛山再去了中山然后去了东莞

[00:03:08,021 --> 00:03:10,223]
段永平：然后就来这了（加州）

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段永平：我觉得可能这个用户他要问的

[00:03:13,092 --> 00:03:14,227]
段永平：想问的细一点

[00:03:14,427 --> 00:03:16,396]
段永平：你能不能描述一下

[00:03:16,663 --> 00:03:18,064]
段永平：你的家庭环境啊

[00:03:18,198 --> 00:03:21,200]
段永平：以及父母对你施加了怎么样的教育

[00:03:21,367 --> 00:03:23,069]
段永平：这些东西其实没有太大意思

[00:03:24,070 --> 00:03:25,772]
段永平：我在哪条河里摸过鱼

[00:03:26,139 --> 00:03:27,373]
段永平：对他能有什么帮助

[00:03:27,674 --> 00:03:29,108]
段永平：我很难讲的清楚

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段永平：那我有

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段永平：有哥哥有妹妹

[00:03:32,478 --> 00:03:35,048]
段永平：那我们性格也各不一样

[00:03:35,515 --> 00:03:37,217]
方三文：那父母到底有多大的帮助

[00:03:37,217 --> 00:03:38,184]
方三文：其实我也不知道

[00:03:38,885 --> 00:03:39,886]
方三文：但是简单讲呢

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方三文：我觉得我父母确实对我

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方三文：对我们吧 就对小孩子们都挺好

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段永平：他不像

[00:03:46,292 --> 00:03:48,895]
段永平：现在很多父母就很卷啊

[00:03:48,895 --> 00:03:50,597]
段永平：就是逼小孩这个那个

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段永平：我爸妈好像不太怎么管我

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段永平：所以我小时候

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段永平：就对我们很好

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段永平：但是

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方三文：没有太多的要求

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方三文：一点点吧

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方三文：所以我觉得我还是比较有安全感的

[00:04:04,677 --> 00:04:05,178]
方三文：就不是说

[00:04:05,745 --> 00:04:06,446]
方三文：怕这个怕那个

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段永平：所以很多东西我自己是可以做决策的

[00:04:08,848 --> 00:04:09,749]
段永平：我从小就

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段永平：很习惯自己做决策

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段永平：我觉得这点可能跟我的父母有很大的关系

[00:04:14,587 --> 00:04:16,623]
段永平：你是有充分的自由的

[00:04:17,390 --> 00:04:19,525]
段永平：你认为你对它是一个价值判断

[00:04:19,525 --> 00:04:21,060]
段永平：认为这个是好的

[00:04:21,894 --> 00:04:24,631]
段永平：我觉得可能父母对子女就

[00:04:25,331 --> 00:04:26,532]
段永平：算是有充分的信任

[00:04:27,066 --> 00:04:29,702]
段永平：也许是 就是我这么想的

[00:04:30,370 --> 00:04:31,137]
段永平：或许他就是不管

[00:04:32,171 --> 00:04:33,973]
段永平：不敢管我 谁知道

[00:04:34,207 --> 00:04:37,977]
段永平：那我们再推一下现在你也是人的父母

[00:04:38,211 --> 00:04:42,281]
段永平：你现在也是这样对你的子女的

[00:04:42,382 --> 00:04:45,151]
段永平：我是的 我觉得我自己做不到的事情

[00:04:45,485 --> 00:04:46,552]
段永平：我不要求小孩

[00:04:47,387 --> 00:04:48,087]
段永平：就是他想玩

[00:04:48,087 --> 00:04:49,555]
段永平：我那时候我也想玩

[00:04:49,555 --> 00:04:50,223]
方三文：玩吧

[00:04:50,890 --> 00:04:51,557]
方三文：但是

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方三文：我发现小孩他们都挺自觉的

[00:04:53,826 --> 00:04:54,827]
方三文：该做作业他做

[00:04:56,029 --> 00:04:57,530]
段永平：该怎么样怎么样

[00:04:59,799 --> 00:05:01,267]
段永平：边界的东西要告诉他

[00:05:01,267 --> 00:05:02,969]
段永平：就什么东西你是不能做的

[00:05:03,703 --> 00:05:04,637]
段永平：我觉得这个很重要

[00:05:05,238 --> 00:05:07,373]
段永平：包括有的礼貌的东西呀

[00:05:07,373 --> 00:05:08,741]
段永平：但是不是强求的

[00:05:09,042 --> 00:05:11,844]
方三文：不是说天天就抓到小孩去训他

[00:05:12,478 --> 00:05:13,513]
方三文：我觉得对小孩来讲

[00:05:13,513 --> 00:05:15,114]
段永平：最主要给他们安全感很重要

[00:05:16,182 --> 00:05:18,451]
段永平：没有安全感人很难理性

[00:05:19,752 --> 00:05:21,721]
段永平：就是设定边界充分信任

[00:05:21,788 --> 00:05:22,088]
段永平：是的

[00:05:22,989 --> 00:05:25,591]
段永平：那么在你的童年和少年时期

[00:05:26,125 --> 00:05:29,862]
段永平：你有过什么人生的目标吗

[00:05:29,862 --> 00:05:30,930]
段永平：我没有什么目标

[00:05:31,164 --> 00:05:31,497]
段永平：我觉得

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段永平：我们那个年代本来我也不知道

[00:05:34,467 --> 00:05:35,334]
段永平：反正我是没有

[00:05:35,468 --> 00:05:36,669]
段永平：我这人一直胸无大志

[00:05:36,669 --> 00:05:38,237]
段永平：我觉得自己就是普通人

[00:05:38,905 --> 00:05:40,740]
方三文：能过好小日子就挺好

[00:05:40,907 --> 00:05:42,508]
方三文：那也可以描述这个目标

[00:05:42,508 --> 00:05:44,410]
方三文：就是把生活过好

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方三文：我甚至都没有那么想

[00:05:48,514 --> 00:05:51,818]
段永平：反正我就真的确实没有什么

[00:05:52,285 --> 00:05:54,387]
段永平：我不是那种说自己非要干点事情

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段永平：成就点啥

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段永平：我还真没有那个想法

[00:05:58,658 --> 00:06:00,193]
段永平：我就做我自己喜欢做的事情

[00:06:00,326 --> 00:06:01,227]
段永平：我觉得就挺重要

[00:06:01,327 --> 00:06:03,463]
段永平：你做自己喜欢做的事

[00:06:03,463 --> 00:06:04,731]
段永平：你就比较开心

[00:06:04,731 --> 00:06:07,133]
段永平：在你的童年和少年时代

[00:06:07,734 --> 00:06:11,404]
段永平：有没有人这样描述过你

[00:06:11,704 --> 00:06:14,440]
段永平：说你有跟别人不同的地方

[00:06:14,774 --> 00:06:15,708]
段永平：没听说过

[00:06:15,708 --> 00:06:17,577]
段永平：比如说这小子一看将来

[00:06:17,577 --> 00:06:19,779]
段永平：我是记得上中学的时候

[00:06:20,580 --> 00:06:21,614]
段永平：有过一个老师

[00:06:22,548 --> 00:06:23,249]
段永平：确实

[00:06:23,382 --> 00:06:24,717]
段永平：说段永平

[00:06:24,884 --> 00:06:26,285]
段永平：你不能像他们那样

[00:06:26,552 --> 00:06:27,920]
方三文：不学习 光贪玩

[00:06:28,755 --> 00:06:29,889]
段永平：我就想我凭什么

[00:06:32,358 --> 00:06:34,560]
段永平：我不知道为什么那个老师会这么讲

[00:06:36,262 --> 00:06:37,630]
段永平：他可能觉得我读书还不错

[00:06:38,264 --> 00:06:39,332]
段永平：我确实读书还不错

[00:06:39,332 --> 00:06:40,700]
段永平：我后来考大学的时候

[00:06:40,700 --> 00:06:42,335]
段永平：一突击就上去了

[00:06:42,769 --> 00:06:44,904]
段永平：那确实我们那个年代

[00:06:44,904 --> 00:06:47,340]
段永平：好多人大部分人是考不上大学的

[00:06:48,741 --> 00:06:50,176]
段永平：所以那个老师可能是对的

[00:06:51,144 --> 00:06:51,944]
段永平：但我也没辜负他

[00:06:51,944 --> 00:06:52,879]
段永平：我还是考上大学

[00:06:53,146 --> 00:06:56,249]
段永平：他是觉得你至少在学习能力方面

[00:06:57,083 --> 00:06:58,418]
段永平：可能比别人强

[00:06:58,584 --> 00:06:59,552]
段永平：所以他对你有一定的期望

[00:06:59,552 --> 00:07:01,454]
段永平：那个是一件很奇怪的事情

[00:07:01,454 --> 00:07:02,655]
段永平：因为那是个英语老师

[00:07:03,156 --> 00:07:04,690]
段永平：我英语一塌糊涂

[00:07:04,924 --> 00:07:06,726]
段永平：为什么他会觉得我学习能力强

[00:07:06,726 --> 00:07:08,494]
段永平：我完全一头雾水

[00:07:09,395 --> 00:07:11,931]
段永平：我的英文是上大学以后才学的

[00:07:12,598 --> 00:07:14,267]
段永平：中学完全没有学ABCD

[00:07:14,567 --> 00:07:15,902]
段永平：26个字母会

[00:07:15,902 --> 00:07:18,004]
方三文：但是大概单词不超过24个

[00:07:18,571 --> 00:07:19,305]
段永平：大概那个水平

[00:07:19,772 --> 00:07:22,241]
段永平：就是完全没有学过英文

[00:07:22,241 --> 00:07:23,476]
段永平：但是那个英文老师说

[00:07:24,677 --> 00:07:26,379]
段永平：我跟别的小孩不一样

[00:07:26,879 --> 00:07:27,613]
段永平：所以你这么讲

[00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:28,881]
段永平：我就突然想起了

[00:07:28,881 --> 00:07:30,516]
段永平：有人说你不一样的时候

[00:07:30,516 --> 00:07:32,084]
段永平：你真的是会记住的

[00:07:32,485 --> 00:07:32,952]
方三文：很有趣

[00:07:33,986 --> 00:07:35,021]
方三文：但是为什么 不知道

[00:07:35,388 --> 00:07:36,322]
方三文：也没有再交流

[00:07:36,322 --> 00:07:39,292]
方三文：但这个东西至少对你是个激励

[00:07:39,592 --> 00:07:40,226]
方三文：也没有

[00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:42,061]
方三文：只是记得这件事情

[00:07:43,763 --> 00:07:45,498]
方三文：我觉得好像没有觉得

[00:07:45,765 --> 00:07:47,867]
方三文：这个事有什么了不起

[00:07:47,867 --> 00:07:48,901]
段永平：你要不说我早忘了

[00:07:49,068 --> 00:07:50,403]
段永平：你一说你看很有意思

[00:07:50,403 --> 00:07:51,537]
段永平：我还就想起这事来了

[00:07:51,771 --> 00:07:53,172]
段永平：那么你上的大学

[00:07:53,172 --> 00:07:55,675]
段永平：本科学的是工科类的专业

[00:07:56,075 --> 00:07:58,377]
段永平：你说的走的是理工男的这个路子

[00:07:58,778 --> 00:07:59,679]
段永平：但是后来呢

[00:07:59,679 --> 00:08:01,814]
段永平：你又去读了个研究生

[00:08:02,281 --> 00:08:03,549]
段永平：应该说是叫商科吧

[00:08:03,549 --> 00:08:04,217]
段永平：这个方面的

[00:08:04,684 --> 00:08:05,618]
段永平：在这个过程中

[00:08:05,618 --> 00:08:07,487]
段永平：是不是你觉得自己的这种

[00:08:07,787 --> 00:08:09,555]
段永平：兴趣发生了一些变化

[00:08:09,856 --> 00:08:10,490]
段永平：其实没有

[00:08:10,656 --> 00:08:11,657]
段永平：首先我要强调

[00:08:11,657 --> 00:08:13,059]
段永平：我读的不是商科

[00:08:14,093 --> 00:08:15,728]
段永平：我读的是计量经济

[00:08:15,728 --> 00:08:17,563]
段永平：实际上是经济类的

[00:08:17,730 --> 00:08:20,299]
段永平：其实我认为也是工科的

[00:08:21,167 --> 00:08:22,068]
段永平：它是一个

[00:08:22,235 --> 00:08:24,136]
段永平：就是很逻辑的东西

[00:08:25,171 --> 00:08:26,439]
段永平：商科是什么 不知道

[00:08:26,439 --> 00:08:28,341]
段永平：没有正儿八经的学过

[00:08:28,341 --> 00:08:30,009]
段永平：但是商科我觉得应该也是很多

[00:08:30,309 --> 00:08:31,811]
段永平：也是逻辑的东西在里头

[00:08:32,011 --> 00:08:33,145]
段永平：所以其实也很像

[00:08:33,312 --> 00:08:34,881]
段永平：我不知道为什么要这么分啊

[00:08:34,981 --> 00:08:36,482]
段永平：当初反正就是

[00:08:36,482 --> 00:08:38,084]
段永平：因为我没有从事过技术

[00:08:38,951 --> 00:08:40,386]
段永平：虽然我是学的工科

[00:08:40,386 --> 00:08:42,788]
段永平：但是大学毕业以后

[00:08:43,723 --> 00:08:45,524]
段永平：就分配到北京电子管厂

[00:08:45,925 --> 00:08:50,129]
段永平：然后在干部科帮忙 帮了半年多

[00:08:50,363 --> 00:08:51,964]
段永平：后来去了教育中心

[00:08:52,365 --> 00:08:55,034]
方三文：当了成人教育的老师

[00:08:55,401 --> 00:08:57,436]
方三文：教了两年多数学

[00:08:57,937 --> 00:08:59,839]
方三文：然后就觉得没太大意思

[00:09:00,106 --> 00:09:02,108]
方三文：后来有个机会考研

[00:09:02,275 --> 00:09:03,876]
方三文：让我就给混上去了

[00:09:03,876 --> 00:09:05,077]
段永平：反正就考上了

[00:09:05,244 --> 00:09:06,312]
段永平：就考了人大

[00:09:08,047 --> 00:09:09,181]
段永平：也是想换个口味

[00:09:09,448 --> 00:09:12,451]
段永平：因为我对我学的工科的东西

[00:09:12,618 --> 00:09:13,786]
段永平：我不是那么有兴趣

[00:09:13,886 --> 00:09:15,588]
段永平：人是在探索

[00:09:16,222 --> 00:09:18,457]
段永平：想办法找自己喜欢的东西

[00:09:18,791 --> 00:09:19,492]
段永平：那我觉得

[00:09:20,192 --> 00:09:21,794]
段永平：人大对我还是有帮助的

[00:09:21,794 --> 00:09:24,063]
段永平：你在大学里面

[00:09:24,063 --> 00:09:26,365]
段永平：可能在本科学了一些工科的基础知识

[00:09:27,099 --> 00:09:29,702]
段永平：在人大学了一些经济学的知识

[00:09:29,835 --> 00:09:32,071]
段永平：你觉得这里的学习

[00:09:32,071 --> 00:09:35,207]
段永平：对你以后的人生影响大吗

[00:09:35,341 --> 00:09:37,710]
段永平：我觉得大学里头最主要是学到了

[00:09:38,611 --> 00:09:39,812]
段永平：学习的方法

[00:09:39,812 --> 00:09:40,947]
段永平：就是你怎么去学习

[00:09:41,247 --> 00:09:42,615]
段永平：然后你建立了一个信心

[00:09:42,615 --> 00:09:44,050]
段永平：你碰到不懂的东西的时候

[00:09:44,050 --> 00:09:45,318]
段永平：你是可以学会的

[00:09:45,885 --> 00:09:46,953]
段永平：所以这样的话

[00:09:46,953 --> 00:09:49,255]
段永平：你对未来的恐惧就会少很多

[00:09:49,522 --> 00:09:50,623]
段永平：不然你什么都害怕

[00:09:50,790 --> 00:09:51,691]
段永平：我确实见很多人

[00:09:51,691 --> 00:09:53,159]
段永平：那也不是我们同学都行

[00:09:53,826 --> 00:09:55,861]
段永平：我觉得他们用那智能手机

[00:09:55,861 --> 00:09:57,463]
段永平：好像有时候打个字都打不会

[00:09:57,463 --> 00:09:58,230]
段永平：我就觉得很奇怪

[00:09:58,230 --> 00:09:59,532]
段永平：我以前也不会打字的

[00:09:59,899 --> 00:10:00,232]
段永平：就发现

[00:10:00,266 --> 00:10:02,034]
方三文：现在这么方便

[00:10:02,101 --> 00:10:02,835]
方三文：就学一下呗

[00:10:02,935 --> 00:10:04,103]
段永平：那些很快就学会了

[00:10:04,103 --> 00:10:06,105]
段永平：也养成了学习的习惯

[00:10:06,439 --> 00:10:06,939]
段永平：很重要

[00:10:07,506 --> 00:10:08,574]
段永平：研究生我觉得

[00:10:08,774 --> 00:10:12,011]
段永平：其实就等于你换了一个行当

[00:10:12,144 --> 00:10:16,015]
段永平：然后多了一些不一样的知识

[00:10:17,249 --> 00:10:19,518]
段永平：眼界也会有一点点不一样

[00:10:19,719 --> 00:10:21,187]
段永平：但是其实最主要的就是

[00:10:21,187 --> 00:10:22,655]
段永平：从原来那个地方出来了

[00:10:23,122 --> 00:10:24,457]
段永平：因为我们那个时候是穷学生

[00:10:25,057 --> 00:10:27,793]
段永平：你想出去看一眼都没钱的

[00:10:28,427 --> 00:10:29,395]
段永平：那去读了个书

[00:10:29,395 --> 00:10:31,630]
段永平：然后我又换了个新工作

[00:10:31,797 --> 00:10:34,033]
段永平：就是研究生毕业以后

[00:10:34,100 --> 00:10:35,301]
段永平：就去广东了

[00:10:35,301 --> 00:10:35,935]
段永平：离开北京了

[00:10:36,936 --> 00:10:39,005]
段永平：那么这过程当中

[00:10:39,005 --> 00:10:40,172]
段永平：那都是在学习

[00:10:40,473 --> 00:10:41,540]
方三文：当然也会吃很多苦

[00:10:41,741 --> 00:10:44,076]
方三文：你觉得学到的具体的知识

[00:10:44,110 --> 00:10:45,211]
方三文：可能是没那么重要的

[00:10:46,045 --> 00:10:46,812]
方三文：学到的

[00:10:47,313 --> 00:10:48,414]
方三文：我都不记得都学了什么

[00:10:48,581 --> 00:10:49,548]
方三文：方法和态度

[00:10:49,582 --> 00:10:50,816]
段永平：我觉得是有点作用

[00:10:51,117 --> 00:10:52,885]
段永平：方法和你的这种

[00:10:53,519 --> 00:10:55,888]
段永平：能够学会东西的这种信心很重要

[00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:57,590]
段永平：就你碰到什么东西

[00:10:57,590 --> 00:10:58,457]
段永平：你不会害怕

[00:10:59,392 --> 00:11:00,993]
段永平：你会想着去学习

[00:11:01,093 --> 00:11:02,628]
段永平：而不是感到恐惧

[00:11:03,062 --> 00:11:04,397]
段永平：我觉得很多人是恐惧的

[00:11:04,397 --> 00:11:06,098]
方三文：我让我妈妈学怎么用iPad

[00:11:06,632 --> 00:11:08,000]
方三文：20年前就让她学

[00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:09,902]
方三文：现在她肯定反正也不会学了

[00:11:11,704 --> 00:11:12,772]
段永平：我妈已经100岁了

[00:11:13,105 --> 00:11:16,042]
段永平：那么我觉得70多 80多的时候我让她学

[00:11:16,042 --> 00:11:17,510]
段永平：她是坚决不学的

[00:11:17,710 --> 00:11:18,477]
段永平：那些我学不会

[00:11:18,677 --> 00:11:19,745]
段永平：她就认为她学不会

[00:11:19,745 --> 00:11:20,513]
段永平：所以她就不学

[00:11:20,513 --> 00:11:21,847]
段永平：其实那个东西很简单

[00:11:23,549 --> 00:11:24,550]
段永平：我们也是学的

[00:11:24,550 --> 00:11:26,185]
段永平：跟年龄其实没有关系

[00:11:26,585 --> 00:11:28,921]
段永平：你研究生毕业以后

[00:11:29,422 --> 00:11:31,257]
段永平：等于是南下广东了

[00:11:32,358 --> 00:11:35,027]
段永平：当时这个决定是怎么做出的

[00:11:35,061 --> 00:11:36,929]
段永平：你可能应该也有其他的选择

[00:11:37,096 --> 00:11:39,398]
段永平：当时整个社会背景是怎么样的

[00:11:39,932 --> 00:11:42,268]
段永平：确实我本来是可以留在北京的

[00:11:42,902 --> 00:11:45,471]
段永平：有两个单位收我

[00:11:45,705 --> 00:11:47,706]
段永平：后来刚好碰见有个广东的企业

[00:11:47,706 --> 00:11:49,241]
段永平：在中关村招人

[00:11:49,408 --> 00:11:50,943]
段永平：招人我就去了

[00:11:51,811 --> 00:11:54,180]
段永平：去了那个地方也没那么理想

[00:11:54,246 --> 00:11:56,115]
段永平：所以又再换到中山的

[00:11:56,115 --> 00:11:57,783]
段永平：就是等于你做出了

[00:11:57,783 --> 00:11:59,852]
段永平：南下广东的这个决定

[00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:01,854]
段永平：某种程度上可以理解

[00:12:01,854 --> 00:12:04,156]
段永平：你是投奔了市场

[00:12:04,156 --> 00:12:04,490]
段永平：不是

[00:12:04,690 --> 00:12:05,858]
段永平：我们其实走投无路

[00:12:06,292 --> 00:12:07,993]
段永平：我们没有别的路可以选择

[00:12:07,993 --> 00:12:09,361]
段永平：就是去尝试一下

[00:12:09,528 --> 00:12:10,663]
段永平：那时候还年轻嘛

[00:12:12,765 --> 00:12:13,899]
段永平：试一试总是好的

[00:12:13,899 --> 00:12:17,903]
段永平：我觉得我是有一个习惯

[00:12:17,903 --> 00:12:20,106]
段永平：就是我觉得不合适的东西

[00:12:20,106 --> 00:12:21,040]
段永平：我要赶紧离开

[00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,476]
段永平：那我觉得北京对我来讲不合适

[00:12:24,143 --> 00:12:25,511]
段永平：我待着不舒服

[00:12:25,678 --> 00:12:26,912]
段永平：广东怎么样我并不知道

[00:12:27,746 --> 00:12:29,148]
段永平：那我不去我永远不知道

[00:12:29,548 --> 00:12:31,884]
段永平：但是我知道我待在一个我不想待的地方

[00:12:32,551 --> 00:12:33,719]
段永平：我觉得这个不合理

[00:12:34,186 --> 00:12:35,087]
段永平：所以我就离开

[00:12:35,354 --> 00:12:36,922]
段永平：我还曾经考虑过去海南的

[00:12:37,189 --> 00:12:38,457]
段永平：后来了解过海南觉得

[00:12:39,191 --> 00:12:41,093]
段永平：去海南不如去广东

[00:12:41,393 --> 00:12:43,796]
段永平：所以我想有很多决策都是

[00:12:44,163 --> 00:12:46,832]
段永平：如果你的决策是基于你很长远的去想

[00:12:46,832 --> 00:12:48,768]
段永平：你的未来到底是想怎么样子的

[00:12:49,168 --> 00:12:51,704]
段永平：你那个决策可能犯错误的概率就会低一些

[00:12:52,371 --> 00:12:54,473]
段永平：很多人说你去广东

[00:12:55,207 --> 00:12:56,075]
方三文：你将来养老怎么办

[00:12:56,609 --> 00:12:58,210]
方三文：我说现在这年龄我养什么老啊

[00:12:58,344 --> 00:13:00,012]
方三文：我得先出去看一看

[00:13:00,412 --> 00:13:01,380]
方三文：当然你现在说

[00:13:01,380 --> 00:13:03,115]
段永平：那就是我运气好

[00:13:04,183 --> 00:13:04,783]
段永平：走对了路

[00:13:04,783 --> 00:13:05,451]
段永平：但是实际上

[00:13:05,451 --> 00:13:07,686]
段永平：中间很多决策都是

[00:13:07,686 --> 00:13:10,489]
段永平：因为我觉得现在这个环境不舒服

[00:13:10,489 --> 00:13:11,824]
段永平：我必须要离开

[00:13:11,824 --> 00:13:13,459]
段永平：包括我到了广东以后

[00:13:13,459 --> 00:13:15,461]
段永平：我的第一份工作也是

[00:13:15,461 --> 00:13:17,062]
段永平：我三个月就离开了

[00:13:17,062 --> 00:13:19,632]
段永平：我觉得那个我是走对了路

[00:13:19,632 --> 00:13:20,599]
段永平：但是进错了门

[00:13:20,599 --> 00:13:22,001]
段永平：我又离开了

[00:13:22,001 --> 00:13:22,835]
段永平：然后去的中山

[00:13:23,335 --> 00:13:24,770]
段永平：那么到了中山

[00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:26,338]
段永平：后来就做成了小霸王

[00:13:27,406 --> 00:13:28,674]
段永平：小霸王做得那么好

[00:13:29,108 --> 00:13:30,643]
方三文：但是由于机制的问题

[00:13:30,676 --> 00:13:32,111]
方三文：我觉得也不合适

[00:13:32,111 --> 00:13:33,145]
方三文：我还是离开

[00:13:33,445 --> 00:13:35,047]
方三文：能不能讲一讲

[00:13:35,714 --> 00:13:37,750]
段永平：这个机制的不合适

[00:13:37,750 --> 00:13:39,251]
段永平：主要具体是怎么样的

[00:13:39,852 --> 00:13:41,253]
段永平：最早开始做的时候

[00:13:41,687 --> 00:13:43,656]
段永平：说我们是有股份的

[00:13:43,756 --> 00:13:45,524]
段永平：最早大老板说三七开

[00:13:45,691 --> 00:13:47,293]
段永平：后来改二八了

[00:13:47,293 --> 00:13:48,627]
段永平：后来说一九了

[00:13:49,395 --> 00:13:50,229]
段永平：那我招人

[00:13:50,229 --> 00:13:51,997]
段永平：我跟弟兄们都是有承诺的

[00:13:52,198 --> 00:13:54,400]
段永平：最后发现我就没办法兑现这个承诺

[00:13:55,201 --> 00:13:56,969]
段永平：那一九将来也是会没有的呀

[00:13:57,069 --> 00:13:58,304]
段永平：那我到1994年

[00:13:58,304 --> 00:13:59,371]
段永平：1995年的时候

[00:13:59,371 --> 00:14:01,106]
段永平：我觉得这个肯定不行

[00:14:02,107 --> 00:14:02,841]
段永平：所以我就决定

[00:14:02,841 --> 00:14:03,742]
段永平：我就不干了

[00:14:03,976 --> 00:14:05,144]
段永平：至于说不干了以后

[00:14:05,678 --> 00:14:07,846]
段永平：又干了那是另外一件事情

[00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,616]
段永平：所以它其实并没有必然的关联

[00:14:10,683 --> 00:14:12,551]
方三文：这个不干了这里面

[00:14:12,551 --> 00:14:13,986]
方三文：可能我理解

[00:14:13,986 --> 00:14:14,987]
方三文：可能包括两部分

[00:14:14,987 --> 00:14:16,689]
方三文：一部分是你希望有

[00:14:16,689 --> 00:14:18,657]
方三文：股份这种形式的激励

[00:14:19,124 --> 00:14:19,992]
方三文：第二个是

[00:14:20,693 --> 00:14:22,361]
段永平：你跟他之间希望是有

[00:14:22,661 --> 00:14:24,763]
段永平：好的契约关系之类

[00:14:24,763 --> 00:14:26,131]
段永平：不是说有没有股份激励

[00:14:26,131 --> 00:14:27,433]
段永平：因为一开始是有的嘛

[00:14:27,633 --> 00:14:29,468]
段永平：那你没有契约

[00:14:29,468 --> 00:14:30,736]
段永平：你就不可信了

[00:14:30,870 --> 00:14:31,237]
段永平：不可信

[00:14:31,237 --> 00:14:33,138]
段永平：你跟我讲什么都是不可信的

[00:14:33,339 --> 00:14:34,540]
段永平：你有一次两次

[00:14:34,540 --> 00:14:36,609]
段永平：难道你还要有第三次吗

[00:14:37,343 --> 00:14:38,510]
段永平：就像你这个

[00:14:38,510 --> 00:14:39,879]
方三文：刮那个瓶盖

[00:14:39,879 --> 00:14:41,013]
方三文：刮出谢了

[00:14:41,013 --> 00:14:42,514]
方三文：你还继续刮完它吗

[00:14:42,514 --> 00:14:44,416]
方三文：你说两个字你刮出一个字

[00:14:44,416 --> 00:14:45,718]
方三文：你肯定就不往下刮了吗

[00:14:46,252 --> 00:14:47,453]
段永平：我就是刮到那个字

[00:14:48,020 --> 00:14:48,420]
段永平：就觉得

[00:14:49,255 --> 00:14:51,690]
段永平：这个我肯定不能再待下去了

[00:14:51,690 --> 00:14:53,192]
段永平：你看我离开的时候

[00:14:53,192 --> 00:14:54,126]
段永平：是30年前

[00:14:54,693 --> 00:14:56,428]
段永平：那么离开了这个

[00:14:56,762 --> 00:14:58,197]
段永平：小霸王之后

[00:14:58,197 --> 00:15:00,799]
段永平：其实是到东莞去

[00:15:00,799 --> 00:15:02,067]
段永平：创办这个步步高

[00:15:02,134 --> 00:15:03,569]
段永平：那么你创办了

[00:15:03,569 --> 00:15:04,470]
段永平：步步高的时候

[00:15:04,703 --> 00:15:07,806]
段永平：是不是非常清晰的

[00:15:07,806 --> 00:15:08,641]
段永平：解决了

[00:15:09,341 --> 00:15:10,809]
段永平：小霸王那边的这个问题

[00:15:11,143 --> 00:15:14,947]
段永平：小霸王的问题并不是它没有股份制

[00:15:14,947 --> 00:15:18,450]
段永平：是它没有兑现这个承诺

[00:15:18,684 --> 00:15:18,984]
段永平：那我们

[00:15:19,685 --> 00:15:20,986]
段永平：我们当然不会有这个问题

[00:15:21,887 --> 00:15:24,723]
段永平：所以我们并没有解决那个问题

[00:15:24,857 --> 00:15:26,492]
段永平：我们从开始就没有那个问题

[00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:28,727]
段永平：我们是什么样就是什么样的

[00:15:28,727 --> 00:15:32,264]
段永平：我们一直都就大家合作的都挺好

[00:15:32,464 --> 00:15:33,399]
段永平：说什么就是什么

[00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:33,966]
段永平：所以大家很放心

[00:15:33,966 --> 00:15:35,501]
段永平：彼此有很高的信任

[00:15:35,668 --> 00:15:37,836]
段永平：我想原来那大老板也是后悔的

[00:15:37,836 --> 00:15:39,972]
段永平：你再回头看

[00:15:40,239 --> 00:15:43,942]
方三文：如果在小霸王当时的那个架构下面

[00:15:44,009 --> 00:15:47,112]
方三文：你觉得有没有可能达到一种

[00:15:47,112 --> 00:15:49,448]
方三文：比较理想的治理状态

[00:15:50,149 --> 00:15:51,417]
方三文：我不知道怎么回答这个问题

[00:15:51,583 --> 00:15:52,518]
段永平：因为事实上没有

[00:15:53,652 --> 00:15:56,255]
段永平：那怎么才能够理想

[00:15:57,122 --> 00:15:57,823]
段永平：我不知道

[00:15:58,457 --> 00:16:01,260]
段永平：因为那个不是我的问题

[00:16:01,260 --> 00:16:02,594]
段永平：那是别人的问题

[00:16:03,295 --> 00:16:07,232]
段永平：我并没有说因为利益的问题离开

[00:16:07,566 --> 00:16:09,835]
段永平：我是认为因为信任的问题

[00:16:10,002 --> 00:16:11,804]
段永平：其实我那个时候收入就已经很好了

[00:16:13,072 --> 00:16:17,976]
段永平：但是没有太大的意思

[00:16:18,510 --> 00:16:20,479]
段永平：你要说财富自由我那时候就财富自由

[00:16:21,313 --> 00:16:23,649]
段永平：我们其实分成它也是分的

[00:16:24,283 --> 00:16:25,417]
段永平：只是它将来会怎么样

[00:16:25,551 --> 00:16:26,085]
段永平：我不知道

[00:16:26,251 --> 00:16:27,519]
段永平：它有没有办法建立股份制

[00:16:27,519 --> 00:16:29,788]
段永平：有没有办法让你感觉到

[00:16:29,855 --> 00:16:31,590]
段永平：它这个机制是保障你的

[00:16:31,790 --> 00:16:33,759]
段永平：就像你看到有一些公司

[00:16:33,759 --> 00:16:36,228]
段永平：给股东分红都好像是恩赐一样

[00:16:36,528 --> 00:16:38,030]
段永平：那我觉得这个没有道理

[00:16:38,263 --> 00:16:40,599]
段永平：给股东分红那就是股东本来就该拿的

[00:16:40,599 --> 00:16:42,801]
段永平：那我员工拿到的分红就是员工该拿的

[00:16:42,801 --> 00:16:44,636]
段永平：就像我们发奖金的时候

[00:16:44,803 --> 00:16:46,038]
段永平：有人说谢谢老板

[00:16:46,038 --> 00:16:47,806]
段永平：我说这话不合适

[00:16:48,474 --> 00:16:51,610]
段永平：因为这是按契约发的奖金

[00:16:51,610 --> 00:16:53,112]
段永平：你不需要谢我的

[00:16:54,213 --> 00:16:55,080]
段永平：谢这个东西呢

[00:16:55,347 --> 00:16:57,049]
段永平：虽然大家顺口觉得拿到钱

[00:16:57,049 --> 00:16:57,816]
段永平：应该谢一下

[00:16:58,450 --> 00:16:59,551]
段永平：这个谢的不是地方

[00:16:59,752 --> 00:17:00,886]
段永平：那我再问个问题

[00:17:00,953 --> 00:17:03,355]
方三文：在创办步步高的时候

[00:17:03,822 --> 00:17:07,593]
方三文：你有没有有意识的去创造

[00:17:07,693 --> 00:17:09,294]
方三文：你喜欢的企业文化

[00:17:09,928 --> 00:17:12,164]
段永平：企业文化跟创始人有很大的关系

[00:17:12,831 --> 00:17:16,135]
段永平：它是一个你自己的个人品性

[00:17:16,235 --> 00:17:18,570]
段永平：然后你是找那些认同你的人

[00:17:19,004 --> 00:17:20,105]
段永平：认同你的文化的人

[00:17:20,472 --> 00:17:23,475]
段永平：所以我们的企业文化其实就是

[00:17:23,942 --> 00:17:24,743]
段永平：大家一堆人

[00:17:24,743 --> 00:17:26,211]
段永平：大家都认同了这个文化

[00:17:26,211 --> 00:17:27,780]
段永平：所以大家一起待下来了

[00:17:28,047 --> 00:17:28,714]
段永平：那不认同的人

[00:17:28,714 --> 00:17:30,115]
方三文：慢慢就会被淘汰掉

[00:17:30,115 --> 00:17:30,849]
方三文：会离开

[00:17:31,049 --> 00:17:31,917]
方三文：并不是说

[00:17:32,785 --> 00:17:35,020]
方三文：我从一开始写了一张纸

[00:17:35,087 --> 00:17:36,388]
方三文：然后照本宣科

[00:17:36,388 --> 00:17:39,091]
方三文：让大家一点一点弄下去

[00:17:39,491 --> 00:17:40,926]
段永平：我们很多文化也是在

[00:17:41,393 --> 00:17:43,495]
段永平：整个成长的过程当中

[00:17:43,495 --> 00:17:44,763]
段永平：也是在不停的进化

[00:17:45,431 --> 00:17:46,231]
段永平：包括我们的

[00:17:46,799 --> 00:17:47,699]
段永平：不为清单

[00:17:47,933 --> 00:17:49,802]
段永平：也是一条一条加上去的

[00:17:50,035 --> 00:17:50,936]
段永平：不能做的事情

[00:17:50,969 --> 00:17:52,538]
段永平：我们也是要通过很多

[00:17:52,638 --> 00:17:53,739]
段永平：血的教训才知道

[00:17:55,307 --> 00:17:56,742]
段永平：然后知道这个事不能做

[00:17:56,742 --> 00:17:57,676]
段永平：我们以后就不做了

[00:17:57,910 --> 00:17:58,677]
段永平：该怎么做事情

[00:17:58,710 --> 00:17:59,645]
段永平：学习的曲线

[00:18:00,245 --> 00:18:01,079]
段永平：这些东西也是

[00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:02,581]
段永平：也是慢慢慢慢的学

[00:18:03,115 --> 00:18:03,615]
段永平：我们公司

[00:18:04,416 --> 00:18:05,551]
段永平：从我离开以后

[00:18:05,984 --> 00:18:07,219]
段永平：因为我离开很久了

[00:18:07,319 --> 00:18:09,955]
段永平：不做CEO 20多年了嘛

[00:18:10,556 --> 00:18:11,390]
段永平：那确实

[00:18:12,124 --> 00:18:12,825]
段永平：不可同日而语

[00:18:12,825 --> 00:18:13,859]
段永平：现在很厉害

[00:18:14,226 --> 00:18:14,893]
段永平：我们那个时候

[00:18:15,094 --> 00:18:16,762]
段永平：其实就是一个很小的公司

[00:18:17,429 --> 00:18:19,231]
段永平：但我们那时候其实也挺厉害

[00:18:19,565 --> 00:18:20,799]
段永平：小霸王的时候我们就挺厉害

[00:18:22,067 --> 00:18:24,136]
段永平：你说的逐步形成的企业文化

[00:18:24,470 --> 00:18:26,738]
段永平：因为现在也积淀了很多年了

[00:18:27,039 --> 00:18:29,141]
段永平：你能够把它简单的概括一下吗

[00:18:29,374 --> 00:18:30,509]
段永平：我觉得我们

[00:18:31,110 --> 00:18:31,810]
段永平：最主要就是

[00:18:31,977 --> 00:18:33,612]
段永平：你看我们一直讲本分

[00:18:33,779 --> 00:18:34,379]
段永平：诚信

[00:18:35,314 --> 00:18:36,482]
段永平：讲用户导向

[00:18:36,715 --> 00:18:39,117]
段永平：我们的东西其实都很大白话的

[00:18:39,251 --> 00:18:41,720]
段永平：我们的愿景是叫做

[00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:43,422]
段永平：更健康更长久

[00:18:43,622 --> 00:18:45,257]
段永平：其实就不健康不长久的事不做

[00:18:45,591 --> 00:18:47,392]
段永平：其实就是很平常心的东西

[00:18:47,459 --> 00:18:49,661]
段永平：没有什么要怎么着

[00:18:49,661 --> 00:18:51,029]
段永平：要做500强啊

[00:18:51,029 --> 00:18:53,699]
段永平：要这个要那个啊

[00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:55,834]
段永平：虽然500强也不算什么

[00:18:56,101 --> 00:18:57,903]
段永平：现在可以找到的资料啊

[00:18:58,003 --> 00:18:59,671]
段永平：也是一个用户提供的

[00:18:59,671 --> 00:19:03,542]
段永平：他说 你大学三年级的时候

[00:19:03,542 --> 00:19:05,677]
段永平：就想到了这个本分文化

[00:19:05,677 --> 00:19:07,079]
段永平：有这个事吗

[00:19:07,946 --> 00:19:09,114]
段永平：大三的时候我是

[00:19:10,249 --> 00:19:12,251]
段永平：无意中看到德鲁克的一句话

[00:19:12,451 --> 00:19:13,452]
段永平：叫做做对的事情

[00:19:13,552 --> 00:19:14,386]
段永平：和把事情做对

[00:19:15,187 --> 00:19:16,688]
段永平：那个对我触动很大

[00:19:16,822 --> 00:19:20,926]
方三文：一下就把这个是非的东西给拿出来了

[00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:23,929]
方三文：你发现凡是你只要花五秒钟

[00:19:23,929 --> 00:19:24,796]
段永平：想一下这个事情

[00:19:25,430 --> 00:19:26,932]
段永平：你一辈子会省好多事

[00:19:27,299 --> 00:19:28,600]
段永平：像我们公司如果说

[00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:29,668]
段永平：坐下来说要讨论这个

[00:19:29,668 --> 00:19:32,738]
段永平：有没有钱挣的时候

[00:19:32,738 --> 00:19:34,306]
段永平：有时候会有一句话叫

[00:19:34,306 --> 00:19:35,474]
段永平：这是不是件对的事情

[00:19:35,674 --> 00:19:36,909]
段永平：就如果感觉不对的事情

[00:19:36,909 --> 00:19:37,910]
段永平：我们很容易就停止

[00:19:38,043 --> 00:19:39,678]
段永平：如果你只是讨论有没有钱挣

[00:19:41,213 --> 00:19:42,481]
段永平：你就会发现很复杂

[00:19:43,749 --> 00:19:44,449]
段永平：就因为很多事情

[00:19:44,449 --> 00:19:45,450]
段永平：你事先你并不知道

[00:19:45,951 --> 00:19:48,220]
段永平：但是有些事情是不对的事情

[00:19:48,921 --> 00:19:51,456]
段永平：你可能很早的时候

[00:19:51,456 --> 00:19:52,791]
段永平：你是会知道的

[00:19:52,791 --> 00:19:54,259]
段永平：当然有些事情你事后知道

[00:19:54,660 --> 00:19:55,661]
段永平：知道了也没有关系

[00:19:55,661 --> 00:19:57,429]
方三文：你以后不做就行了

[00:19:57,696 --> 00:19:59,264]
方三文：所以我们是会攒一些的

[00:19:59,264 --> 00:20:00,799]
方三文：我可以给你举个简单的例子

[00:20:00,799 --> 00:20:01,833]
方三文：你比方说我们想过

[00:20:02,467 --> 00:20:03,302]
方三文：我们不做代工

[00:20:05,170 --> 00:20:06,772]
方三文：那这个不是什么原则

[00:20:07,439 --> 00:20:09,341]
方三文：你因为做代工也可以

[00:20:09,508 --> 00:20:10,242]
方三文：也可以挣钱

[00:20:10,409 --> 00:20:11,977]
方三文：但是我就觉得那个不符合我们

[00:20:12,110 --> 00:20:13,412]
方三文：我们不擅长做这个

[00:20:13,812 --> 00:20:15,747]
方三文：然后我记得有一次郭台铭

[00:20:15,747 --> 00:20:16,548]
方三文：跟我聊天

[00:20:16,782 --> 00:20:18,016]
方三文：他就问我这个问题说

[00:20:19,418 --> 00:20:21,286]
段永平：我说我们有个不为清单

[00:20:21,286 --> 00:20:22,754]
段永平：他说举个例子

[00:20:23,055 --> 00:20:24,356]
段永平：我说我们不做代工

[00:20:24,356 --> 00:20:26,358]
段永平：他说哦 那什么意思

[00:20:26,358 --> 00:20:27,392]
段永平：我说你看我要做代工

[00:20:27,392 --> 00:20:28,560]
段永平：打不过你对不对

[00:20:28,827 --> 00:20:29,695]
段永平：他说那倒是

[00:20:30,495 --> 00:20:32,397]
段永平：但是我们做品牌我们做得很好

[00:20:32,631 --> 00:20:34,399]
段永平：我们企业也不比他们做得小

[00:20:35,133 --> 00:20:36,635]
段永平：但是我们不是靠代工

[00:20:36,902 --> 00:20:37,502]
段永平：跟他竞争的

[00:20:38,370 --> 00:20:39,438]
段永平：那代工你看做得好

[00:20:39,438 --> 00:20:41,139]
段永平：台积电做得多好

[00:20:41,573 --> 00:20:42,841]
段永平：那不是说代工不行

[00:20:42,841 --> 00:20:45,110]
段永平：只是代工对我们来讲是不合适的

[00:20:46,712 --> 00:20:47,412]
段永平：所以我们就停止

[00:20:47,713 --> 00:20:49,414]
段永平：所以你任何人来找我们做代工的生意

[00:20:49,414 --> 00:20:51,116]
段永平：我们就很简单就不做

[00:20:51,783 --> 00:20:53,518]
段永平：等于你们有一个

[00:20:54,319 --> 00:20:56,855]
段永平：是非的一个价值观在前面

[00:20:57,089 --> 00:20:59,291]
段永平：后来才是怎么做的方法论

[00:20:59,291 --> 00:20:59,591]
段永平：是的

[00:20:59,891 --> 00:21:02,461]
方三文：因为学习是有代价有曲线

[00:21:02,461 --> 00:21:03,295]
方三文：你可能会犯错

[00:21:03,662 --> 00:21:04,997]
方三文：所以你要做对的事情

[00:21:05,530 --> 00:21:07,733]
方三文：然后把事情做对的过程当中

[00:21:07,733 --> 00:21:09,167]
段永平：你犯的错误是可以接受的

[00:21:09,701 --> 00:21:11,136]
段永平：但是你做了错的事情

[00:21:11,336 --> 00:21:12,537]
段永平：你带来的恶果

[00:21:13,138 --> 00:21:14,172]
段永平：那是不应该的

[00:21:14,439 --> 00:21:15,741]
段永平：因为你明知是错的事情

[00:21:15,741 --> 00:21:16,608]
段永平：你为什么要去做呢

[00:21:16,808 --> 00:21:18,176]
段永平：当然你说你事先不知道

[00:21:18,176 --> 00:21:19,611]
段永平：那你下一次不再做

[00:21:19,678 --> 00:21:22,447]
段永平：也是一个很重要的东西

[00:21:22,447 --> 00:21:23,248]
段永平：这样你以后

[00:21:23,315 --> 00:21:25,017]
方三文：你几十年积累下来

[00:21:25,017 --> 00:21:26,518]
方三文：你就少犯很多错误

[00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,688]
方三文：也不会在原地折腾

[00:21:30,422 --> 00:21:32,557]
方三文：这里面有个叫“学习机器”的用户

[00:21:32,791 --> 00:21:33,859]
段永平：问的也是这个问题

[00:21:33,859 --> 00:21:34,860]
段永平：他的问题比较长

[00:21:35,494 --> 00:21:36,228]
段永平：他这么说的

[00:21:36,461 --> 00:21:38,330]
段永平：他说拥有共同价值观的人

[00:21:38,330 --> 00:21:39,631]
段永平：主要是培养出来的

[00:21:39,631 --> 00:21:40,732]
段永平：还是选择出来的

[00:21:40,932 --> 00:21:41,400]
段永平：选择出来

[00:21:41,667 --> 00:21:42,467]
段永平：选择出来的

[00:21:43,268 --> 00:21:44,236]
段永平：然后他说

[00:21:45,537 --> 00:21:49,274]
段永平：你在步步高里面有各位大佬

[00:21:49,274 --> 00:21:50,942]
段永平：这些优秀的人

[00:21:50,942 --> 00:21:53,945]
段永平：是不是不一定是刚工作的时候

[00:21:53,945 --> 00:21:54,713]
段永平：就被你认出来

[00:21:54,780 --> 00:21:58,450]
段永平：而是可能长期跟你一起工作的时候

[00:21:58,450 --> 00:21:59,418]
段永平：被熏陶出来的

[00:21:59,885 --> 00:22:01,553]
段永平：我觉得我们

[00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:03,755]
段永平：大部分人跟我都差不多

[00:22:04,022 --> 00:22:04,790]
段永平：都是普通人

[00:22:05,557 --> 00:22:07,859]
段永平：那么大家有认同的价值观

[00:22:07,993 --> 00:22:09,995]
段永平：当然你受过大学教育

[00:22:09,995 --> 00:22:10,896]
段永平：你学习还可以

[00:22:10,896 --> 00:22:11,797]
段永平：都是小学霸

[00:22:12,631 --> 00:22:14,433]
段永平：那他后面的东西

[00:22:14,433 --> 00:22:16,435]
段永平：都是慢慢的学习积累下来的

[00:22:16,435 --> 00:22:19,438]
段永平：但是价值观认同是非常重要的

[00:22:19,438 --> 00:22:20,605]
段永平：价值观要是不认同

[00:22:20,639 --> 00:22:21,773]
段永平：互相不认同

[00:22:22,007 --> 00:22:22,974]
段永平：这事没法干

[00:22:23,742 --> 00:22:24,976]
段永平：就是干不长的

[00:22:25,277 --> 00:22:27,112]
段永平：大家都各打各的小算盘

[00:22:27,779 --> 00:22:28,647]
段永平：肯定是要出问题

[00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:29,548]
段永平：我觉得我们公司

[00:22:29,548 --> 00:22:30,515]
段永平：你看我们三十年回去

[00:22:30,515 --> 00:22:31,917]
段永平：我们好多老同事

[00:22:32,217 --> 00:22:33,318]
方三文：都是从进了公司

[00:22:33,318 --> 00:22:34,720]
方三文：就一直在一直到退休

[00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,155]
方三文：有些还在工作的

[00:22:38,590 --> 00:22:40,459]
方三文：这个人最后问题是

[00:22:41,259 --> 00:22:44,329]
方三文：把一个人放在一个好的文化里面

[00:22:44,663 --> 00:22:48,500]
方三文：他会不会变成好的人的概率高一点

[00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,335]
方三文：就是可不可塑造的

[00:22:51,903 --> 00:22:52,938]
方三文：我觉得很难

[00:22:52,938 --> 00:22:55,540]
段永平：这可能会有一点点帮助

[00:22:55,674 --> 00:22:59,077]
方三文：人心里头都有善有恶

[00:22:59,578 --> 00:23:00,312]
方三文：他就发现

[00:23:00,479 --> 00:23:01,246]
方三文：有人到这

[00:23:01,380 --> 00:23:02,714]
方三文：发现你这个环境挺好

[00:23:02,714 --> 00:23:03,782]
方三文：那就是我们唤醒了

[00:23:03,782 --> 00:23:05,217]
方三文：他善的那一部分

[00:23:05,984 --> 00:23:06,518]
段永平：或者说

[00:23:06,651 --> 00:23:08,353]
段永平：他的价值观正确的那一部分

[00:23:08,353 --> 00:23:12,157]
段永平：他把恶的那一部分就藏起来了

[00:23:12,824 --> 00:23:14,893]
段永平：但是很恶的人你没有办法改变

[00:23:15,193 --> 00:23:15,927]
段永平：不是每个人都

[00:23:16,094 --> 00:23:17,496]
段永平：改变人是非常难的一件事情

[00:23:18,396 --> 00:23:19,698]
段永平：按你这个说法

[00:23:19,698 --> 00:23:20,999]
段永平：也是跟刚才说的

[00:23:22,134 --> 00:23:22,934]
段永平：做对的事情

[00:23:23,034 --> 00:23:24,202]
段永平：也是找对的人

[00:23:24,436 --> 00:23:26,571]
段永平：选择还是比那个重要

[00:23:26,605 --> 00:23:27,539]
段永平：但是找对的人

[00:23:27,539 --> 00:23:29,641]
段永平：其实也是通过时间来的

[00:23:29,641 --> 00:23:30,509]
段永平：比如说

[00:23:30,776 --> 00:23:32,277]
段永平：找对的人你分两种

[00:23:32,277 --> 00:23:32,844]
段永平：一种是

[00:23:33,345 --> 00:23:33,879]
段永平：不对的人

[00:23:33,879 --> 00:23:35,113]
段永平：你慢慢把他淘汰掉

[00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:36,381]
段永平：还有一种

[00:23:36,648 --> 00:23:38,383]
方三文：他善恶都有

[00:23:39,184 --> 00:23:40,852]
段永平：可能他说的那个也有道理

[00:23:41,620 --> 00:23:43,188]
段永平：他认同了你的文化之后

[00:23:43,688 --> 00:23:44,556]
段永平：他觉得待下来

[00:23:44,556 --> 00:23:45,123]
段永平：他舒服

[00:23:45,123 --> 00:23:47,025]
段永平：他慢慢的他就跟着你就走了

[00:23:47,859 --> 00:23:48,860]
段永平：所以我们一直都说

[00:23:48,860 --> 00:23:51,329]
段永平：我们有两种人一个叫同道中人

[00:23:51,863 --> 00:23:52,898]
段永平：一个叫同行中人

[00:23:54,332 --> 00:23:55,333]
段永平：他认同你了

[00:23:55,333 --> 00:23:56,601]
段永平：他虽然他搞不清楚

[00:23:57,169 --> 00:23:58,837]
段永平：但是反正你让我这样做

[00:23:58,837 --> 00:23:59,371]
段永平：我就这样做

[00:23:59,371 --> 00:24:00,705]
段永平：反正别的方案我就不做了

[00:24:01,039 --> 00:24:02,874]
段永平：但是这些人他有时候不小心

[00:24:02,874 --> 00:24:04,576]
段永平：还会出点娄子

[00:24:05,177 --> 00:24:06,578]
段永平：但是你一说他想

[00:24:06,678 --> 00:24:07,679]
段永平：哦 OK 是哦

[00:24:07,679 --> 00:24:08,513]
段永平：以前我们讲过

[00:24:08,713 --> 00:24:10,415]
段永平：他也能够回来

[00:24:10,749 --> 00:24:12,117]
段永平：待得时间很长的人

[00:24:12,284 --> 00:24:15,020]
段永平：就是有这样的机会的

[00:24:15,053 --> 00:24:15,821]
段永平：尤其是像

[00:24:16,021 --> 00:24:16,788]
段永平：你像代理商

[00:24:17,522 --> 00:24:18,623]
段永平：客户这些东西

[00:24:18,857 --> 00:24:19,958]
段永平：跟我们其实没有

[00:24:20,625 --> 00:24:22,394]
段永平：像我们公司内部的人

[00:24:22,394 --> 00:24:24,529]
段永平：对文化的熏陶那么多

[00:24:24,663 --> 00:24:26,698]
段永平：但是其实我们这些

[00:24:26,998 --> 00:24:28,333]
段永平：代理商这么多年下来

[00:24:28,333 --> 00:24:30,502]
段永平：其实也都很好

[00:24:31,136 --> 00:24:34,606]
段永平：大家对文化的认同还是很强的

[00:24:39,644 --> 00:24:40,579]
方三文：那我再问一个

[00:24:40,679 --> 00:24:42,380]
段永平：除了人之后的

[00:24:42,380 --> 00:24:44,049]
段永平：企业具体经营的问题

[00:24:44,583 --> 00:24:48,653]
段永平：我觉得可能对这个步步高系来说

[00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,222]
段永平：它有个非常大的变化是

[00:24:50,222 --> 00:24:51,456]
段永平：后来做了智能手机

[00:24:52,123 --> 00:24:53,992]
段永平：原来是做过别的电子产品

[00:24:53,992 --> 00:24:55,160]
段永平：后来做过功能机

[00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,028]
段永平：后来做了智能手机

[00:24:57,028 --> 00:24:58,864]
段永平：这是一个很大的变化

[00:24:59,764 --> 00:25:01,333]
段永平：这个决策过程

[00:25:01,566 --> 00:25:02,901]
段永平：我听你以前说过

[00:25:02,901 --> 00:25:04,603]
段永平：好像最开始你是不赞成的

[00:25:05,270 --> 00:25:05,670]
段永平：对

[00:25:06,137 --> 00:25:08,707]
段永平：那这个后来是怎么变成又做的

[00:25:09,074 --> 00:25:10,375]
段永平：没有 我们的CEO

[00:25:10,375 --> 00:25:11,910]
段永平：因为他们是CEO

[00:25:12,711 --> 00:25:14,045]
段永平：我赞不赞成不影响

[00:25:14,045 --> 00:25:15,080]
段永平：他们做不做决定

[00:25:15,847 --> 00:25:16,147]
段永平：所以

[00:25:18,016 --> 00:25:19,317]
段永平：当初其实就是沈炜

[00:25:19,751 --> 00:25:22,754]
段永平：因为OPPO是后做的

[00:25:22,754 --> 00:25:24,389]
段永平：步步高手机是先做的

[00:25:24,623 --> 00:25:25,824]
段永平：后来改名叫VIVO

[00:25:26,725 --> 00:25:28,627]
段永平：那大家也是走投无路了

[00:25:28,827 --> 00:25:31,196]
段永平：就是现在自己做的产品

[00:25:31,196 --> 00:25:31,663]
段永平：看起来

[00:25:31,663 --> 00:25:32,497]
段永平：像我们做电话机

[00:25:32,497 --> 00:25:33,965]
段永平：一年就做到全国第一了

[00:25:34,466 --> 00:25:35,500]
段永平：两年吧 最多

[00:25:35,667 --> 00:25:37,502]
段永平：后来觉得这个市场再做下去

[00:25:37,502 --> 00:25:39,938]
段永平：我们好像也没有太大的前景

[00:25:40,238 --> 00:25:41,039]
段永平：然后手机来了

[00:25:41,306 --> 00:25:44,009]
段永平：沈炜就觉得我们应该做手机

[00:25:44,009 --> 00:25:45,176]
段永平：我那时候觉得我们手机

[00:25:45,176 --> 00:25:46,244]
段永平：可能做不过那些

[00:25:46,845 --> 00:25:48,647]
段永平：什么松下 索尼

[00:25:48,647 --> 00:25:50,448]
段永平：后来又出来摩托罗拉

[00:25:50,649 --> 00:25:51,783]
段永平：那这个是功能机时代的事情

[00:25:51,983 --> 00:25:52,717]
段永平：功能机时代

[00:25:52,951 --> 00:25:53,652]
段永平：然后他说

[00:25:54,085 --> 00:25:54,819]
段永平：阿段不是的

[00:25:54,819 --> 00:25:55,687]
段永平：他说这个手机

[00:25:55,687 --> 00:25:56,721]
段永平：他最后说服我的

[00:25:56,988 --> 00:25:58,323]
方三文：他说这个手机其实是一个

[00:25:58,490 --> 00:26:00,292]
方三文：个性化非常强的东西

[00:26:00,292 --> 00:26:01,960]
方三文：我原来是想它跟家电一样

[00:26:02,360 --> 00:26:03,862]
段永平：人家规模比我们大

[00:26:03,862 --> 00:26:05,463]
段永平：我们很难打得过别人

[00:26:05,463 --> 00:26:06,565]
段永平：我说如果你认为

[00:26:06,565 --> 00:26:07,999]
段永平：它是很个性化的东西

[00:26:07,999 --> 00:26:09,301]
段永平：那我们就有机会

[00:26:09,301 --> 00:26:10,802]
段永平：我们能够做出差异化的

[00:26:10,802 --> 00:26:12,304]
段永平：我们能够做的跟别人不一样

[00:26:12,304 --> 00:26:12,938]
段永平：我们在有的地方

[00:26:12,938 --> 00:26:13,939]
段永平：可以做的比别人好

[00:26:14,472 --> 00:26:15,340]
段永平：加上我们做企业

[00:26:15,407 --> 00:26:16,675]
段永平：已经有很多年的经验了

[00:26:17,142 --> 00:26:18,410]
方三文：我说但是不管怎么样

[00:26:18,910 --> 00:26:20,378]
段永平：我们公司的规矩就是这样

[00:26:20,912 --> 00:26:22,480]
方三文：不管我反不反对

[00:26:22,714 --> 00:26:23,815]
方三文：CEO做的决定

[00:26:24,649 --> 00:26:25,784]
方三文：就是他们做的决定

[00:26:27,218 --> 00:26:28,186]
段永平：结果也是他们来

[00:26:28,186 --> 00:26:29,020]
段永平：自己承受的

[00:26:29,020 --> 00:26:30,422]
段永平：他不能说阿段反对

[00:26:30,422 --> 00:26:31,122]
段永平：所以我没做

[00:26:31,289 --> 00:26:32,190]
段永平：我没有责任

[00:26:32,390 --> 00:26:34,292]
段永平：我只是作为一个顾问的角色

[00:26:34,526 --> 00:26:35,894]
段永平：所以其实这个可能

[00:26:35,894 --> 00:26:36,895]
段永平：很多人不太理解

[00:26:36,895 --> 00:26:37,696]
段永平：以为我是个老板

[00:26:37,696 --> 00:26:39,097]
段永平：我其实我在公司早就不是

[00:26:39,631 --> 00:26:40,565]
段永平：我甚至当CEO的时候

[00:26:40,565 --> 00:26:41,199]
段永平：我就不太管

[00:26:41,900 --> 00:26:42,901]
方三文：都是让他们做决定

[00:26:43,668 --> 00:26:45,236]
段永平：所以他们接过来也是很顺

[00:26:45,637 --> 00:26:47,505]
段永平：放权是要很长时间的

[00:26:47,505 --> 00:26:48,873]
段永平：但可能是不是从

[00:26:49,541 --> 00:26:51,142]
段永平：做功能机到智能机

[00:26:51,142 --> 00:26:53,445]
段永平：是一个更大的决定

[00:26:53,845 --> 00:26:55,246]
段永平：那个不是什么决定

[00:26:55,380 --> 00:26:57,015]
段永平：那个是被逼的

[00:26:57,148 --> 00:26:58,550]
方三文：你功能机卖不动了

[00:26:58,783 --> 00:27:00,251]
段永平：我们差点都死在上面了

[00:27:00,685 --> 00:27:01,453]
段永平：虽然我们前面

[00:27:01,553 --> 00:27:03,088]
段永平：功能机已经做得非常好了

[00:27:04,022 --> 00:27:06,491]
段永平：但是智能机来得非常的凶猛

[00:27:06,491 --> 00:27:08,159]
段永平：就那么一瞬间

[00:27:08,626 --> 00:27:10,161]
段永平：就把市场基本上占了

[00:27:10,729 --> 00:27:11,529]
段永平：那我们那时候手里

[00:27:11,529 --> 00:27:12,664]
方三文：还有好多功能机

[00:27:13,164 --> 00:27:15,567]
方三文：所以三十年（庆）的时候

[00:27:15,667 --> 00:27:16,801]
方三文：大家也是很感慨

[00:27:17,202 --> 00:27:18,870]
方三文：就是我们渡过去了

[00:27:19,170 --> 00:27:21,506]
方三文：因为我那时候还专门回去过

[00:27:21,506 --> 00:27:24,142]
方三文：因为我们存了很多物料的

[00:27:25,210 --> 00:27:27,145]
段永平：当时的现金消耗得非常的快

[00:27:28,313 --> 00:27:29,047]
方三文：我们账面有

[00:27:29,180 --> 00:27:31,416]
段永平：我记得有七八十个亿的现金

[00:27:31,549 --> 00:27:32,384]
段永平：看着往下掉

[00:27:32,450 --> 00:27:36,388]
方三文：掉到最后就快到底了

[00:27:36,721 --> 00:27:37,789]
段永平：又开始回来了

[00:27:37,789 --> 00:27:39,224]
段永平：因为那时候智能机已经出来

[00:27:39,524 --> 00:27:42,627]
段永平：我们智能机一代两代差不多

[00:27:42,761 --> 00:27:44,262]
段永平：我们就缓过来了

[00:27:44,596 --> 00:27:46,164]
段永平：所以我们中间有一年的时间

[00:27:46,297 --> 00:27:49,267]
段永平：就是2012年到2013年中间

[00:27:49,300 --> 00:27:50,602]
段永平：那一年的时间

[00:27:50,669 --> 00:27:52,103]
段永平：我们亏了不少钱

[00:27:53,538 --> 00:27:54,572]
段永平：当时我回去就说

[00:27:54,706 --> 00:27:55,774]
段永平：如果我们要倒的话

[00:27:56,241 --> 00:27:57,142]
段永平：不要倒得太难看

[00:27:57,409 --> 00:27:58,410]
段永平：也看过别人倒

[00:27:58,443 --> 00:28:00,645]
段永平：倒完了以后就是一地鸡毛

[00:28:00,812 --> 00:28:01,680]
段永平：我说这不行

[00:28:02,013 --> 00:28:04,682]
方三文：不能让供应商吃亏

[00:28:04,682 --> 00:28:06,217]
方三文：也不要让员工吃亏

[00:28:06,217 --> 00:28:07,252]
方三文：当然我说那个东西

[00:28:07,252 --> 00:28:08,820]
方三文：其实我是有一点底气的

[00:28:08,820 --> 00:28:10,922]
方三文：因为我投资这一块一直都没有动

[00:28:11,423 --> 00:28:13,158]
方三文：就相当于我们的后备役部队一样

[00:28:13,324 --> 00:28:14,325]
方三文：一直都没有上

[00:28:15,060 --> 00:28:15,927]
段永平：最后也没有上

[00:28:16,861 --> 00:28:18,296]
段永平：所以还挺好

[00:28:19,564 --> 00:28:21,366]
方三文：反正弟兄们也真的是很争气

[00:28:21,366 --> 00:28:22,967]
段永平：那就是做回来

[00:28:24,469 --> 00:28:29,641]
方三文：从功能机往智能机转的过程中

[00:28:29,741 --> 00:28:32,010]
段永平：其实比从做电话到做手机

[00:28:32,243 --> 00:28:34,245]
段永平：要面临过更大的危机

[00:28:35,180 --> 00:28:35,980]
段永平：因为规模太大

[00:28:36,815 --> 00:28:37,549]
段永平：规模太大了

[00:28:37,549 --> 00:28:39,818]
段永平：我觉得我们也是有失误的

[00:28:39,818 --> 00:28:41,886]
段永平：就是不够敏感

[00:28:41,986 --> 00:28:44,222]
段永平：因为在功能机上做得很好了

[00:28:44,622 --> 00:28:46,624]
段永平：我们其实是有风险承受能力的

[00:28:47,258 --> 00:28:50,995]
段永平：但是那一次确实亏得也挺多

[00:28:51,196 --> 00:28:52,764]
段永平：以前也犯过类似的错误

[00:28:52,897 --> 00:28:55,467]
段永平：但是规模没有那么大

[00:28:55,934 --> 00:28:57,435]
方三文：所以缓过来也挺快

[00:28:57,669 --> 00:29:03,975]
方三文：那么最大的风险其实是功能机滞销

[00:29:03,975 --> 00:29:04,342]
方三文：是的

[00:29:04,576 --> 00:29:05,777]
方三文：我们有太多的物料

[00:29:05,877 --> 00:29:07,045]
段永平：就备货备太多了

[00:29:07,045 --> 00:29:07,278]
方三文：是的

[00:29:07,545 --> 00:29:10,148]
方三文：没想到它的销量会下滑得这么厉害

[00:29:10,148 --> 00:29:10,482]
方三文：是的

[00:29:10,749 --> 00:29:12,984]
方三文：它那个降的速度太快了

[00:29:12,984 --> 00:29:15,019]
段永平：因为我们过去的经验曲线是

[00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:16,521]
段永平：认为它慢慢降的

[00:29:16,521 --> 00:29:18,690]
段永平：因为其实我们早就在开发智能机

[00:29:19,357 --> 00:29:20,558]
段永平：也知道这个趋势

[00:29:21,025 --> 00:29:22,927]
段永平：但是功能机还是下了很多单

[00:29:22,961 --> 00:29:24,696]
段永平：总觉得这是有一个过程的

[00:29:24,863 --> 00:29:25,630]
段永平：没想到它就

[00:29:26,598 --> 00:29:27,766]
段永平：一瞬间就过去了

[00:29:27,899 --> 00:29:29,367]
段永平：像现在AI上来的

[00:29:29,367 --> 00:29:31,569]
段永平：你看这两年的时间AI上了多少

[00:29:31,803 --> 00:29:33,104]
段永平：这个道理有点像

[00:29:33,304 --> 00:29:35,073]
段永平：新技术推动的新的产品

[00:29:35,073 --> 00:29:37,609]
段永平：它的这种普及程度比想象中快

[00:29:38,209 --> 00:29:39,410]
段永平：你也可以这么说吧

[00:29:39,410 --> 00:29:40,445]
段永平：也可以这么说

[00:29:40,612 --> 00:29:42,981]
段永平：主要是新的产品确实很好

[00:29:43,581 --> 00:29:46,584]
段永平：它一下就把老的产品完全替代了

[00:29:46,584 --> 00:29:47,752]
段永平：而且智能机出来以后

[00:29:47,786 --> 00:29:49,254]
段永平：它不光是替代了这些东西

[00:29:49,754 --> 00:29:51,322]
段永平：你看多少东西被替代

[00:29:51,623 --> 00:29:52,223]
段永平：相机

[00:29:52,223 --> 00:29:53,258]
段永平：相机没了

[00:29:53,658 --> 00:29:54,025]
段永平：我们

[00:29:54,392 --> 00:29:57,128]
段永平：像我们做学习机这个部门

[00:29:57,228 --> 00:29:59,664]
段永平：基本上我们做的什么电子词典

[00:30:00,098 --> 00:30:02,400]
段永平：什么复读机什么学习机

[00:30:03,001 --> 00:30:04,602]
段永平：基本上都被手机替代

[00:30:07,639 --> 00:30:08,473]
段永平：因为智能机

[00:30:08,473 --> 00:30:09,574]
段永平：它已经现在是一个

[00:30:09,607 --> 00:30:11,209]
段永平：非常大的一个产业了

[00:30:12,243 --> 00:30:14,212]
段永平：我回想起我的一些经历

[00:30:14,579 --> 00:30:17,182]
段永平：我觉得我大概可能在

[00:30:17,182 --> 00:30:19,217]
段永平：2004 2005年

[00:30:19,284 --> 00:30:20,718]
段永平：2003 2004年的时候

[00:30:21,085 --> 00:30:23,254]
段永平：我看过摩托罗拉那一款手机叫308（注：应为6188）

[00:30:24,355 --> 00:30:26,791]
段永平：其实已经有智能机的雏形

[00:30:27,258 --> 00:30:28,259]
段永平：最愚蠢的智能机

[00:30:28,993 --> 00:30:31,663]
段永平：后来有一个诺基亚的E71

[00:30:31,663 --> 00:30:32,130]
段永平：更愚蠢

[00:30:32,764 --> 00:30:34,799]
段永平：但是它也是智能机的一个雏形

[00:30:34,799 --> 00:30:35,633]
段永平：但是它是

[00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,602]
段永平：你应该叫它是弱智机

[00:30:38,236 --> 00:30:39,337]
段永平：诺基亚做那一款

[00:30:39,337 --> 00:30:40,338]
段永平：我印象非常深

[00:30:40,338 --> 00:30:41,472]
段永平：我拿到了很兴奋

[00:30:42,540 --> 00:30:44,242]
段永平：但是发现他们好弱智

[00:30:44,442 --> 00:30:46,077]
段永平：它以前我们用诺基亚手机

[00:30:46,077 --> 00:30:47,345]
段永平：用的很习惯的

[00:30:47,645 --> 00:30:49,047]
段永平：它把界面全改了

[00:30:49,047 --> 00:30:50,081]
段永平：我拿上来不会用

[00:30:50,882 --> 00:30:52,483]
段永平：那你想我一学工的人

[00:30:52,483 --> 00:30:54,419]
段永平：在那折腾半天都不知道怎么用

[00:30:54,419 --> 00:30:55,486]
段永平：我说这帮设计的人

[00:30:55,486 --> 00:30:56,554]
段永平：脑子真是有病

[00:30:57,021 --> 00:30:59,224]
段永平：所以诺基亚最后倒了一点都不意外

[00:30:59,857 --> 00:31:01,693]
段永平：我觉得这公司的文化肯定是烂掉了

[00:31:02,427 --> 00:31:06,497]
段永平：但是我觉得它毕竟在那个地方走出了一步

[00:31:07,198 --> 00:31:08,800]
段永平：虽然最后没成功

[00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,368]
段永平：是不是我们可以这样理解

[00:31:10,602 --> 00:31:12,170]
段永平：也许它那个企业里面

[00:31:12,570 --> 00:31:15,707]
段永平：也有人对这个产品的趋势

[00:31:15,740 --> 00:31:17,208]
段永平：是有一些相对正确的判断的

[00:31:17,208 --> 00:31:18,543]
段永平：产品趋势都没有问题

[00:31:18,543 --> 00:31:19,244]
段永平：谁都看得见

[00:31:19,744 --> 00:31:22,180]
段永平：但是它的文化很重要

[00:31:22,447 --> 00:31:24,082]
段永平：就是它企业没这个能力

[00:31:24,082 --> 00:31:27,118]
段永平：它们这个企业太注重市场占有率了

[00:31:27,118 --> 00:31:28,086]
方三文：太注重生意

[00:31:28,086 --> 00:31:29,787]
方三文：它不太注重用户

[00:31:30,121 --> 00:31:32,257]
方三文：所以它才会有那么大的miss

[00:31:32,323 --> 00:31:33,324]
段永平：我就觉得

[00:31:33,725 --> 00:31:35,393]
段永平：而且它后来又miss了一次

[00:31:35,593 --> 00:31:37,729]
段永平：其实安卓出来的时候

[00:31:38,463 --> 00:31:40,031]
段永平：谷歌是去找过他们的

[00:31:40,031 --> 00:31:42,100]
段永平：是希望诺基亚转安卓

[00:31:42,233 --> 00:31:42,734]
段永平：他们不干

[00:31:42,967 --> 00:31:44,736]
段永平：他们要守住他们自己那个东西

[00:31:44,836 --> 00:31:46,404]
段永平：终于把自己给守死了

[00:31:46,404 --> 00:31:47,305]
段永平：所以这个没办法

[00:31:47,305 --> 00:31:49,540]
段永平：那现在我们反正

[00:31:49,707 --> 00:31:52,143]
段永平：至少像摩托罗拉 诺基亚

[00:31:52,944 --> 00:31:55,580]
段永平：曾经是知名度非常高的企业

[00:31:56,514 --> 00:31:57,582]
方三文：也曾经认为

[00:31:57,915 --> 00:32:01,219]
方三文：他们在管理方面很有经验

[00:32:01,419 --> 00:32:03,121]
方三文：那我就想看你

[00:32:03,121 --> 00:32:04,422]
方三文：管理救不了一家公司

[00:32:04,856 --> 00:32:06,758]
方三文：它在战略上在文化上出问题了

[00:32:06,991 --> 00:32:09,894]
方三文：我就回头从管理方面

[00:32:09,894 --> 00:32:11,329]
段永平：我记得你曾经是

[00:32:11,729 --> 00:32:13,932]
段永平：比较推崇松下的管理的

[00:32:14,832 --> 00:32:17,402]
段永平：后来是不是你对这个看法也有些变化

[00:32:18,102 --> 00:32:22,840]
段永平：松下还是蛮厉害的一家公司

[00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:23,574]
段永平：但是我觉得

[00:32:24,275 --> 00:32:25,476]
段永平：它这个大文化

[00:32:25,710 --> 00:32:28,112]
段永平：日本这种大文化

[00:32:28,446 --> 00:32:30,882]
段永平：可能我不知道

[00:32:31,149 --> 00:32:33,418]
段永平：我觉得不是特别容易理解

[00:32:33,418 --> 00:32:33,985]
段永平：有些东西

[00:32:34,052 --> 00:32:35,219]
段永平：我们其实最早

[00:32:35,219 --> 00:32:36,421]
段永平：我是去找过松下

[00:32:36,421 --> 00:32:37,956]
段永平：想跟他们合作做手机的

[00:32:38,156 --> 00:32:41,059]
段永平：我跟陈明永跟沈炜两个人去松下

[00:32:41,392 --> 00:32:44,062]
段永平：一直从科长 部长

[00:32:44,462 --> 00:32:46,197]
段永平：一直见到了中村社长

[00:32:46,464 --> 00:32:47,598]
段永平：然后我跟他们

[00:32:47,598 --> 00:32:48,666]
段永平：因为我们是他们的客户

[00:32:48,666 --> 00:32:49,600]
段永平：他们知道我们是谁

[00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:50,168]
段永平：他不是说

[00:32:50,835 --> 00:32:52,837]
段永平：不然也不会见到社长

[00:32:53,705 --> 00:32:55,406]
方三文：然后我就跟他们讲

[00:32:55,473 --> 00:32:56,774]
段永平：他们就问我们的来意

[00:32:56,808 --> 00:32:58,443]
段永平：我说我们其实是觉得

[00:32:59,477 --> 00:33:01,045]
段永平：首先当时我们对自己

[00:33:01,079 --> 00:33:02,447]
方三文：不是说太有信心

[00:33:03,881 --> 00:33:06,317]
方三文：对技术 对资金的来源

[00:33:06,384 --> 00:33:09,387]
方三文：对后面的会发生什么事

[00:33:09,387 --> 00:33:11,289]
方三文：还是有点不太有底的

[00:33:11,289 --> 00:33:12,423]
方三文：就觉得找一个

[00:33:12,423 --> 00:33:14,926]
方三文：比较大一点的公司合作

[00:33:14,926 --> 00:33:17,628]
段永平：可能说不定会更有机会

[00:33:17,628 --> 00:33:18,229]
段永平：所以我那时候

[00:33:18,229 --> 00:33:19,931]
段永平：我去松下 我跟他们讲过

[00:33:19,964 --> 00:33:21,399]
段永平：我说那以我们的实力

[00:33:21,866 --> 00:33:24,936]
段永平：我认为我们合作的话

[00:33:24,936 --> 00:33:26,137]
方三文：我们三年做到

[00:33:26,537 --> 00:33:28,106]
方三文：我说我们两年做到前三名

[00:33:28,106 --> 00:33:29,340]
段永平：三年做到前两名

[00:33:29,340 --> 00:33:31,409]
段永平：都是很有可能的 在中国市场

[00:33:31,709 --> 00:33:33,845]
段永平：从头到尾没有任何一个人问过我

[00:33:34,278 --> 00:33:35,279]
段永平：你为什么这么认为

[00:33:35,847 --> 00:33:36,848]
段永平：没有人在乎

[00:33:37,382 --> 00:33:38,883]
段永平：所以我离开松下我就知道

[00:33:38,883 --> 00:33:41,386]
段永平：我觉得松下他们其实是很麻烦的

[00:33:41,386 --> 00:33:43,020]
段永平：他们根本就不信任你

[00:33:43,421 --> 00:33:46,724]
段永平：完全没有想

[00:33:47,058 --> 00:33:49,527]
段永平：有人说这个话

[00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:50,928]
段永平：你总得有个人问我

[00:33:51,028 --> 00:33:52,764]
段永平：你凭什么 对不对

[00:33:52,764 --> 00:33:53,464]
段永平：那我才可以说

[00:33:53,464 --> 00:33:54,665]
段永平：你不问 我不会说的

[00:33:55,299 --> 00:33:57,969]
段永平：我觉得松下那公司这方面的

[00:33:58,136 --> 00:34:00,171]
段永平：这个我不知道叫什么

[00:34:00,338 --> 00:34:01,973]
段永平：就是很官僚的东西

[00:34:01,973 --> 00:34:03,007]
方三文：包括我见到社长

[00:34:03,708 --> 00:34:04,909]
方三文：社长跟我讲的时候

[00:34:04,909 --> 00:34:06,711]
方三文：当我在做一个决策的时候

[00:34:07,245 --> 00:34:10,381]
方三文：我就想着松下老人站在我背后会怎么想

[00:34:10,381 --> 00:34:12,717]
方三文：我心想那你就完蛋了 对不对

[00:34:12,717 --> 00:34:14,652]
方三文：因为松下老人早就不在了

[00:34:15,887 --> 00:34:17,522]
方三文：你看乔布斯跟蒂姆·库克讲

[00:34:18,022 --> 00:34:21,092]
方三文：说 你当CEO就是你做决策

[00:34:21,092 --> 00:34:22,860]
方三文：你不要想我乔布斯会做什么

[00:34:23,428 --> 00:34:24,195]
方三文：这就对了

[00:34:24,529 --> 00:34:26,397]
方三文：就像我也是这样跟大家讲

[00:34:26,964 --> 00:34:28,800]
方三文：就是他们是CEO 他们做决策

[00:34:28,833 --> 00:34:30,568]
方三文：一定不要想阿段会怎么做

[00:34:30,968 --> 00:34:32,170]
方三文：你要那么想 我们就完了

[00:34:32,970 --> 00:34:34,639]
方三文：我们早就完了 不会等到今天

[00:34:35,706 --> 00:34:36,307]
段永平：所以我觉得

[00:34:37,241 --> 00:34:41,145]
段永平：松下的文化我觉得确实是出了问题

[00:34:41,245 --> 00:34:42,847]
段永平：但是按你这么描述的话

[00:34:42,847 --> 00:34:46,717]
段永平：它可能把自己过往的体制 成就

[00:34:46,717 --> 00:34:47,819]
段永平：可能看得太重了

[00:34:47,852 --> 00:34:48,553]
段永平：这个我不知道

[00:34:49,287 --> 00:34:51,122]
段永平：我没有关心过发生什么事

[00:34:51,122 --> 00:34:52,490]
段永平：我就觉得它那样不对

[00:34:54,292 --> 00:34:55,793]
段永平：尤其是一个社长跟我讲

[00:34:56,060 --> 00:34:57,662]
段永平：他在做决策的时候想着

[00:34:58,062 --> 00:34:59,864]
段永平：老社长站在背后怎么想

[00:34:59,864 --> 00:35:01,532]
段永平：我觉得他们背了很重的负担

[00:35:01,999 --> 00:35:03,634]
段永平：因为你的眼睛是要看到用户的

[00:35:04,001 --> 00:35:06,237]
段永平：他的眼睛是看倒后镜的

[00:35:06,237 --> 00:35:08,139]
段永平：那你时间足够长

[00:35:08,139 --> 00:35:09,440]
段永平：它一定是会出毛病的

[00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,742]
段永平：那么按你刚才的描述

[00:35:11,843 --> 00:35:13,010]
段永平：你是很早

[00:35:13,778 --> 00:35:17,348]
段永平：首先你建立了很好的授权机制

[00:35:18,082 --> 00:35:21,953]
段永平：很早的时候就让合作伙伴自己去决策

[00:35:22,220 --> 00:35:25,323]
段永平：然后你自己也很早的退出了

[00:35:26,124 --> 00:35:29,193]
段永平：具体的经营管理的决策

[00:35:32,296 --> 00:35:35,900]
段永平：好像在企业家里面并不常见这么安排的

[00:35:36,134 --> 00:35:37,201]
段永平：这跟我有什么关系

[00:35:37,935 --> 00:35:39,837]
段永平：我又不是常见的企业家

[00:35:42,340 --> 00:35:44,175]
段永平：我并不关心别人想干什么

[00:35:44,442 --> 00:35:45,276]
段永平：我想打球

[00:35:45,543 --> 00:35:47,111]
段永平：别人想打球他们也可以到处打

[00:35:47,712 --> 00:35:50,681]
段永平：那最主要的是他们干得比我好

[00:35:50,882 --> 00:35:54,352]
段永平：我觉得他们比我的动力要强

[00:35:54,585 --> 00:35:56,521]
段永平：我觉得我该干的事我都干过

[00:35:56,587 --> 00:35:58,422]
段永平：然后我还有其他享受的事情

[00:35:58,556 --> 00:35:59,857]
段永平：然后他们干的又比我好

[00:35:59,857 --> 00:36:01,459]
段永平：我为什么要待在那个地方

[00:36:02,293 --> 00:36:03,294]
段永平：而且我很信任他们

[00:36:03,294 --> 00:36:04,295]
段永平：我觉得这点很重要

[00:36:05,563 --> 00:36:07,198]
段永平：我也不怕他们犯错误

[00:36:07,732 --> 00:36:10,601]
段永平：但是我看到的很多的企业家

[00:36:10,601 --> 00:36:12,870]
段永平：他希望自己一直在一线

[00:36:12,870 --> 00:36:13,738]
段永平：这跟我没有关系

[00:36:13,938 --> 00:36:14,939]
段永平：不在乎他们想什么

[00:36:15,339 --> 00:36:17,175]
段永平：那么你觉得

[00:36:17,308 --> 00:36:19,043]
段永平：这也是一个用户的问题

[00:36:19,610 --> 00:36:21,779]
段永平：他说创始人

[00:36:22,213 --> 00:36:24,248]
段永平：这个叫“路边边走”的用户问的

[00:36:24,248 --> 00:36:26,083]
段永平：他说创始人老板离开公司

[00:36:26,517 --> 00:36:28,386]
段永平：他有什么办法怎么判断

[00:36:28,619 --> 00:36:30,788]
段永平：可以离开了或者条件成熟了

[00:36:31,355 --> 00:36:33,591]
段永平：他觉得可以离开的时候就是可以离开

[00:36:34,091 --> 00:36:35,459]
段永平：但是很难

[00:36:36,460 --> 00:36:38,963]
段永平：不是很多人可以做到这一点

[00:36:39,397 --> 00:36:40,431]
段永平：难在哪里呢

[00:36:40,831 --> 00:36:41,499]
段永平：难在他不想

[00:36:43,434 --> 00:36:45,336]
段永平：他要想的话他总是能找到办法

[00:36:45,469 --> 00:36:47,905]
段永平：那这样他也不会对公司有太大的好处

[00:36:48,172 --> 00:36:50,608]
方三文：那是因为他自己享受这个事情

[00:36:50,942 --> 00:36:52,009]
方三文：这个其实无可非议

[00:36:52,143 --> 00:36:54,779]
方三文：我不觉得这个东西有什么好讨论的

[00:36:54,779 --> 00:36:56,447]
方三文：有些人他喜欢做这件事情

[00:36:56,681 --> 00:36:58,516]
段永平：我喜欢让弟兄们做

[00:36:58,849 --> 00:37:00,384]
段永平：我觉得其实就是一个选择

[00:37:00,551 --> 00:37:03,187]
段永平：你说不选又想羡慕我的生活

[00:37:03,854 --> 00:37:06,357]
段永平：你又想享受你的生活

[00:37:06,557 --> 00:37:07,925]
段永平：那做不到啊

[00:37:08,459 --> 00:37:10,294]
段永平：有些人是喜欢工作的

[00:37:11,562 --> 00:37:13,197]
段永平：我是真不喜欢

[00:37:14,298 --> 00:37:16,133]
段永平：但是从结果上来看

[00:37:16,867 --> 00:37:18,336]
段永平：这个是个客观结果

[00:37:18,336 --> 00:37:19,604]
段永平：是可以评判的嘛

[00:37:21,005 --> 00:37:22,707]
段永平：一方面我觉得

[00:37:24,342 --> 00:37:25,876]
段永平：人很敬业

[00:37:26,010 --> 00:37:28,246]
段永平：一直在工作好像是一种好的品质

[00:37:28,246 --> 00:37:29,814]
段永平：但同时我们又不能否认

[00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,249]
段永平：随着人的年龄的增长

[00:37:31,249 --> 00:37:33,718]
段永平：他的能力是会下降的

[00:37:34,318 --> 00:37:36,020]
段永平：是不是总的来说

[00:37:36,187 --> 00:37:38,723]
段永平：还是得承认人对企业

[00:37:38,756 --> 00:37:41,025]
段永平：即使是创始人对企业的贡献

[00:37:41,025 --> 00:37:42,326]
段永平：他也是阶段性的

[00:37:42,326 --> 00:37:43,728]
段永平：我不认为可以这么想

[00:37:43,728 --> 00:37:44,829]
段永平：我觉得这个没有道理

[00:37:46,097 --> 00:37:48,733]
段永平：这个是很没有逻辑的想法

[00:37:50,334 --> 00:37:51,936]
段永平：那巴菲特90多岁了

[00:37:51,936 --> 00:37:53,271]
段永平：人家做得也挺好啊

[00:37:53,938 --> 00:37:55,906]
段永平：我给一个反例嘛

[00:37:55,906 --> 00:37:56,540]
段永平：工科的人

[00:37:56,540 --> 00:37:57,975]
段永平：但你们文科可能不这么想

[00:37:58,209 --> 00:37:59,744]
段永平：1234 ABCD 甲乙丙丁

[00:37:59,744 --> 00:38:00,478]
段永平：你可以说很多

[00:38:00,478 --> 00:38:02,179]
段永平：我工科只要举一个反例

[00:38:02,546 --> 00:38:04,248]
段永平：你就否定

[00:38:04,548 --> 00:38:05,783]
段永平：那巴菲特90多岁了

[00:38:06,017 --> 00:38:07,018]
段永平：CEO还做着呀

[00:38:07,084 --> 00:38:08,019]
段永平：刚刚退休

[00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:09,820]
段永平：那我觉得

[00:38:10,221 --> 00:38:11,222]
段永平：他为什么退了我不知道

[00:38:11,422 --> 00:38:13,658]
段永平：我觉得他可能身体没有以前那么好

[00:38:13,958 --> 00:38:15,559]
方三文：我前两年去见他

[00:38:15,559 --> 00:38:17,094]
方三文：他带我们参观办公室

[00:38:17,094 --> 00:38:19,230]
方三文：是带着我们一堆人走的

[00:38:19,563 --> 00:38:20,631]
段永平：走了50多分钟

[00:38:20,798 --> 00:38:23,234]
段永平：所以那个时候他身体还不错

[00:38:23,367 --> 00:38:24,035]
方三文：最近我不知道

[00:38:24,268 --> 00:38:27,071]
方三文：但是我看他开股东大会其实还OK

[00:38:27,071 --> 00:38:29,674]
方三文：他是觉得也许确实该交班了

[00:38:29,874 --> 00:38:31,442]
段永平：所以这个逻辑是不存在的

[00:38:32,543 --> 00:38:33,944]
段永平：巴菲特是一个特别典型的例子

[00:38:33,944 --> 00:38:35,146]
段永平：他就是喜欢做这件事情

[00:38:35,613 --> 00:38:36,380]
段永平：他就一直在做

[00:38:36,380 --> 00:38:38,749]
段永平：你为什么非要因为年龄就退休呢

[00:38:39,150 --> 00:38:42,186]
段永平：我不觉得年龄就一定是一个障碍

[00:38:42,787 --> 00:38:45,156]
段永平：但他自己要对自己有个评价

[00:38:45,156 --> 00:38:47,458]
段永平：你要自己都啥也记不住了

[00:38:47,525 --> 00:38:49,627]
段永平：做个决策也是晕晕乎乎的

[00:38:50,161 --> 00:38:50,928]
段永平：那我就不知道

[00:38:51,696 --> 00:38:53,464]
方三文：但是如果是你自己的公司

[00:38:53,464 --> 00:38:53,998]
方三文：你愿意

[00:38:53,998 --> 00:38:57,668]
方三文：其实别人也没有可说的东西

[00:38:57,668 --> 00:38:58,969]
方三文：我就是觉得我们

[00:38:59,270 --> 00:38:59,737]
方三文：弟兄们

[00:38:59,870 --> 00:39:01,105]
段永平：因为我们那个

[00:39:01,105 --> 00:39:02,640]
段永平：其实不是一天两天的事情

[00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:03,674]
段永平：我之前就这样

[00:39:03,874 --> 00:39:05,476]
方三文：其实我在当CEO的时候

[00:39:05,776 --> 00:39:08,979]
段永平：他们就已经很多自主权了

[00:39:09,347 --> 00:39:12,717]
段永平：所以我交给他们可是自然而然的事情

[00:39:13,317 --> 00:39:14,418]
方三文：我很少在办公室

[00:39:14,785 --> 00:39:16,654]
方三文：我要么就去打球 要么就去打球

[00:39:18,923 --> 00:39:19,757]
方三文：好 OK

[00:39:24,929 --> 00:39:27,765]
方三文：这也是一个用户叫“一根白”

[00:39:27,865 --> 00:39:28,632]
方三文：这个用户问

[00:39:28,733 --> 00:39:30,868]
方三文：第一次接触股票投资

[00:39:30,868 --> 00:39:32,036]
方三文：是什么契机

[00:39:32,470 --> 00:39:33,537]
段永平：这还需要契机吗

[00:39:33,604 --> 00:39:35,206]
段永平：天天到处都知道有股票

[00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,109]
段永平：我只是说退休了以后

[00:39:38,242 --> 00:39:40,845]
段永平：后来就搬到这来生活了

[00:39:40,845 --> 00:39:44,482]
段永平：就觉得那我也不能天天24小时打球

[00:39:45,683 --> 00:39:47,251]
段永平：然后我也不会去找份工作

[00:39:47,651 --> 00:39:49,687]
段永平：那这个更没有道理

[00:39:50,154 --> 00:39:51,389]
段永平：后来就想着

[00:39:52,423 --> 00:39:53,324]
段永平：这投资好像

[00:39:54,391 --> 00:39:56,927]
段永平：好像跟生意有关跟企业有关系

[00:39:56,927 --> 00:39:57,862]
段永平：我就来研究研究

[00:39:59,029 --> 00:40:00,064]
段永平：也买了很多书

[00:40:00,631 --> 00:40:01,632]
段永平：包括看图看线

[00:40:02,333 --> 00:40:02,767]
段永平：看不懂

[00:40:02,867 --> 00:40:05,302]
段永平：觉得我这一工科出来的人

[00:40:05,302 --> 00:40:06,670]
段永平：怎么这图我就看不懂

[00:40:07,805 --> 00:40:09,173]
段永平：他们就能得出这样的结论

[00:40:09,173 --> 00:40:09,673]
方三文：那样的结论

[00:40:09,673 --> 00:40:11,876]
方三文：我说这些结论在逻辑上都是不成立

[00:40:11,876 --> 00:40:14,078]
段永平：后来直到我看了老巴的东西

[00:40:14,445 --> 00:40:15,279]
段永平：其实啥也没看

[00:40:15,279 --> 00:40:16,747]
段永平：就看你买股票就是买公司

[00:40:16,747 --> 00:40:17,815]
段永平：我就看到那一句话

[00:40:18,482 --> 00:40:19,450]
段永平：我就突然就明白了

[00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:20,584]
段永平：这句话就够了

[00:40:20,618 --> 00:40:21,385]
段永平：就够了

[00:40:21,619 --> 00:40:24,054]
段永平：因为剩下的就是你怎么看公司

[00:40:24,588 --> 00:40:26,056]
段永平：那不是老巴能够教的

[00:40:26,056 --> 00:40:27,091]
段永平：你不懂企业

[00:40:27,091 --> 00:40:28,859]
段永平：跟你讲多少理论也是白讲

[00:40:29,460 --> 00:40:31,495]
段永平：但是我毕竟我做企业出来的

[00:40:31,495 --> 00:40:32,997]
段永平：我懂别人的生意

[00:40:33,130 --> 00:40:34,632]
段永平：也是相对来讲容易的

[00:40:35,366 --> 00:40:37,067]
段永平：但是我也懂不了太多的生意

[00:40:37,067 --> 00:40:39,370]
段永平：这些年也没找到好多个

[00:40:39,370 --> 00:40:40,971]
段永平：就是那么几个呗

[00:40:40,971 --> 00:40:42,373]
段永平：但是我觉得懂生意很重要

[00:40:42,373 --> 00:40:44,341]
段永平：不懂生意投资是很难做的

[00:40:45,009 --> 00:40:48,279]
段永平：那如果用一句话来概括你的投资理念的话

[00:40:48,312 --> 00:40:50,181]
段永平：是不是买股票就是买公司

[00:40:50,347 --> 00:40:50,681]
段永平：是的

[00:40:51,882 --> 00:40:52,383]
方三文：没有了

[00:40:52,650 --> 00:40:53,050]
方三文：没有了

[00:40:54,051 --> 00:40:54,919]
段永平：就够了

[00:40:54,919 --> 00:40:55,152]
段永平：对

[00:40:56,253 --> 00:40:57,488]
段永平：但是后面那句话就是

[00:40:58,889 --> 00:41:00,124]
段永平：你要看懂公司

[00:41:00,357 --> 00:41:01,258]
方三文：这个很难

[00:41:01,659 --> 00:41:03,694]
段永平：为什么说投资很简单

[00:41:04,562 --> 00:41:05,596]
方三文：但是不容易

[00:41:06,597 --> 00:41:08,999]
段永平：简单就是你一定要看公司

[00:41:09,133 --> 00:41:10,434]
段永平：你一定要看懂生意

[00:41:10,434 --> 00:41:11,936]
段永平：你也要看懂未来的现金流

[00:41:12,570 --> 00:41:13,571]
段永平：难是难在

[00:41:13,971 --> 00:41:15,239]
段永平：你很难做到这一点

[00:41:15,606 --> 00:41:17,775]
段永平：大部分公司都不容易看懂

[00:41:18,409 --> 00:41:21,011]
段永平：那么我记得是巴菲特还是芒格说过

[00:41:21,212 --> 00:41:22,813]
段永平：他说一辈子投资的话

[00:41:22,813 --> 00:41:25,516]
段永平：如果是有个打孔机

[00:41:25,850 --> 00:41:27,117]
段永平：打20个孔

[00:41:27,117 --> 00:41:28,886]
段永平：这好像是巴菲特说的

[00:41:29,220 --> 00:41:30,554]
段永平：你的额度用完了吗

[00:41:30,788 --> 00:41:31,722]
段永平：我应该还没有

[00:41:32,189 --> 00:41:32,623]
段永平：还没有

[00:41:32,623 --> 00:41:32,923]
方三文：没有

[00:41:34,258 --> 00:41:35,759]
方三文：那我们说的更具体一点

[00:41:38,429 --> 00:41:40,231]
段永平：有时候小仓位的买一点股票

[00:41:41,398 --> 00:41:42,500]
段永平：那个不太算

[00:41:42,666 --> 00:41:45,169]
方三文：我就说有财务意义上的投资决策

[00:41:45,536 --> 00:41:46,403]
段永平：你这个20个孔

[00:41:46,403 --> 00:41:48,372]
段永平：你感觉现在自己打了多少个了

[00:41:48,372 --> 00:41:49,540]
段永平：我可以数得出来

[00:41:50,007 --> 00:41:52,576]
方三文：我自己真的投过

[00:41:54,411 --> 00:41:55,613]
方三文：比较大金额的

[00:41:56,180 --> 00:41:57,448]
方三文：就说大比重吧

[00:41:57,448 --> 00:41:57,948]
方三文：这么说

[00:41:58,249 --> 00:41:59,817]
段永平：最早是网易

[00:42:01,685 --> 00:42:02,286]
段永平：网易

[00:42:02,419 --> 00:42:02,853]
段永平：然后

[00:42:03,787 --> 00:42:04,822]
段永平：雅虎应该算

[00:42:05,422 --> 00:42:06,223]
段永平：但是我后来

[00:42:06,223 --> 00:42:08,092]
段永平：其实本质上是投的阿里巴巴

[00:42:08,525 --> 00:42:10,194]
段永平：我雅虎其实就是想买阿里

[00:42:10,861 --> 00:42:11,462]
段永平：这个算一个

[00:42:11,762 --> 00:42:13,764]
段永平：后来差不多就到苹果了吧

[00:42:14,765 --> 00:42:15,666]
段永平：伯克希尔哈撒韦

[00:42:15,866 --> 00:42:17,268]
段永平：伯克希尔哈撒韦我的比重也不大

[00:42:17,334 --> 00:42:18,202]
段永平：苹果比较大

[00:42:18,536 --> 00:42:20,671]
段永平：茅台其实也蛮大的

[00:42:21,272 --> 00:42:21,972]
段永平：腾讯

[00:42:22,473 --> 00:42:24,174]
段永平：我现在其实

[00:42:24,408 --> 00:42:25,776]
段永平：还可以吧

[00:42:26,610 --> 00:42:27,378]
段永平：通用电气算不算

[00:42:28,045 --> 00:42:30,080]
段永平：通用电气没有那么算

[00:42:30,247 --> 00:42:32,449]
段永平：通用电气就是在2008年

[00:42:32,449 --> 00:42:33,784]
段永平：危机的那一下

[00:42:35,286 --> 00:42:36,353]
段永平：确实投了一下

[00:42:36,554 --> 00:42:38,255]
段永平：我现在想不起比重来了

[00:42:39,189 --> 00:42:39,890]
段永平：但是

[00:42:40,557 --> 00:42:41,292]
段永平：过去以后

[00:42:41,559 --> 00:42:42,760]
段永平：他们换CEO以后

[00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,261]
段永平：我就很快就退出了

[00:42:44,328 --> 00:42:45,863]
段永平：我觉得按今天的想法

[00:42:45,863 --> 00:42:46,897]
段永平：我是不会投通用电气

[00:42:47,097 --> 00:42:48,732]
段永平：我觉得通用电气的商业模式并不好

[00:42:49,066 --> 00:42:50,367]
段永平：我那个时候还没有

[00:42:51,001 --> 00:42:51,969]
段永平：没有现在的水平

[00:42:51,969 --> 00:42:53,170]
段永平：我们还先数数孔

[00:42:53,270 --> 00:42:53,771]
段永平：看看

[00:42:54,638 --> 00:42:55,773]
段永平：谷歌算一个孔吗

[00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:57,274]
段永平：谷歌其实都不算

[00:42:57,441 --> 00:42:58,676]
段永平：我没有在谷歌上

[00:42:58,676 --> 00:42:59,810]
段永平：真的下过重注

[00:43:00,678 --> 00:43:01,612]
方三文：拼多多算吗

[00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:03,414]
方三文：拼多多可以算

[00:43:04,949 --> 00:43:06,550]
方三文：好像在这个之外再找孔

[00:43:06,817 --> 00:43:07,952]
段永平：就不怎么找得到了

[00:43:07,952 --> 00:43:08,652]
段永平：不多了

[00:43:09,653 --> 00:43:10,588]
段永平：我要想一下

[00:43:12,056 --> 00:43:14,124]
段永平：因为拼多多是很特殊了

[00:43:14,124 --> 00:43:14,725]
段永平：是因为我

[00:43:15,759 --> 00:43:16,760]
段永平：在早期的时候

[00:43:16,961 --> 00:43:18,128]
段永平：就是这叫什么

[00:43:18,162 --> 00:43:20,431]
方三文：初创阶段的时候就已经投了

[00:43:20,431 --> 00:43:20,864]
方三文：就天使

[00:43:20,864 --> 00:43:21,932]
段永平：所以我投的钱其实

[00:43:22,266 --> 00:43:23,100]
方三文：比重很少

[00:43:23,534 --> 00:43:26,103]
方三文：这赚的钱确实很多

[00:43:26,370 --> 00:43:28,172]
方三文：严格意义上其实都不算

[00:43:28,872 --> 00:43:30,941]
段永平：因为我不是说我看懂了往里投

[00:43:31,108 --> 00:43:32,109]
段永平：我是稀里糊涂投的

[00:43:32,276 --> 00:43:34,511]
段永平：那如果再想不出别的孔的话

[00:43:34,612 --> 00:43:36,180]
段永平：听起来就10个孔还没打完

[00:43:36,413 --> 00:43:37,214]
段永平：差不多吧

[00:43:38,048 --> 00:43:39,149]
段永平：小10个孔

[00:43:39,316 --> 00:43:41,585]
方三文：所以我还有很久可以做投资

[00:43:41,752 --> 00:43:43,087]
方三文：因为要做够20个

[00:43:43,787 --> 00:43:45,255]
段永平：可能全世界

[00:43:46,190 --> 00:43:46,991]
段永平：投资人里面

[00:43:46,991 --> 00:43:48,692]
段永平：二级市场的投资人里面

[00:43:48,692 --> 00:43:50,961]
段永平：敢说自己20个孔的额度

[00:43:50,961 --> 00:43:52,630]
段永平：没用完的人可能也很少

[00:43:52,763 --> 00:43:53,197]
段永平：这不知道

[00:43:53,397 --> 00:43:54,398]
段永平：这看你的定义

[00:43:54,398 --> 00:43:57,501]
段永平：那我就说真的

[00:43:57,868 --> 00:44:00,604]
段永平：你到20个孔

[00:44:00,738 --> 00:44:03,907]
段永平：你至少要占到你的这个决策里头

[00:44:04,775 --> 00:44:06,810]
段永平：有些人一辈子其实都到不了

[00:44:07,077 --> 00:44:07,978]
方三文：他就没有

[00:44:08,646 --> 00:44:09,947]
方三文：重仓过任何公司

[00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,783]
方三文：他最高的重仓就是5个点

[00:44:14,051 --> 00:44:14,918]
方三文：或者他手里拿

[00:44:15,519 --> 00:44:17,488]
方三文：甚至很有名的投资的人

[00:44:17,488 --> 00:44:18,389]
方三文：比方说彼得·林奇

[00:44:18,389 --> 00:44:20,791]
段永平：他一辈子做过2000多个股票

[00:44:20,791 --> 00:44:21,592]
段永平：他一定很忙

[00:44:21,659 --> 00:44:22,893]
段永平：所以头发白得也很早

[00:44:22,993 --> 00:44:24,728]
段永平：早早的就退休了

[00:44:24,728 --> 00:44:25,362]
段永平：比我还早

[00:44:26,096 --> 00:44:27,264]
方三文：我不知道他现在还做不做投资

[00:44:27,264 --> 00:44:28,232]
方三文：他估计现在还做

[00:44:28,232 --> 00:44:29,433]
段永平：就自己给自己做

[00:44:29,433 --> 00:44:30,434]
段永平：他不管别人

[00:44:30,434 --> 00:44:31,201]
段永平：他不工作

[00:44:31,702 --> 00:44:32,202]
段永平：我不知道

[00:44:32,202 --> 00:44:33,303]
段永平：其实取决于定义

[00:44:33,370 --> 00:44:35,372]
段永平：那我碰过的股票可能也很多

[00:44:35,639 --> 00:44:36,874]
段永平：像我还买过神华呢

[00:44:37,675 --> 00:44:38,409]
段永平：我不是买过神华

[00:44:38,409 --> 00:44:39,109]
段永平：我现在有神华

[00:44:39,877 --> 00:44:41,078]
段永平：只是它比重不大

[00:44:41,178 --> 00:44:42,713]
段永平：那茅台我是比重比较大

[00:44:47,284 --> 00:44:48,419]
段永平：我一般跟大家讲

[00:44:48,419 --> 00:44:49,386]
段永平：我就三只股票

[00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,288]
段永平：苹果 腾讯 茅台

[00:44:52,423 --> 00:44:53,323]
段永平：差不多真是这样

[00:44:53,323 --> 00:44:54,491]
段永平：大概反正就是说

[00:44:54,925 --> 00:44:56,193]
段永平：可以无争议的结论

[00:44:56,193 --> 00:44:57,895]
段永平：就是这20个孔没用完

[00:44:58,295 --> 00:44:59,963]
段永平：关键看你那个孔的定义是什么

[00:45:00,497 --> 00:45:01,932]
段永平：那老巴他碰过的股票

[00:45:01,999 --> 00:45:02,833]
段永平：也不止20个

[00:45:03,834 --> 00:45:04,768]
段永平：但他真正重仓

[00:45:04,768 --> 00:45:06,136]
段永平：他跟你说的这些股票

[00:45:06,136 --> 00:45:07,137]
段永平：其实是不多的

[00:45:07,371 --> 00:45:09,306]
段永平：甚至说他赚到特别大钱的

[00:45:10,274 --> 00:45:11,275]
段永平：苹果肯定也算嘛

[00:45:12,376 --> 00:45:13,343]
段永平：不知道现在卖得怎么样

[00:45:13,577 --> 00:45:15,312]
段永平：有哪个孔是你

[00:45:15,746 --> 00:45:16,580]
段永平：你觉得打了孔

[00:45:16,580 --> 00:45:18,615]
方三文：其实现在你总体上不是很满意

[00:45:19,450 --> 00:45:20,717]
方三文：不会有这样的现象

[00:45:21,285 --> 00:45:22,219]
方三文：因为你不满意

[00:45:22,286 --> 00:45:23,287]
段永平：你赶紧就跑了呀

[00:45:23,454 --> 00:45:25,389]
段永平：它就已经不在你孔那里了

[00:45:26,190 --> 00:45:27,324]
段永平：现在还是孔的

[00:45:27,324 --> 00:45:28,058]
段永平：都是满意的

[00:45:28,292 --> 00:45:29,093]
段永平：逻辑上是

[00:45:29,493 --> 00:45:29,960]
段永平：只是

[00:45:30,327 --> 00:45:32,196]
段永平：不然逻辑上不成立

[00:45:32,796 --> 00:45:33,464]
段永平：你不喜欢

[00:45:33,464 --> 00:45:34,331]
段永平：你还拿着

[00:45:34,698 --> 00:45:35,833]
段永平：这跟小孩不一样

[00:45:35,833 --> 00:45:36,300]
段永平：你不喜欢

[00:45:36,300 --> 00:45:37,000]
段永平：你还得留着

[00:45:37,868 --> 00:45:38,802]
方三文：那股票你不喜欢

[00:45:38,802 --> 00:45:40,637]
方三文：你可以用脚投票的

[00:45:41,338 --> 00:45:43,440]
方三文：那我们接下来把它说细一点

[00:45:43,974 --> 00:45:44,641]
方三文：你刚才说

[00:45:46,210 --> 00:45:48,412]
方三文：理解买股票就是买公司

[00:45:48,412 --> 00:45:49,179]
方三文：这个理念是容易的

[00:45:49,947 --> 00:45:50,981]
方三文：但是要搞懂一家具体

[00:45:50,981 --> 00:45:51,381]
方三文：不容易

[00:45:53,417 --> 00:45:53,917]
方三文：不容易

[00:45:54,017 --> 00:45:55,452]
方三文：理解这句话非常难

[00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:56,687]
方三文：我看

[00:45:57,287 --> 00:45:58,956]
方三文：你在雪球上那些球友们

[00:45:59,156 --> 00:46:01,024]
方三文：能有1%的人真懂这句话

[00:46:01,024 --> 00:46:01,792]
段永平：就了不起

[00:46:02,226 --> 00:46:03,260]
段永平：做到就更难

[00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:04,928]
段永平：但是做不到的人

[00:46:04,928 --> 00:46:05,896]
段永平：也是能挣钱的

[00:46:06,396 --> 00:46:07,698]
段永平：他倒不一定是他不懂

[00:46:07,698 --> 00:46:09,333]
段永平：他根本他理解就不是这个

[00:46:09,633 --> 00:46:11,034]
段永平：我说的就是这个意思

[00:46:11,335 --> 00:46:12,669]
段永平：所以这理解不是这个

[00:46:12,736 --> 00:46:14,004]
段永平：不就是不懂吗

[00:46:15,973 --> 00:46:17,107]
段永平：当你懂了以后

[00:46:17,107 --> 00:46:18,609]
段永平：你就不会受市场影响

[00:46:18,909 --> 00:46:21,378]
段永平：如果你还天天看市场

[00:46:23,013 --> 00:46:25,115]
段永平：天天看动态

[00:46:25,249 --> 00:46:27,618]
段永平：天天看过去怎么样

[00:46:27,985 --> 00:46:29,953]
段永平：哪怕是很大V的人我看见

[00:46:30,387 --> 00:46:30,988]
段永平：一天到晚

[00:46:30,988 --> 00:46:31,955]
段永平：在讲市场怎么样

[00:46:32,022 --> 00:46:32,589]
段永平：市场怎么样

[00:46:32,589 --> 00:46:33,457]
段永平：他就是不懂

[00:46:34,258 --> 00:46:35,159]
段永平：他要是懂的话

[00:46:35,659 --> 00:46:37,528]
段永平：你看我什么时候讲市场

[00:46:37,861 --> 00:46:38,896]
段永平：什么时候我在雪球上说

[00:46:38,896 --> 00:46:39,696]
段永平：今天要涨了

[00:46:39,730 --> 00:46:40,531]
段永平：明天要掉了

[00:46:40,731 --> 00:46:42,132]
段永平：那你就肯定是不懂

[00:46:42,132 --> 00:46:43,167]
段永平：当然这是我的理解

[00:46:43,567 --> 00:46:45,169]
段永平：不懂他不等于不挣钱

[00:46:45,235 --> 00:46:46,436]
段永平：投资这个东西很有意思

[00:46:46,436 --> 00:46:48,172]
段永平：你闭着眼睛买一只拿着

[00:46:49,173 --> 00:46:50,040]
段永平：你100个人里头

[00:46:50,107 --> 00:46:51,575]
段永平：其实是有50个人可以挣钱

[00:46:51,775 --> 00:46:53,310]
段永平：那这50个人就可以出来讲

[00:46:53,443 --> 00:46:54,545]
段永平：我是因为这样挣了钱

[00:46:55,712 --> 00:46:56,847]
段永平：你这个东西

[00:46:56,847 --> 00:46:58,615]
段永平：但是你要让他重复

[00:46:58,615 --> 00:46:59,449]
段永平：他就没有那么容易

[00:47:00,184 --> 00:47:02,452]
段永平：但是你要是做投资生意的人

[00:47:03,053 --> 00:47:04,087]
段永平：他只要拿到钱

[00:47:04,188 --> 00:47:05,389]
段永平：你其实很简单

[00:47:05,389 --> 00:47:07,090]
方三文：我可以教大家一个赚钱的办法

[00:47:07,090 --> 00:47:07,925]
方三文：你就买标普500指数

[00:47:07,925 --> 00:47:09,526]
方三文：你最后总是赚钱

[00:47:11,461 --> 00:47:13,397]
方三文：但是这不等于你就懂了吗

[00:47:13,897 --> 00:47:15,299]
段永平：但是你要是真的这样做

[00:47:15,332 --> 00:47:16,867]
段永平：其实也表示你是懂了

[00:47:16,867 --> 00:47:17,134]
段永平：对

[00:47:17,134 --> 00:47:18,635]
段永平：那我们再接下来说

[00:47:19,336 --> 00:47:20,671]
方三文：如果认同了这个东西

[00:47:20,671 --> 00:47:21,972]
方三文：或者懂了这个东西

[00:47:21,972 --> 00:47:23,407]
方三文：就是搞懂公司还是很难

[00:47:24,141 --> 00:47:24,942]
方三文：那人家问的是

[00:47:25,108 --> 00:47:26,410]
方三文：比如说怎么样确定

[00:47:26,877 --> 00:47:27,978]
段永平：怎么样搞懂一个公司

[00:47:27,978 --> 00:47:29,246]
段永平：怎么确定自己搞懂公司

[00:47:29,246 --> 00:47:31,181]
段永平：我们就以网易为例

[00:47:32,349 --> 00:47:34,251]
段永平：你怎么样把它搞懂了

[00:47:34,418 --> 00:47:35,853]
段永平：怎么样确定自己搞懂

[00:47:35,853 --> 00:47:37,888]
段永平：就是你想我本身做游戏出身

[00:47:38,222 --> 00:47:39,089]
段永平：然后我一看他们

[00:47:39,590 --> 00:47:40,924]
段永平：我跟他们游戏团队聊聊

[00:47:40,924 --> 00:47:42,826]
段永平：觉得他们是一帮很热爱游戏的人

[00:47:43,026 --> 00:47:44,094]
段永平：他们真的很认真

[00:47:44,661 --> 00:47:45,195]
段永平：这是第一

[00:47:45,195 --> 00:47:46,897]
段永平：第二 这个商业模式

[00:47:46,930 --> 00:47:49,499]
段永平：我看着我觉得它很有道理

[00:47:49,666 --> 00:47:51,435]
段永平：加上它的现金比市值高

[00:47:51,835 --> 00:47:52,469]
方三文：当时啊

[00:47:53,136 --> 00:47:54,671]
方三文：那我作为风投一样的

[00:47:54,671 --> 00:47:55,906]
方三文：我买进去很简单

[00:47:56,006 --> 00:47:57,941]
方三文：加上当时有这个契机

[00:47:58,742 --> 00:48:00,377]
方三文：刚好股票就低成那个样子

[00:48:00,377 --> 00:48:02,613]
段永平：大家都是恐慌性的

[00:48:02,613 --> 00:48:03,814]
段永平：觉得他们要完蛋了

[00:48:03,814 --> 00:48:07,084]
段永平：那我觉得他们大概率是有机会挣钱的

[00:48:07,951 --> 00:48:09,486]
段永平：刚好我账上有点现金

[00:48:09,486 --> 00:48:10,187]
段永平：我就都

[00:48:10,954 --> 00:48:12,055]
段永平：我是满仓买了网易

[00:48:14,124 --> 00:48:15,392]
段永平：6个月涨了20倍

[00:48:17,194 --> 00:48:19,129]
段永平：那你想我当然是觉得

[00:48:19,129 --> 00:48:19,930]
段永平：怎么说呢

[00:48:19,930 --> 00:48:20,931]
段永平：你说我看懂了吗

[00:48:21,365 --> 00:48:21,965]
段永平：我要看懂了

[00:48:21,965 --> 00:48:23,367]
段永平：我应该把整个网易买下来啊

[00:48:23,834 --> 00:48:25,235]
段永平：所以懂这个东西

[00:48:25,235 --> 00:48:26,003]
段永平：我也不知道是什么意思

[00:48:26,003 --> 00:48:27,638]
方三文：但是我大致上是觉得

[00:48:28,605 --> 00:48:29,539]
方三文：他们是能挣钱的

[00:48:29,940 --> 00:48:31,575]
方三文：我觉得我的投资风险不会

[00:48:31,975 --> 00:48:32,676]
方三文：不会说特别大

[00:48:33,310 --> 00:48:34,611]
方三文：但是我说账上的钱其实

[00:48:35,212 --> 00:48:36,480]
方三文：就账上有点现金

[00:48:36,713 --> 00:48:39,149]
方三文：不是很大的比重

[00:48:41,084 --> 00:48:41,852]
方三文：也不公平了

[00:48:41,885 --> 00:48:44,655]
方三文：就为什么你能够拿到那么久

[00:48:44,721 --> 00:48:46,189]
方三文：赚了那么多钱你还不卖

[00:48:46,823 --> 00:48:48,525]
段永平：问题那些钱对我来讲它并不多

[00:48:48,959 --> 00:48:50,927]
段永平：所以我可以比较理性的去想一件事情

[00:48:50,927 --> 00:48:52,229]
段永平：如果我只有那么多钱

[00:48:53,563 --> 00:48:55,399]
方三文：我还真保不住我也可能卖掉

[00:48:55,532 --> 00:48:58,669]
方三文：所以保持理性是一件很难的事情

[00:48:58,669 --> 00:48:59,002]
段永平：那么对网易的判断里面

[00:48:59,002 --> 00:49:00,404]
段永平：那么对网易的判断里面

[00:49:00,404 --> 00:49:01,138]
段永平：它包括了

[00:49:01,838 --> 00:49:03,473]
段永平：听起来包括了两个部分

[00:49:04,374 --> 00:49:06,076]
方三文：一 你对这个游戏这个商业

[00:49:06,376 --> 00:49:07,778]
方三文：本身有个判断

[00:49:07,945 --> 00:49:09,279]
段永平：觉得它是能挣钱的

[00:49:09,780 --> 00:49:11,915]
段永平：那当然 我是谁啊

[00:49:11,915 --> 00:49:13,283]
段永平：我做游戏出身的呀

[00:49:13,517 --> 00:49:15,252]
段永平：我可懂游戏了

[00:49:16,586 --> 00:49:18,288]
段永平：还包括一个对它的定价

[00:49:18,288 --> 00:49:20,023]
段永平：比如说它的股价很低啊

[00:49:20,023 --> 00:49:22,626]
段永平：比如说可能低于它的持有的净现金

[00:49:22,793 --> 00:49:24,361]
段永平：这个其实也是老巴说的

[00:49:24,528 --> 00:49:25,662]
段永平：什么安全边际

[00:49:25,796 --> 00:49:27,864]
方三文：老巴的安全边际不是指这个

[00:49:27,864 --> 00:49:29,967]
方三文：安全边际指的是你对公司有多懂

[00:49:30,233 --> 00:49:31,301]
方三文：这是我的理解

[00:49:31,735 --> 00:49:32,936]
段永平：不是说有多便宜

[00:49:33,403 --> 00:49:34,604]
段永平：便宜东西可以更便宜的

[00:49:35,205 --> 00:49:36,106]
段永平：当时我就是觉得

[00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:37,507]
方三文：他们是有机会赚钱

[00:49:37,941 --> 00:49:39,309]
段永平：但是并不知道它能赚多少

[00:49:39,309 --> 00:49:41,244]
段永平：我要知道它能赚今天这么多钱

[00:49:41,244 --> 00:49:42,479]
段永平：我哪怕晚一点

[00:49:42,479 --> 00:49:43,480]
段永平：我也会多买

[00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:44,448]
段永平：我也不会卖

[00:49:44,448 --> 00:49:45,449]
段永平：我后来也是卖掉的

[00:49:45,449 --> 00:49:47,084]
段永平：说明表示我其实也没有那么懂

[00:49:47,751 --> 00:49:49,419]
段永平：那么懂和不懂

[00:49:49,586 --> 00:49:50,787]
段永平：其实按你这么说

[00:49:50,787 --> 00:49:52,756]
段永平：其实它处于一个灰色的区域

[00:49:53,290 --> 00:49:56,226]
段永平：不是那么清晰的一个标准 是这样吗

[00:49:56,393 --> 00:49:57,027]
段永平：我也不知道

[00:49:58,362 --> 00:49:59,062]
段永平：但是

[00:49:59,863 --> 00:50:02,165]
段永平：到处问人家的人肯定是不懂的

[00:50:02,899 --> 00:50:04,167]
段永平：但是不问的人呢

[00:50:04,167 --> 00:50:05,202]
段永平：是不是就懂了

[00:50:05,602 --> 00:50:07,671]
段永平：你可以说它属于灰色地带

[00:50:07,671 --> 00:50:09,139]
段永平：至少我赚了100多倍嘛

[00:50:09,740 --> 00:50:11,541]
段永平：那你说我懂还是不懂

[00:50:13,443 --> 00:50:14,911]
段永平：我卖肯定有我卖的原因

[00:50:14,911 --> 00:50:15,846]
段永平：有卖的道理

[00:50:15,846 --> 00:50:17,581]
段永平：而且我其实也没少赚

[00:50:17,647 --> 00:50:20,283]
段永平：因为我有其他的

[00:50:20,417 --> 00:50:23,387]
段永平：我觉得也很好的投资标的

[00:50:23,720 --> 00:50:25,822]
方三文：那我们再说另一个标的

[00:50:28,525 --> 00:50:31,695]
段永平：我倾向于认为是不是你投资的

[00:50:31,695 --> 00:50:33,430]
段永平：目前的占比最大的

[00:50:33,930 --> 00:50:35,599]
段永平：就是苹果这个公司

[00:50:36,433 --> 00:50:37,701]
段永平：这个公司

[00:50:39,202 --> 00:50:40,704]
段永平：你投资的金额大

[00:50:40,704 --> 00:50:41,772]
段永平：赚的钱也多

[00:50:42,272 --> 00:50:46,076]
方三文：有个用户叫“莉莉安78”他问

[00:50:46,543 --> 00:50:48,979]
方三文：15年前苹果是一个卖硬件的公司

[00:50:48,979 --> 00:50:51,181]
段永平：现在利润一半硬件一半软件

[00:50:51,615 --> 00:50:54,885]
段永平：这个商业模式的变化

[00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:56,420]
段永平：你买的时候

[00:50:56,820 --> 00:50:57,954]
段永平：是不是就有这个判断

[00:50:58,188 --> 00:50:59,689]
段永平：我是2011年买的

[00:51:00,624 --> 00:51:01,691]
段永平：那个时候已经很清晰了

[00:51:03,727 --> 00:51:05,462]
段永平：就是你当时能判断

[00:51:05,462 --> 00:51:08,398]
段永平：类似平台业务

[00:51:08,532 --> 00:51:09,966]
段永平：这个软件的业务

[00:51:10,133 --> 00:51:11,201]
段永平：它会创造更多的利润

[00:51:11,935 --> 00:51:12,903]
段永平：我是这个行当里头的

[00:51:12,903 --> 00:51:13,870]
段永平：我怎么会不知道

[00:51:13,904 --> 00:51:15,038]
段永平：那都不是叫判断

[00:51:15,739 --> 00:51:18,208]
段永平：那是一个你看得见的一个东西

[00:51:18,308 --> 00:51:19,576]
段永平：水桶里的鱼

[00:51:20,110 --> 00:51:21,178]
段永平：那倒谈不上

[00:51:21,178 --> 00:51:24,681]
段永平：但至少是一个不远处的大象吧

[00:51:24,681 --> 00:51:25,849]
段永平：你不需要判断

[00:51:25,849 --> 00:51:27,350]
段永平：你就知道那就是一头大象

[00:51:27,350 --> 00:51:28,485]
段永平：就能看见

[00:51:28,485 --> 00:51:29,119]
方三文：能看得见了

[00:51:29,786 --> 00:51:31,388]
方三文：我们自己就在做这个生意

[00:51:31,388 --> 00:51:32,422]
段永平：我当然能看见

[00:51:32,956 --> 00:51:34,858]
段永平：那可以这样子判断

[00:51:34,991 --> 00:51:37,027]
段永平：苹果的商业模式是很好的话

[00:51:37,694 --> 00:51:39,362]
段永平：我觉得好像

[00:51:39,896 --> 00:51:42,199]
段永平：你在企业文化方面

[00:51:42,599 --> 00:51:44,267]
段永平：对苹果好像也是有一个判断

[00:51:44,501 --> 00:51:45,502]
段永平：是这样吗

[00:51:45,502 --> 00:51:47,104]
段永平：对 我觉得他们企业文化很好

[00:51:47,804 --> 00:51:49,005]
段永平：那你能说一说

[00:51:49,206 --> 00:51:51,408]
段永平：你为什么认为他的企业文化很好

[00:51:51,875 --> 00:51:53,844]
段永平：我觉得他们用户导向做的很好

[00:51:54,177 --> 00:51:56,713]
段永平：他们不是那种很生意导向的公司

[00:51:56,813 --> 00:51:59,149]
段永平：他们非常的在乎把东西做好

[00:51:59,449 --> 00:52:01,184]
段永平：非常的在乎用户体验

[00:52:01,551 --> 00:52:02,786]
段永平：非常的在乎怎么改善

[00:52:02,886 --> 00:52:04,387]
段永平：非常的想得很长远

[00:52:06,056 --> 00:52:09,426]
段永平：所以 他们给用户提供不了

[00:52:10,193 --> 00:52:11,061]
段永平：价值的东西

[00:52:11,061 --> 00:52:13,396]
段永平：或者提供不了足够价值的产品

[00:52:14,097 --> 00:52:15,866]
段永平：你再热门他们也不会做

[00:52:16,333 --> 00:52:18,135]
段永平：你看我给你举个特别简单的例子

[00:52:18,802 --> 00:52:20,604]
段永平：我们发生过争论 对不对

[00:52:20,604 --> 00:52:22,172]
段永平：你说苹果到底会不会出大屏

[00:52:22,172 --> 00:52:23,240]
段永平：我说他们一定会

[00:52:23,707 --> 00:52:24,508]
段永平：你还记得吗

[00:52:24,708 --> 00:52:25,208]
段永平：我记得

[00:52:25,208 --> 00:52:25,809]
段永平：记得吧

[00:52:25,976 --> 00:52:27,410]
段永平：但是我们等了三年才出来

[00:52:27,944 --> 00:52:29,613]
段永平：但是我怎么就知道它会出大屏

[00:52:30,180 --> 00:52:32,015]
段永平：我怎么知道它会出大屏

[00:52:32,682 --> 00:52:33,683]
段永平：你能回答这个问题吗

[00:52:34,317 --> 00:52:37,687]
段永平：我觉得因为大屏是用户的需求

[00:52:37,988 --> 00:52:38,355]
段永平：对啊

[00:52:38,488 --> 00:52:39,589]
段永平：我们做这行的

[00:52:39,890 --> 00:52:41,224]
段永平：我们大屏都出来了

[00:52:41,791 --> 00:52:42,792]
段永平：那苹果

[00:52:43,093 --> 00:52:45,462]
段永平：所以我就知道用户是一定会要大屏的

[00:52:46,796 --> 00:52:48,398]
段永平：但是我没想到他们扛了三年

[00:52:49,199 --> 00:52:51,501]
段永平：这个事情就是我也是很困惑的

[00:52:51,801 --> 00:52:53,503]
段永平：就是因为我们这些用户

[00:52:53,503 --> 00:52:54,137]
段永平：买了手机的

[00:52:54,137 --> 00:52:54,971]
段永平：我从来没有困惑过

[00:52:55,105 --> 00:52:56,640]
段永平：我就知道他们犯错误了

[00:52:56,706 --> 00:52:58,208]
段永平：他们停在

[00:52:59,576 --> 00:53:02,078]
段永平：蒂姆·库克在这个地方犯了一个非常大的错误

[00:53:02,078 --> 00:53:02,412]
段永平：就是

[00:53:02,979 --> 00:53:04,381]
段永平：他有点像中村

[00:53:04,581 --> 00:53:05,582]
段永平：乔布斯说过

[00:53:06,249 --> 00:53:06,983]
段永平：这个是最好的

[00:53:07,984 --> 00:53:09,319]
段永平：所以他们就不屑去做

[00:53:09,319 --> 00:53:10,720]
段永平：其实他们早就在研究

[00:53:11,421 --> 00:53:13,757]
段永平：研究室里头所有的大屏它都有的

[00:53:13,890 --> 00:53:15,192]
段永平：但是他们就是没有推

[00:53:15,725 --> 00:53:17,027]
段永平：当然他们可能也有些是因为

[00:53:17,027 --> 00:53:18,128]
段永平：觉得性能还不够好

[00:53:18,128 --> 00:53:18,995]
段永平：或者什么原因

[00:53:19,029 --> 00:53:19,329]
段永平：我不知道

[00:53:19,629 --> 00:53:20,697]
段永平：反正最后它不推了

[00:53:22,465 --> 00:53:24,167]
段永平：那我另外给你再举个例子

[00:53:24,167 --> 00:53:26,236]
段永平：最早的时候他们说要做iTV

[00:53:26,503 --> 00:53:26,736]
段永平：就是

[00:53:27,637 --> 00:53:28,238]
段永平：电视机啊

[00:53:29,072 --> 00:53:30,073]
段永平：不是Apple TV

[00:53:30,307 --> 00:53:30,907]
段永平：不是Apple TV

[00:53:30,907 --> 00:53:32,576]
段永平：Apple TV是小盒子

[00:53:32,576 --> 00:53:33,643]
段永平：机顶盒嘛

[00:53:34,811 --> 00:53:35,545]
段永平：有人跟我讲

[00:53:35,812 --> 00:53:36,913]
段永平：我记得打球的时候

[00:53:37,314 --> 00:53:38,315]
段永平：信誓旦旦告诉我

[00:53:38,315 --> 00:53:40,350]
段永平：他们一定会做 样品都看见了

[00:53:40,350 --> 00:53:41,284]
段永平：我说他们一定不会

[00:53:42,219 --> 00:53:42,886]
段永平：他们问我为什么

[00:53:43,587 --> 00:53:45,522]
段永平：我说他们能做什么

[00:53:45,522 --> 00:53:46,356]
段永平：我用同样的话

[00:53:46,356 --> 00:53:47,624]
段永平：跟我公司的人也讲过

[00:53:47,624 --> 00:53:48,525]
段永平：因为我们也做电视

[00:53:48,525 --> 00:53:50,327]
段永平：他们后来就把它砍掉了

[00:53:50,527 --> 00:53:51,628]
段永平：后来刘作虎上来

[00:53:51,628 --> 00:53:52,295]
段永平：又做了一次

[00:53:52,629 --> 00:53:53,230]
段永平：又砍了一次

[00:53:54,030 --> 00:53:55,665]
段永平：我说咋回事刘作虎

[00:53:55,665 --> 00:53:57,334]
段永平：我当年就跟你讲过的

[00:53:58,034 --> 00:53:59,336]
段永平：我们为什么不做电视

[00:53:59,336 --> 00:54:00,270]
段永平：他非要再尝一下

[00:54:00,637 --> 00:54:01,638]
方三文：陈明永还让他试了

[00:54:02,606 --> 00:54:04,207]
段永平：陈明永就当年我让他试一样

[00:54:04,207 --> 00:54:04,741]
方三文：他也就让

[00:54:04,741 --> 00:54:06,643]
方三文：其实你看我们的风格还是很像的

[00:54:06,743 --> 00:54:08,645]
方三文：他并没有说不允许你做

[00:54:08,645 --> 00:54:09,546]
段永平：你要做就做

[00:54:10,614 --> 00:54:11,781]
段永平：试完他觉得确实不对

[00:54:12,215 --> 00:54:13,650]
段永平：因为它没有办法提供

[00:54:14,317 --> 00:54:15,151]
段永平：太有价值的东西

[00:54:15,151 --> 00:54:15,719]
段永平：最后一个

[00:54:16,686 --> 00:54:17,287]
段永平：十几年前

[00:54:18,021 --> 00:54:19,189]
方三文：到处就在说苹果

[00:54:19,189 --> 00:54:21,024]
方三文：要出苹果车

[00:54:21,324 --> 00:54:21,925]
方三文：电动车

[00:54:23,426 --> 00:54:25,328]
方三文：我说它们绝不会有这个电动车的

[00:54:26,429 --> 00:54:27,364]
段永平：最后很多人说不可能

[00:54:27,364 --> 00:54:28,798]
段永平：他说它们都在做了

[00:54:29,566 --> 00:54:30,333]
段永平：我说它们做不出来

[00:54:31,601 --> 00:54:32,402]
段永平：不是技术的问题

[00:54:33,136 --> 00:54:34,771]
段永平：是它们到底能干什么

[00:54:35,372 --> 00:54:36,106]
段永平：那么大个车

[00:54:37,107 --> 00:54:38,708]
段永平：苹果能够提供的价值

[00:54:38,808 --> 00:54:39,743]
段永平：非常的有限

[00:54:40,310 --> 00:54:40,844]
段永平：它卖什么价

[00:54:42,912 --> 00:54:44,147]
段永平：它是不是最后要卷入

[00:54:44,147 --> 00:54:45,181]
段永平：这样那样的

[00:54:45,181 --> 00:54:46,583]
段永平：它就没有足够的差异化

[00:54:46,916 --> 00:54:49,452]
段永平：这是我对苹果比一般人了解的地方

[00:54:49,786 --> 00:54:50,487]
段永平：很多人跟我讲

[00:54:50,487 --> 00:54:50,987]
段永平：这不可能

[00:54:50,987 --> 00:54:52,188]
段永平：它们苹果车就快出

[00:54:52,188 --> 00:54:52,589]
段永平：就快出

[00:54:52,589 --> 00:54:53,323]
段永平：我说如果出

[00:54:53,323 --> 00:54:53,957]
段永平：我很高兴

[00:54:54,224 --> 00:54:56,092]
段永平：我很想看到它们到底能做什么

[00:54:56,126 --> 00:54:57,661]
段永平：但是我就是认为它们做不出来

[00:54:57,927 --> 00:54:58,495]
段永平：直到最近

[00:54:59,129 --> 00:55:01,097]
方三文：我到纽约

[00:55:01,531 --> 00:55:04,134]
方三文：碰到苹果店的那个老板

[00:55:04,434 --> 00:55:06,936]
方三文：是苹果店的老板

[00:55:06,936 --> 00:55:07,871]
方三文：不是苹果的老板

[00:55:08,705 --> 00:55:09,239]
方三文：他告诉我

[00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:10,740]
方三文：他们那个店停了三年

[00:55:12,309 --> 00:55:12,909]
段永平：改了一次

[00:55:13,209 --> 00:55:15,645]
段永平：是准备卖苹果车的那个改法

[00:55:15,879 --> 00:55:16,746]
段永平：后来又改回来

[00:55:16,746 --> 00:55:18,615]
段永平：我说原来你们其实早就知道

[00:55:18,615 --> 00:55:20,050]
段永平：它们不卖苹果车的

[00:55:20,250 --> 00:55:22,085]
段永平：他们至少提前一年到两年

[00:55:22,085 --> 00:55:22,786]
段永平：就知道这个事

[00:55:23,620 --> 00:55:24,788]
段永平：但是苹果其实没有宣布

[00:55:26,056 --> 00:55:27,057]
段永平：由于某些原因 我不知道

[00:55:28,224 --> 00:55:28,958]
段永平：我一听我觉得

[00:55:29,426 --> 00:55:31,428]
段永平：它们还真是做过苹果车

[00:55:32,462 --> 00:55:34,464]
段永平：其实这个都超出我想象的

[00:55:34,464 --> 00:55:36,032]
段永平：我以为它们只是在研究呢

[00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:38,668]
段永平：它们其实真的打算做

[00:55:39,235 --> 00:55:40,704]
段永平：但是它们真的最后没有做

[00:55:41,604 --> 00:55:42,806]
段永平：所以它出来的时候我很高兴

[00:55:42,806 --> 00:55:43,373]
段永平：我说哎

[00:55:43,406 --> 00:55:44,641]
方三文：你看果然像我说那样

[00:55:45,208 --> 00:55:46,509]
方三文：其实这就是它的文化

[00:55:46,910 --> 00:55:47,644]
方三文：它的文化就是

[00:55:47,644 --> 00:55:50,814]
方三文：它发现它的产品没有办法给用户增加

[00:55:51,081 --> 00:55:52,182]
方三文：足够的价值的时候

[00:55:52,816 --> 00:55:53,650]
方三文：它们就不碰了

[00:55:53,650 --> 00:55:55,051]
方三文：它们不会为了生意去做

[00:55:55,418 --> 00:55:57,420]
段永平：它们要是为了做生意的话

[00:55:57,620 --> 00:55:58,655]
段永平：它完全可以做一个车

[00:55:58,722 --> 00:55:59,289]
段永平：它要做车

[00:55:59,289 --> 00:55:59,823]
段永平：你想

[00:55:59,823 --> 00:56:01,624]
段永平：也不会有谁比它做的更好

[00:56:01,958 --> 00:56:05,695]
段永平：至少它也会跟最好的电动车差不多好

[00:56:05,695 --> 00:56:06,796]
段永平：我想它是肯定可以做得到

[00:56:08,064 --> 00:56:09,132]
段永平：它那么有钱有人

[00:56:10,233 --> 00:56:11,034]
段永平：它完全可以做得到

[00:56:11,334 --> 00:56:12,902]
段永平：但是它到底最后会怎么样

[00:56:13,636 --> 00:56:14,337]
段永平：我不知道

[00:56:14,337 --> 00:56:16,272]
段永平：我觉得这是我的理解

[00:56:16,272 --> 00:56:18,942]
段永平：我觉得这家公司的文化还是蛮好的

[00:56:18,942 --> 00:56:21,044]
段永平：当然好文化的公司也不少啊

[00:56:21,878 --> 00:56:24,547]
段永平：但是它也可能也会犯错

[00:56:24,614 --> 00:56:26,249]
段永平：当然每个人都会犯错

[00:56:26,449 --> 00:56:28,852]
段永平：就比如说刚才你举的做大屏手机

[00:56:29,219 --> 00:56:30,220]
段永平：三年没做

[00:56:30,820 --> 00:56:31,988]
段永平：然后差一点做的苹果车

[00:56:31,988 --> 00:56:32,355]
方三文：文化好

[00:56:32,355 --> 00:56:33,490]
方三文：最主要的就是它

[00:56:34,591 --> 00:56:38,161]
段永平：叫做最终它会走回正道

[00:56:39,429 --> 00:56:41,197]
段永平：因为它是有一个

[00:56:41,865 --> 00:56:45,001]
段永平：就叫做有一个北斗星在指引着它

[00:56:45,468 --> 00:56:46,436]
段永平：它到底该干什么

[00:56:46,870 --> 00:56:47,804]
段永平：不是为了生意

[00:56:48,338 --> 00:56:48,905]
段永平：为了生意

[00:56:48,905 --> 00:56:51,174]
段永平：你仅仅是讨论生意是很容易犯错误的

[00:56:51,775 --> 00:56:53,877]
段永平：如果有好的文化的话

[00:56:54,277 --> 00:56:56,780]
段永平：是并不能完全避免犯错

[00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:58,348]
方三文：但是可能犯了错误

[00:56:58,348 --> 00:56:58,815]
方三文：那当然

[00:56:58,882 --> 00:56:59,749]
方三文：被纠正的概率

[00:56:59,816 --> 00:57:00,917]
段永平：没有好的文化呢

[00:57:01,251 --> 00:57:02,218]
段永平：其实犯错误的概率

[00:57:02,218 --> 00:57:03,686]
段永平：大家其实都差不多的

[00:57:03,686 --> 00:57:06,856]
段永平：只是说你犯不犯下去

[00:57:06,856 --> 00:57:08,591]
段永平：还有就是你有没有不为清单

[00:57:09,192 --> 00:57:10,527]
段永平：那我们上了

[00:57:11,494 --> 00:57:12,228]
方三文：停止做的事情

[00:57:12,228 --> 00:57:14,464]
段永平：那我们犯这一类错误概率就小了嘛

[00:57:15,165 --> 00:57:16,599]
段永平：所以我们三十年下来

[00:57:16,599 --> 00:57:18,902]
段永平：我们犯的错误就比其他人少

[00:57:19,235 --> 00:57:21,871]
段永平：我觉得其实最主要的就是这个东西

[00:57:22,138 --> 00:57:22,605]
段永平：你看我在

[00:57:23,139 --> 00:57:24,908]
段永平：雪球上不写的那一条嘛

[00:57:25,341 --> 00:57:28,044]
段永平：人们关心的是我们做过什么

[00:57:28,278 --> 00:57:30,280]
方三文：其实我们之所以成为我们

[00:57:30,647 --> 00:57:33,049]
方三文：很大的原因是因为我们不做的那些事情

[00:57:33,650 --> 00:57:34,284]
方三文：因为不做

[00:57:34,451 --> 00:57:36,719]
方三文：因为我们知道这个事对我们不合适

[00:57:36,719 --> 00:57:37,520]
方三文：我们就不做了

[00:57:38,421 --> 00:57:40,423]
段永平：那不做我们不就少犯很多错误嘛

[00:57:40,423 --> 00:57:41,291]
段永平：那你攒下来的

[00:57:41,291 --> 00:57:43,226]
段永平：不就是做对的事情的概率就大了

[00:57:43,359 --> 00:57:46,029]
段永平：其实就是小小的一点点的差别

[00:57:46,029 --> 00:57:48,565]
段永平：可能差30年就是很大的差别

[00:57:48,631 --> 00:57:52,702]
段永平：那么现在价格的苹果 你觉得投资

[00:57:52,702 --> 00:57:53,203]
段永平：不便宜

[00:57:53,503 --> 00:57:54,537]
段永平：不便宜是吧

[00:57:55,004 --> 00:57:56,105]
段永平：就是从投资回报率的

[00:57:56,339 --> 00:57:57,807]
段永平：也不可能寄予很高的期望

[00:57:58,107 --> 00:57:59,042]
段永平：是的

[00:57:59,042 --> 00:58:00,844]
段永平：那也看用户本身

[00:58:00,844 --> 00:58:02,278]
段永平：他的机会成本是多少

[00:58:02,679 --> 00:58:04,848]
方三文：他如果把钱存在银行里

[00:58:05,515 --> 00:58:07,450]
段永平：拿一个多点的利息的话

[00:58:07,617 --> 00:58:10,086]
段永平：那你还真不如买苹果

[00:58:10,086 --> 00:58:11,120]
段永平：但是

[00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:12,989]
段永平：你可以一年赚个十几个点

[00:58:13,623 --> 00:58:16,492]
段永平：那你可能真的就没必要买苹果

[00:58:16,492 --> 00:58:17,927]
段永平：苹果最后有没有发展

[00:58:17,927 --> 00:58:18,862]
段永平：其实我也不知道

[00:58:18,862 --> 00:58:21,965]
段永平：苹果其实它还是一直都很强的

[00:58:22,131 --> 00:58:23,299]
段永平：它有那么多的用户

[00:58:23,299 --> 00:58:24,534]
段永平：AI最后落地在哪

[00:58:24,634 --> 00:58:27,003]
段永平：不还是要在手机上嘛

[00:58:27,003 --> 00:58:29,873]
段永平：那苹果将来再翻一倍两倍三倍都是有可能的

[00:58:30,540 --> 00:58:31,941]
段永平：但是我不知道

[00:58:32,141 --> 00:58:34,277]
段永平：不是说它就一定不行

[00:58:34,277 --> 00:58:35,311]
方三文：但是它不便宜

[00:58:35,311 --> 00:58:36,079]
方三文：好的

[00:58:36,379 --> 00:58:38,915]
段永平：你也曾经在2008年的时候

[00:58:38,915 --> 00:58:39,849]
段永平：买过通用电气

[00:58:40,183 --> 00:58:42,151]
段永平：后来你认为是

[00:58:42,852 --> 00:58:44,921]
段永平：对它的看法是有些变化的

[00:58:45,622 --> 00:58:47,657]
段永平：对它的看法的变化

[00:58:48,057 --> 00:58:49,959]
段永平：主要是在商业模式还是企业文化方面

[00:58:50,126 --> 00:58:52,161]
段永平：以前我觉得是在企业文化上

[00:58:52,161 --> 00:58:54,097]
段永平：因为商业模式其实我一直就没看懂

[00:58:54,430 --> 00:58:55,932]
段永平：但企业文化我以前喜欢

[00:58:55,932 --> 00:58:58,134]
段永平：它们说的这个时代在变

[00:58:58,568 --> 00:58:59,903]
段永平：唯一不变成是诚信

[00:58:59,903 --> 00:59:01,571]
段永平：它们对诚信特别强调

[00:59:01,571 --> 00:59:03,940]
段永平：然后我后来我去看它们主页上

[00:59:03,940 --> 00:59:05,141]
段永平：我找不到这句话了

[00:59:05,475 --> 00:59:08,678]
段永平：我从找不到那句话开始我就决定卖了

[00:59:08,878 --> 00:59:10,480]
段永平：我就觉得它们都不再强调这件事情

[00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:11,814]
段永平：我就觉得好奇怪啊

[00:59:12,548 --> 00:59:14,183]
段永平：加上商业模式我确实看不懂

[00:59:15,051 --> 00:59:16,252]
段永平：它们买太多的公司

[00:59:16,619 --> 00:59:17,587]
段永平：买卖公司

[00:59:17,654 --> 00:59:20,056]
段永平：最早的是因为受杰克·韦尔奇的影响

[00:59:20,056 --> 00:59:21,591]
段永平：觉得这家公司好神奇

[00:59:22,458 --> 00:59:24,327]
段永平：后来发现其实也没有谁是神奇的

[00:59:24,661 --> 00:59:27,664]
段永平：这是不是对杰克·韦尔奇这个人你可能都祛魅了

[00:59:28,431 --> 00:59:29,432]
段永平：我倒也谈不上

[00:59:29,432 --> 00:59:30,133]
段永平：我不了解

[00:59:30,433 --> 00:59:31,301]
段永平：还好是卖了呀

[00:59:31,301 --> 00:59:31,834]
段永平：你想那个时候

[00:59:31,834 --> 00:59:33,536]
段永平：我卖的时候4000多个亿市值

[00:59:33,736 --> 00:59:34,871]
段永平：现在可能

[00:59:35,772 --> 00:59:36,940]
段永平：都不到了

[00:59:36,940 --> 00:59:38,975]
段永平：那你想我把那个换成苹果

[00:59:38,975 --> 00:59:39,842]
段永平：那多大差别啊

[00:59:40,410 --> 00:59:41,344]
段永平：我大概拿了有

[00:59:42,211 --> 00:59:43,680]
段永平：我都不记得两三年三四年

[00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:44,514]
段永平：没有拿太久

[00:59:45,415 --> 00:59:47,684]
段永平：但这单业务也是挣了钱的

[00:59:48,785 --> 00:59:50,353]
段永平：犯错误有时候也是会挣钱的

[00:59:50,620 --> 00:59:51,254]
段永平：所以

[00:59:52,422 --> 00:59:53,990]
段永平：我觉得那是一个错误

[00:59:55,091 --> 00:59:56,259]
段永平：回到今天我是不会买

[00:59:56,459 --> 00:59:58,962]
段永平：即使挣了钱你也不能否认它是个错误

[00:59:59,128 --> 01:00:00,229]
方三文：它当然是个错误

[01:00:00,396 --> 01:00:02,432]
方三文：因为它不符合我后来

[01:00:02,899 --> 01:00:04,801]
方三文：决定的你要符合企业文化

[01:00:05,101 --> 01:00:06,536]
方三文：就是商业模式 企业文化

[01:00:06,536 --> 01:00:07,604]
方三文：这两个过滤器

[01:00:07,670 --> 01:00:08,771]
方三文：再问一个公司

[01:00:09,606 --> 01:00:14,744]
段永平：你曾经包括可能现在应该还持有西方石油

[01:00:15,311 --> 01:00:16,546]
段永平：你也说这个是

[01:00:17,180 --> 01:00:18,648]
段永平：抄的老巴的作业

[01:00:18,648 --> 01:00:19,315]
段永平：它是

[01:00:19,515 --> 01:00:20,216]
段永平：但是

[01:00:20,617 --> 01:00:22,852]
段永平：这有一些历史的东西在里头

[01:00:22,852 --> 01:00:23,920]
段永平：因为我以前呢

[01:00:24,220 --> 01:00:25,488]
段永平：受另外一个朋友的影响

[01:00:25,488 --> 01:00:26,723]
段永平：我买过油气指数

[01:00:27,624 --> 01:00:28,458]
段永平：因为他告诉我

[01:00:28,858 --> 01:00:29,692]
段永平：那个东西呢

[01:00:30,593 --> 01:00:31,661]
段永平：因为那个时候我觉得

[01:00:31,661 --> 01:00:33,696]
段永平：那油气指数掉得太离谱了

[01:00:33,830 --> 01:00:35,999]
段永平：那个油不可能长期一直这样掉下去

[01:00:35,999 --> 01:00:37,100]
段永平：我就问他我说哎

[01:00:37,100 --> 01:00:41,871]
段永平：这个指数跟油气本身的价格

[01:00:42,138 --> 01:00:43,272]
段永平：有多大的关联度

[01:00:43,740 --> 01:00:44,841]
段永平：他说99个点

[01:00:44,841 --> 01:00:46,342]
段永平：哦 我说那很好啊

[01:00:46,809 --> 01:00:48,511]
段永平：那我就买了长期拿着嘛

[01:00:48,511 --> 01:00:49,779]
段永平：这个朋友是不是搞错了

[01:00:49,946 --> 01:00:50,480]
段永平：没有

[01:00:50,913 --> 01:00:51,481]
方三文：他没错

[01:00:51,481 --> 01:00:52,448]
方三文：但是他后来跟我

[01:00:53,449 --> 01:00:56,019]
段永平：我后来再问他你说的是怎么个关联

[01:00:56,019 --> 01:00:56,819]
段永平：他说每一天

[01:00:57,920 --> 01:00:59,122]
段永平：我一想 完了

[01:00:59,589 --> 01:01:01,090]
段永平：这每一天99%

[01:01:01,958 --> 01:01:03,526]
段永平：那个差别就大了

[01:01:03,593 --> 01:01:04,694]
段永平：不是长期了

[01:01:04,694 --> 01:01:06,896]
段永平：他这个短线的操作

[01:01:07,096 --> 01:01:08,698]
方三文：然后我就仔细的就关注了一下

[01:01:09,198 --> 01:01:12,335]
方三文：发现他其实他是要买期指啊

[01:01:12,702 --> 01:01:14,570]
方三文：买期权啊 买期货啊

[01:01:14,904 --> 01:01:16,639]
方三文：他其实都是在买期权的

[01:01:17,907 --> 01:01:19,042]
方三文：那我现在长期肯定是不能

[01:01:19,208 --> 01:01:20,176]
方三文：损耗成本是很高的

[01:01:20,176 --> 01:01:21,978]
方三文：时间损耗非常大

[01:01:22,812 --> 01:01:24,380]
方三文：那我就卖了啊

[01:01:24,514 --> 01:01:26,282]
方三文：我那个时候其实投了不少钱

[01:01:26,549 --> 01:01:27,984]
段永平：投了完了也不算很多

[01:01:27,984 --> 01:01:29,619]
段永平：但是差不多有一个亿的美金

[01:01:30,119 --> 01:01:31,320]
段永平：但是亏了1000多万

[01:01:31,721 --> 01:01:33,756]
段永平：我一看到这个东西想通了

[01:01:33,756 --> 01:01:35,558]
段永平：就是你看错的事情

[01:01:35,558 --> 01:01:36,626]
段永平：你要马上改一下

[01:01:37,093 --> 01:01:38,361]
段永平：我就通通都卖掉

[01:01:38,361 --> 01:01:40,697]
段永平：都卖了以后呢亏了1000多万啊

[01:01:41,064 --> 01:01:41,998]
段永平：1000万出头吧

[01:01:42,298 --> 01:01:44,634]
段永平：但是就有个小情结说哎呀

[01:01:45,101 --> 01:01:47,203]
段永平：那个油这个东西确实不好搞

[01:01:47,336 --> 01:01:48,304]
段永平：然后

[01:01:48,671 --> 01:01:50,840]
段永平：看到老巴买了西方石油以后

[01:01:50,907 --> 01:01:51,574]
段永平：我就有个

[01:01:53,009 --> 01:01:53,843]
段永平：念头就想

[01:01:53,843 --> 01:01:56,179]
段永平：这其实是一个买油的一个

[01:01:56,612 --> 01:01:57,447]
段永平：很有意思的办法

[01:01:57,447 --> 01:01:59,282]
段永平：就是买个油田存在地底下

[01:01:59,282 --> 01:02:00,817]
段永平：它不会受时间损耗

[01:02:01,350 --> 01:02:02,618]
段永平：那我说那我就买一点

[01:02:03,219 --> 01:02:04,153]
段永平：拿着呗

[01:02:04,587 --> 01:02:05,621]
段永平：可能放个20年

[01:02:06,189 --> 01:02:08,291]
段永平：我觉得20年以后油肯定不是这个价钱

[01:02:09,025 --> 01:02:09,792]
段永平：谁知道

[01:02:09,792 --> 01:02:11,260]
段永平：我对油没有那么了解

[01:02:11,894 --> 01:02:13,329]
段永平：所以我也不是很高的比重

[01:02:14,030 --> 01:02:15,231]
段永平：但是我就是有什么

[01:02:15,298 --> 01:02:16,866]
段永平：我就在雪球看见了我就说了

[01:02:16,866 --> 01:02:18,067]
段永平：大家就很当回事

[01:02:18,634 --> 01:02:20,136]
段永平：你要跟着我100%投进去

[01:02:20,136 --> 01:02:20,970]
段永平：那就是你的事

[01:02:20,970 --> 01:02:22,238]
段永平：这跟我也没关系

[01:02:22,605 --> 01:02:23,740]
段永平：那我投的比重非常小

[01:02:24,140 --> 01:02:26,876]
段永平：因为很多用户他倒也有自我的认知

[01:02:26,876 --> 01:02:28,578]
段永平：说自己对具体的公司

[01:02:29,479 --> 01:02:31,647]
段永平：理解是有限的

[01:02:31,647 --> 01:02:33,816]
段永平：但是他认可一些人

[01:02:33,816 --> 01:02:35,618]
段永平：他对公司有理解

[01:02:35,818 --> 01:02:36,953]
段永平：那么他发明那种

[01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:38,921]
段永平：投资方法叫抄作业

[01:02:39,288 --> 01:02:41,257]
段永平：你觉得抄作业这个东西

[01:02:41,257 --> 01:02:43,693]
段永平：它是不是一种可持续的投资的方法

[01:02:44,093 --> 01:02:44,760]
段永平：它很难

[01:02:45,027 --> 01:02:47,563]
段永平：因为你抄作业你是滞后的

[01:02:47,697 --> 01:02:48,064]
段永平：首先

[01:02:48,831 --> 01:02:50,266]
段永平：你抄老巴的作业

[01:02:50,700 --> 01:02:51,300]
方三文：还OK

[01:02:52,135 --> 01:02:54,003]
方三文：老巴的东西都是透明的嘛

[01:02:54,537 --> 01:02:55,671]
段永平：你抄我的怎么抄

[01:02:56,439 --> 01:02:58,941]
段永平：我又不公布我的持仓

[01:03:00,109 --> 01:03:02,545]
方三文：那我买得多买得少

[01:03:03,412 --> 01:03:04,647]
方三文：你根本就不知道啊

[01:03:04,647 --> 01:03:06,315]
方三文：你比重跟不上

[01:03:06,415 --> 01:03:08,017]
方三文：我可能就是买个东西

[01:03:08,017 --> 01:03:09,852]
段永平：我就逼自己多看一看

[01:03:10,319 --> 01:03:12,555]
方三文：你也跟着就一看

[01:03:12,555 --> 01:03:13,389]
方三文：啊 阿段也买了

[01:03:13,523 --> 01:03:15,825]
方三文：我就All In了

[01:03:15,825 --> 01:03:17,193]
段永平：你的All In不就错了嘛

[01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:18,628]
段永平：所以我觉得这个很难

[01:03:18,628 --> 01:03:20,396]
段永平：你不懂企业确实是很难

[01:03:20,429 --> 01:03:22,031]
段永平：我觉得不懂企业最好就是

[01:03:23,399 --> 01:03:24,066]
段永平：最好不要碰

[01:03:24,267 --> 01:03:25,234]
段永平：我非常保守

[01:03:25,434 --> 01:03:28,070]
段永平：A股我就只是买了茅台

[01:03:28,771 --> 01:03:29,505]
段永平：那么你就觉得

[01:03:30,306 --> 01:03:33,509]
段永平：买指数比抄作业要好

[01:03:33,709 --> 01:03:36,012]
段永平：我认为你要买

[01:03:36,245 --> 01:03:37,313]
段永平：不能说买指数

[01:03:37,313 --> 01:03:38,948]
段永平：因为指数有好多种

[01:03:39,582 --> 01:03:41,150]
段永平：不是所有的指数都可以买的

[01:03:41,250 --> 01:03:42,818]
段永平：老巴讲的指数指的

[01:03:43,019 --> 01:03:44,754]
段永平：其实就是标普500指数

[01:03:44,887 --> 01:03:46,856]
段永平：它并不是所有的指数

[01:03:47,056 --> 01:03:48,357]
段永平：指数可能有几千个

[01:03:48,491 --> 01:03:49,525]
方三文：或者纳斯达克100指数也可以

[01:03:49,892 --> 01:03:51,160]
方三文：那你在这点上

[01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:52,728]
段永平：你跟巴菲特的建议是一样的

[01:03:52,962 --> 01:03:53,996]
段永平：巴菲特他的建议

[01:03:53,996 --> 01:03:55,264]
段永平：也是买这种指数

[01:03:55,865 --> 01:03:58,134]
段永平：接下来有另外一个公司 英伟达

[01:03:58,134 --> 01:04:01,070]
段永平：一个用户叫 “迷人的打新小沙暴”

[01:04:01,070 --> 01:04:01,571]
段永平：他问

[01:04:01,737 --> 01:04:03,306]
段永平：就是什么原因

[01:04:03,773 --> 01:04:04,974]
段永平：或者什么样的思考

[01:04:05,174 --> 01:04:08,578]
段永平：让你去考虑投资英伟达这样的

[01:04:09,178 --> 01:04:09,979]
段永平：看起来是一个

[01:04:10,813 --> 01:04:12,715]
段永平：高度变化的行业中的一个企业

[01:04:12,915 --> 01:04:14,450]
段永平：我以前也以为它高度变化

[01:04:15,351 --> 01:04:15,985]
段永平：但是

[01:04:16,052 --> 01:04:17,920]
段永平：后来发现它们确实很厉害

[01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,256]
段永平：他们这个生态确实很强

[01:04:20,957 --> 01:04:25,494]
段永平：你看英伟达和这个OpenAI的合作

[01:04:25,661 --> 01:04:27,630]
段永平：以及AMD和OpenAI的合作

[01:04:27,663 --> 01:04:28,965]
段永平：你看看这个两个交易

[01:04:28,965 --> 01:04:30,700]
段永平：你可以看出来英伟达有多强

[01:04:31,567 --> 01:04:33,202]
段永平：英伟达是投资1000个亿

[01:04:33,469 --> 01:04:36,005]
段永平：但是是给它芯片 拿它的股份

[01:04:36,873 --> 01:04:39,041]
段永平：AMD是我给你芯片

[01:04:39,475 --> 01:04:41,377]
段永平：我给你股份求求你用用我

[01:04:41,644 --> 01:04:43,012]
段永平：你现在知道这个差别了吗

[01:04:43,312 --> 01:04:44,447]
段永平：那OpenAI当然

[01:04:45,381 --> 01:04:48,584]
段永平：现在所有的人都想用别的芯片

[01:04:49,252 --> 01:04:51,654]
段永平：是因为它们恐惧

[01:04:52,455 --> 01:04:53,489]
段永平：英伟达的垄断

[01:04:54,590 --> 01:04:55,191]
段永平：太贵了

[01:04:55,191 --> 01:04:56,525]
段永平：它们要花好多的钱

[01:04:56,525 --> 01:04:58,461]
段永平：因为它们之间是在军备竞赛

[01:04:58,661 --> 01:05:00,429]
段永平：所有的这些大厂

[01:05:01,063 --> 01:05:03,065]
段永平：AI你要赶上去

[01:05:03,299 --> 01:05:04,700]
段永平：你都得要去买它的芯片

[01:05:05,334 --> 01:05:05,501]
段永平：所以

[01:05:05,668 --> 01:05:07,203]
段永平：它们是非常的希望

[01:05:08,104 --> 01:05:09,138]
段永平：再拱出一家来

[01:05:09,138 --> 01:05:10,773]
段永平：这样它们可以有个价格

[01:05:10,773 --> 01:05:12,541]
段永平：因为半导体这个东西一旦同质化

[01:05:12,575 --> 01:05:13,909]
方三文：价格就一下就下来

[01:05:14,143 --> 01:05:15,444]
方三文：就没有办法做到这一点

[01:05:15,645 --> 01:05:16,846]
段永平：它不是一天两天了

[01:05:16,846 --> 01:05:18,948]
段永平：所以它们确实是厉害

[01:05:19,081 --> 01:05:19,448]
段永平：然后

[01:05:19,448 --> 01:05:20,383]
段永平：我也看了一下

[01:05:21,918 --> 01:05:23,819]
段永平：黄仁勋很多视频

[01:05:23,819 --> 01:05:25,187]
段永平：我觉得这个人我也很欣赏

[01:05:25,187 --> 01:05:27,523]
段永平：我觉得他其实十多年前讲的东西

[01:05:27,523 --> 01:05:28,791]
段永平：和今天讲的东西是一样的

[01:05:28,791 --> 01:05:30,259]
段永平：他其实早就看到了

[01:05:30,259 --> 01:05:31,861]
段永平：他一直在朝那个方向做

[01:05:32,028 --> 01:05:33,729]
段永平：所以你现在就不得不去想

[01:05:33,729 --> 01:05:34,931]
段永平：他现在讲的东西

[01:05:35,965 --> 01:05:37,967]
段永平：依然是他对未来的认同

[01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:39,268]
段永平：他还在这样做

[01:05:39,435 --> 01:05:40,002]
方三文：所以我觉得

[01:05:41,170 --> 01:05:41,871]
方三文：投一点是

[01:05:42,972 --> 01:05:43,539]
方三文：看看吧

[01:05:43,539 --> 01:05:43,806]
方三文：觉得

[01:05:44,173 --> 01:05:45,341]
方三文：AI这个东西我觉得

[01:05:46,175 --> 01:05:47,576]
方三文：至少掺和一下

[01:05:47,777 --> 01:05:48,477]
方三文：不要错过了

[01:05:48,978 --> 01:05:49,979]
方三文：完全错过了

[01:05:50,079 --> 01:05:52,315]
方三文：好像有点不太合适

[01:05:52,581 --> 01:05:53,115]
方三文：那么

[01:05:53,282 --> 01:05:54,517]
方三文：我理解你这个

[01:05:54,717 --> 01:05:56,385]
方三文：一 AI你认为它

[01:05:56,385 --> 01:05:58,521]
方三文：至少是一个有需求的东西

[01:05:58,654 --> 01:05:58,854]
段永平：那个

[01:05:59,755 --> 01:06:00,890]
段永平：我自己用AI

[01:06:00,890 --> 01:06:02,091]
段永平：我用了 我觉得

[01:06:02,658 --> 01:06:03,459]
段永平：太好用了

[01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:05,828]
段永平：就方便太多了

[01:06:05,861 --> 01:06:06,829]
段永平：然后你认为

[01:06:07,129 --> 01:06:08,631]
段永平：其实像英伟达这样的公司

[01:06:08,631 --> 01:06:09,632]
段永平：在这个行业里面

[01:06:09,865 --> 01:06:13,002]
段永平：它的竞争力是有一定的可持续性

[01:06:13,069 --> 01:06:14,203]
段永平：至少目前还是这么认为

[01:06:15,004 --> 01:06:16,072]
段永平：如果它是一个

[01:06:16,472 --> 01:06:17,773]
段永平：同质化的 没有持续性的

[01:06:17,773 --> 01:06:19,241]
段永平：你就不会考虑投资这个

[01:06:19,709 --> 01:06:20,142]
段永平：当然不会

[01:06:20,142 --> 01:06:22,378]
段永平：我以前是觉得半导体很难做的

[01:06:23,379 --> 01:06:24,180]
段永平：任何一个东西

[01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:26,782]
段永平：所以我不会在英特尔上面亏钱

[01:06:26,949 --> 01:06:28,217]
段永平：因为我没有碰过

[01:06:29,051 --> 01:06:30,786]
段永平：我以前也没有投过半导体

[01:06:30,786 --> 01:06:31,921]
段永平：这也是我

[01:06:32,455 --> 01:06:34,223]
段永平：我错过英伟达的一个很重要的原因

[01:06:34,223 --> 01:06:36,258]
段永平：其实我早就看到

[01:06:36,959 --> 01:06:37,660]
段永平：但是

[01:06:37,693 --> 01:06:38,527]
段永平：没有关注

[01:06:38,761 --> 01:06:40,696]
段永平：直到说这两年AI起来了以后

[01:06:41,330 --> 01:06:42,631]
段永平：以前是觉得就是偶尔的

[01:06:42,631 --> 01:06:44,133]
段永平：被炒起来的一个东西

[01:06:45,167 --> 01:06:46,969]
段永平：我现在觉得不像是炒起来

[01:06:47,303 --> 01:06:48,604]
段永平：仔细关注关注很有意思

[01:06:48,771 --> 01:06:51,073]
段永平：这家公司真的蛮有意思

[01:06:51,273 --> 01:06:52,341]
段永平：可能甚至对

[01:06:52,375 --> 01:06:54,510]
段永平：包括像台积电这样的

[01:06:54,910 --> 01:06:55,177]
段永平：企业

[01:06:55,177 --> 01:06:56,212]
段永平：你也有一些兴趣

[01:06:56,979 --> 01:06:57,947]
段永平：台积电呢

[01:06:58,247 --> 01:06:59,682]
段永平：这公司其实我早就知道

[01:07:01,617 --> 01:07:03,853]
段永平：因为我们原来拿芯片是从

[01:07:04,220 --> 01:07:05,087]
段永平：就是台联电

[01:07:06,021 --> 01:07:09,358]
段永平：因为台积电是不会直接供芯片的

[01:07:10,426 --> 01:07:11,327]
段永平：它是做代工的

[01:07:11,327 --> 01:07:12,862]
段永平：它只是帮人加工芯片

[01:07:13,696 --> 01:07:14,563]
段永平：那我很早

[01:07:14,930 --> 01:07:17,500]
段永平：30多年前我就跟台联电说

[01:07:18,234 --> 01:07:19,168]
段永平：我说你们做芯片

[01:07:19,168 --> 01:07:20,870]
方三文：你们是做不过台积电的

[01:07:21,437 --> 01:07:23,539]
方三文：因为它们是专注在做那个

[01:07:24,440 --> 01:07:27,376]
段永平：台联电那个时候又做代工

[01:07:27,543 --> 01:07:28,944]
段永平：又做自己的芯片

[01:07:29,045 --> 01:07:30,746]
段永平：又开发各种各样的产品

[01:07:31,047 --> 01:07:32,481]
段永平：我说你长期是做不过它们的

[01:07:33,149 --> 01:07:33,983]
段永平：这不幸而言中

[01:07:34,016 --> 01:07:37,153]
段永平：你看台积电和台联电

[01:07:37,153 --> 01:07:38,854]
段永平：你看这个天地之差

[01:07:38,921 --> 01:07:42,324]
段永平：当然它们后来把联发科分出来了

[01:07:43,426 --> 01:07:44,727]
段永平：但是台联电的代工

[01:07:44,927 --> 01:07:47,863]
段永平：你没有见它有什么特别厉害的地方

[01:07:47,863 --> 01:07:49,031]
段永平：现在都听不见了

[01:07:49,165 --> 01:07:50,232]
段永平：不知道它们在做什么

[01:07:50,232 --> 01:07:51,801]
段永平：所以我其实很早就知道它们

[01:07:52,835 --> 01:07:54,470]
段永平：只是说这个行当我不懂

[01:07:54,470 --> 01:07:55,771]
段永平：我觉得他们很重资产

[01:07:56,505 --> 01:07:57,673]
段永平：但是现在发现了

[01:07:57,740 --> 01:07:58,841]
段永平：就半导体啊

[01:07:58,941 --> 01:07:59,775]
段永平：这个AI啊

[01:07:59,842 --> 01:08:01,043]
段永平：这种起飞法

[01:08:01,777 --> 01:08:03,779]
段永平：好像谁都逃不过台积电

[01:08:04,847 --> 01:08:06,248]
段永平：它把所有人都干掉

[01:08:06,382 --> 01:08:07,583]
段永平：以前我们还要去找

[01:08:08,217 --> 01:08:08,918]
方三文：三星啊

[01:08:09,018 --> 01:08:10,953]
方三文：包括最早IBM也很厉害

[01:08:11,020 --> 01:08:12,655]
方三文：英特尔也做很多芯片的

[01:08:13,222 --> 01:08:15,357]
方三文：现在这些人一找代工都是去找

[01:08:16,025 --> 01:08:16,625]
方三文：台积电

[01:08:17,526 --> 01:08:18,227]
段永平：那我觉得

[01:08:18,527 --> 01:08:19,829]
方三文：这个还是有点意思

[01:08:19,829 --> 01:08:20,796]
段永平：所以我也买了一些

[01:08:20,796 --> 01:08:22,965]
段永平：但最近这个价格涨得太离谱了

[01:08:22,965 --> 01:08:23,365]
段永平：虽然

[01:08:24,633 --> 01:08:25,334]
段永平：离谱归离谱

[01:08:25,334 --> 01:08:28,204]
段永平：其实也没有说就那么贵

[01:08:29,205 --> 01:08:30,940]
段永平：如果未来的发展真的像

[01:08:32,141 --> 01:08:34,143]
段永平：黄仁勋讲的那个样子

[01:08:34,443 --> 01:08:36,679]
段永平：它现在的价格是有道理的

[01:08:37,246 --> 01:08:37,780]
段永平：但是我不知道

[01:08:38,047 --> 01:08:38,948]
方三文：也是因为这样

[01:08:38,948 --> 01:08:40,583]
方三文：其实你在这些

[01:08:41,016 --> 01:08:44,119]
段永平：在公司上的投入的力度是有限的

[01:08:44,353 --> 01:08:50,025]
段永平：没有到我敢像投苹果那样

[01:08:50,025 --> 01:08:51,427]
方三文：投苹果我投最高的时候

[01:08:51,427 --> 01:08:52,628]
方三文：我投到90几个点

[01:08:53,195 --> 01:08:55,197]
方三文：就是一直买一直买一直买

[01:08:55,197 --> 01:08:55,965]
段永平：每次掉我都买

[01:08:56,031 --> 01:08:58,767]
段永平：当然现在我也卖了一些

[01:08:59,068 --> 01:09:00,903]
段永平：因为我会卖点call（看涨期权）什么的

[01:09:00,903 --> 01:09:01,670]
段永平：它有时候就call走了

[01:09:01,670 --> 01:09:02,538]
段永平：一涨就call走

[01:09:02,538 --> 01:09:03,372]
段永平：call走就call走了

[01:09:03,672 --> 01:09:05,007]
段永平：我也可以买点别的

[01:09:05,674 --> 01:09:08,811]
段永平：那我们（从）英伟达和台积电

[01:09:08,811 --> 01:09:10,412]
段永平：这样的公司延伸出去

[01:09:10,646 --> 01:09:13,549]
段永平：我们讲技术进步 商业创新

[01:09:13,549 --> 01:09:15,050]
段永平：尤其是技术进步

[01:09:15,451 --> 01:09:17,453]
段永平：它会创造很多新的商业

[01:09:17,453 --> 01:09:19,388]
段永平：发掘新的需求

[01:09:19,555 --> 01:09:21,490]
段永平：然后它也会摧毁一些

[01:09:22,491 --> 01:09:23,592]
段永平：老的商业

[01:09:23,592 --> 01:09:23,926]
段永平：会

[01:09:23,926 --> 01:09:26,662]
段永平：那么通常创新对这个企业

[01:09:26,729 --> 01:09:28,531]
方三文：会有很高的需求

[01:09:28,797 --> 01:09:31,033]
方三文：甚至会有一些运气方面的需求

[01:09:31,700 --> 01:09:33,769]
段永平：他们说是创新成功的幸运者

[01:09:33,769 --> 01:09:35,538]
段永平：那么也有一些公司呢

[01:09:36,138 --> 01:09:42,444]
段永平：它处在不需要那么多创新的一个行业里面

[01:09:42,745 --> 01:09:44,613]
段永平：那么这两个相比

[01:09:45,314 --> 01:09:47,983]
段永平：你更倾向于哪一种的

[01:09:48,350 --> 01:09:49,685]
段永平：倾向于我能看懂

[01:09:50,586 --> 01:09:52,955]
段永平：倾向于我觉得它未来赚到的钱

[01:09:53,789 --> 01:09:56,592]
段永平：是匹配我的投资的机会成本

[01:09:56,792 --> 01:09:58,060]
段永平：所以你看我也买茅台

[01:09:58,360 --> 01:09:59,728]
段永平：茅台这个公司就是不要变

[01:09:59,929 --> 01:10:02,464]
段永平：就怕来个新的CEO

[01:10:02,464 --> 01:10:04,333]
段永平：他就东搞搞西搞搞

[01:10:04,333 --> 01:10:05,768]
段永平：到目前为止还好了

[01:10:06,368 --> 01:10:08,504]
段永平：他们再变也不敢

[01:10:09,204 --> 01:10:10,873]
段永平：万变不敢离其宗了

[01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:13,275]
段永平：你不要把53度飞天给变了

[01:10:13,275 --> 01:10:13,943]
段永平：这个就惨了

[01:10:13,943 --> 01:10:16,378]
段永平：所以国营企业在这点上是有好处的

[01:10:17,012 --> 01:10:19,448]
段永平：我听说像有些民营企业

[01:10:19,782 --> 01:10:22,284]
段永平：像什么老干妈

[01:10:23,986 --> 01:10:25,020]
段永平：我不知道是真是假

[01:10:25,154 --> 01:10:28,924]
段永平：我听网上说儿子上来就把配方给变了

[01:10:28,924 --> 01:10:31,894]
段永平：我说这种事在茅台可不敢有

[01:10:32,361 --> 01:10:33,395]
段永平：那个很危险

[01:10:33,662 --> 01:10:35,164]
段永平：你好好的为什么要变

[01:10:35,431 --> 01:10:37,566]
段永平：创新这个东西其实就是用户需求

[01:10:37,933 --> 01:10:39,168]
段永平：你需要变你就变

[01:10:39,168 --> 01:10:40,402]
段永平：不需要变就不要变

[01:10:40,402 --> 01:10:43,205]
段永平：那你像科技行业你必须得创新

[01:10:43,305 --> 01:10:45,507]
段永平：因为你新的东西会出来

[01:10:45,507 --> 01:10:47,209]
段永平：会满足更多的用户的需求

[01:10:47,209 --> 01:10:49,211]
段永平：你要不变你就死了

[01:10:50,045 --> 01:10:50,312]
段永平：铁死

[01:10:50,946 --> 01:10:55,017]
段永平：那茅台的口味这个东西已经形成了

[01:10:55,284 --> 01:10:57,386]
段永平：你再去改口味那就是脑袋坏了

[01:10:57,853 --> 01:10:59,188]
段永平：这肯定不应该这样

[01:10:59,888 --> 01:11:00,356]
段永平：但我不知道

[01:11:00,556 --> 01:11:03,792]
段永平：你想可口可乐它们也会改变一下口味

[01:11:03,792 --> 01:11:05,961]
段永平：但是它原来的口味是一定要保留的

[01:11:06,362 --> 01:11:07,496]
段永平：但它会逐步的去

[01:11:08,197 --> 01:11:09,298]
段永平：因为健康的原因

[01:11:09,365 --> 01:11:10,199]
段永平：因为这个原因

[01:11:10,332 --> 01:11:12,001]
段永平：因为那个原因加一些新的东西

[01:11:12,568 --> 01:11:14,303]
段永平：那从搞懂的角度

[01:11:15,371 --> 01:11:17,606]
段永平：这两种是不是要搞懂一家

[01:11:17,640 --> 01:11:20,009]
段永平：需要创新的企业会更难一些

[01:11:20,442 --> 01:11:22,544]
段永平：这不知道 那看他是谁

[01:11:22,911 --> 01:11:24,947]
段永平：这个其实搞懂茅台也不容易

[01:11:25,748 --> 01:11:28,217]
段永平：我就看每个人每个人不一样

[01:11:28,217 --> 01:11:30,719]
方三文：你看多少人搞不懂茅台

[01:11:30,719 --> 01:11:32,488]
方三文：也很多人搞不懂苹果

[01:11:33,656 --> 01:11:35,658]
方三文：我也搞不懂英伟达

[01:11:35,658 --> 01:11:37,192]
方三文：也没搞懂谷歌

[01:11:37,192 --> 01:11:38,193]
方三文：我要早搞懂谷歌

[01:11:38,193 --> 01:11:39,595]
方三文：其实我一直都很喜欢谷歌

[01:11:41,397 --> 01:11:42,765]
段永平：但是就是搞不懂

[01:11:44,266 --> 01:11:45,334]
段永平：我现在有点懂了

[01:11:45,467 --> 01:11:48,003]
段永平：但是 又开始担心了

[01:11:48,671 --> 01:11:50,973]
段永平：AI这个东西

[01:11:51,106 --> 01:11:53,075]
段永平：但它们AI本身也很厉害

[01:11:53,075 --> 01:11:55,477]
段永平：但是 就搜索的这个生意

[01:11:56,245 --> 01:11:57,846]
段永平：会有多大的程度被AI

[01:11:58,113 --> 01:12:02,251]
段永平：这种像ChatGPT 包括Gemini本身

[01:12:02,251 --> 01:12:05,854]
段永平：会取代多少搜索 我是不知道

[01:12:05,854 --> 01:12:08,190]
段永平：那么对谷歌我理解是这样

[01:12:08,324 --> 01:12:09,992]
段永平：你说你很喜欢这个公司

[01:12:09,992 --> 01:12:10,426]
段永平：对

[01:12:10,426 --> 01:12:13,429]
段永平：可能很喜欢的是它的文化

[01:12:13,429 --> 01:12:16,165]
段永平：对 它的生意模式以前是很强的

[01:12:16,165 --> 01:12:18,434]
段永平：但是你说你搞不懂的

[01:12:18,500 --> 01:12:19,902]
段永平：那个环节在什么地方

[01:12:19,902 --> 01:12:21,136]
段永平：就是我刚刚讲过的呀

[01:12:21,136 --> 01:12:21,770]
段永平：它的变化

[01:12:21,870 --> 01:12:22,938]
段永平：它的这个变化

[01:12:23,138 --> 01:12:26,308]
段永平：AI这个变化

[01:12:26,308 --> 01:12:28,177]
段永平：会到底对它产生多少多大的影响

[01:12:28,177 --> 01:12:28,877]
段永平：我现在是不知道

[01:12:29,178 --> 01:12:29,845]
段永平：虽然我不知道

[01:12:30,312 --> 01:12:31,413]
段永平：但是我总的来讲

[01:12:31,413 --> 01:12:33,549]
段永平：我觉得这家公司还是挺好的

[01:12:33,749 --> 01:12:36,218]
段永平：所以我前段时间还买了一些

[01:12:36,351 --> 01:12:39,188]
段永平：你要搞懂不变的东西

[01:12:39,221 --> 01:12:40,255]
段永平：或者搞懂创新的东西

[01:12:40,255 --> 01:12:41,256]
段永平：其实都挺难

[01:12:41,457 --> 01:12:43,058]
段永平：当然 搞懂啥都难

[01:12:44,059 --> 01:12:45,594]
段永平：但是再难也没有高尔夫难

[01:12:46,228 --> 01:12:47,129]
段永平：我们再说一个

[01:12:47,396 --> 01:12:48,564]
段永平：特斯拉这个公司

[01:12:49,531 --> 01:12:51,467]
段永平：你这些年对它的看法

[01:12:52,134 --> 01:12:53,202]
段永平：是不是也有些变化

[01:12:53,502 --> 01:12:55,104]
段永平：没有什么本质的变化

[01:12:55,304 --> 01:12:55,904]
方三文：但是

[01:12:58,107 --> 01:13:00,342]
方三文：确实觉得埃隆·马斯克这个人是厉害

[01:13:00,442 --> 01:13:01,477]
段永平：他有很多想法

[01:13:01,477 --> 01:13:03,212]
段永平：也确实是很先进的

[01:13:03,545 --> 01:13:04,913]
段永平：但是 投资呢

[01:13:05,314 --> 01:13:06,315]
段永平：我觉得我比较难

[01:13:08,517 --> 01:13:09,385]
段永平：个人的角度来讲

[01:13:09,418 --> 01:13:11,653]
段永平：我不说很喜欢这个人的品行

[01:13:12,187 --> 01:13:14,056]
段永平：你投资实际上你在跟着他做朋友

[01:13:14,523 --> 01:13:16,425]
段永平：我不想跟他做朋友

[01:13:17,426 --> 01:13:18,694]
段永平：哪怕给我钱我也不干

[01:13:19,328 --> 01:13:21,663]
段永平：所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情

[01:13:22,097 --> 01:13:24,566]
段永平：但是 我认识到他确实是厉害

[01:13:24,566 --> 01:13:25,768]
段永平：而且他的东西

[01:13:25,934 --> 01:13:27,169]
段永平：有很多东西很有道理

[01:13:28,570 --> 01:13:29,671]
段永平：有些东西很没道理

[01:13:29,671 --> 01:13:31,306]
段永平：你不知道他哪一条先出来

[01:13:31,306 --> 01:13:33,075]
段永平：那这个主要是关于这个人

[01:13:33,675 --> 01:13:34,610]
段永平：他的生意呢

[01:13:35,043 --> 01:13:35,377]
段永平：觉得怎么样

[01:13:36,011 --> 01:13:38,046]
段永平：电动车这个生意不会太好

[01:13:38,614 --> 01:13:39,114]
段永平：会很累

[01:13:39,515 --> 01:13:40,482]
段永平：它差异化很小

[01:13:40,682 --> 01:13:41,049]
段永平：但是

[01:13:41,116 --> 01:13:41,950]
方三文：特斯拉的电动车

[01:13:41,950 --> 01:13:43,352]
段永平：它是做出差异化的

[01:13:43,552 --> 01:13:44,820]
段永平：大部分电动车的生意呢

[01:13:44,887 --> 01:13:47,022]
段永平：我觉得是会很艰苦

[01:13:47,022 --> 01:13:50,292]
段永平：那特斯拉总体来讲

[01:13:50,659 --> 01:13:51,693]
段永平：它确实是做得好

[01:13:51,693 --> 01:13:53,328]
段永平：你看它款式也少

[01:13:54,163 --> 01:13:55,397]
段永平：这东西也很单一

[01:13:55,597 --> 01:13:56,431]
段永平：量又很大

[01:13:56,732 --> 01:13:57,666]
段永平：那它相对来讲

[01:13:57,666 --> 01:13:58,434]
段永平：成本就会低

[01:13:58,467 --> 01:13:59,935]
段永平：它是很可能有钱赚

[01:14:00,235 --> 01:14:01,303]
方三文：这就是我很早我就

[01:14:01,670 --> 01:14:02,204]
方三文：你想

[01:14:02,638 --> 01:14:04,473]
方三文：我在博客上是写过特斯拉

[01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:06,141]
段永平：我最早是很喜欢特斯拉

[01:14:06,408 --> 01:14:08,577]
段永平：你看我的车牌都是“我们爱特斯拉”

[01:14:09,211 --> 01:14:10,879]
段永平：后来就看马斯克那些事

[01:14:10,879 --> 01:14:11,547]
段永平：我就觉得

[01:14:11,547 --> 01:14:12,714]
段永平：有点不太喜欢这个人

[01:14:12,815 --> 01:14:13,215]
段永平：加上我

[01:14:13,682 --> 01:14:15,083]
段永平：我买了他们车以后

[01:14:15,083 --> 01:14:16,452]
段永平：看它们的服务各方面

[01:14:16,785 --> 01:14:18,453]
段永平：好多我没那么满意的东西

[01:14:19,655 --> 01:14:20,956]
段永平：这又把股票也卖了

[01:14:21,156 --> 01:14:22,491]
段永平：当然这是个错误的决策

[01:14:22,491 --> 01:14:24,560]
段永平：我可能应该留着

[01:14:24,960 --> 01:14:26,028]
段永平：但是我觉得很难

[01:14:26,361 --> 01:14:26,929]
段永平：确实很难

[01:14:26,929 --> 01:14:28,730]
段永平：我真的没有那么喜欢这个人

[01:14:28,997 --> 01:14:29,731]
段永平：但是

[01:14:29,865 --> 01:14:30,532]
段永平：我尊重他

[01:14:30,766 --> 01:14:32,234]
段永平：我觉得他确实有很多东西

[01:14:32,234 --> 01:14:33,569]
段永平：是做得很了不起

[01:14:34,036 --> 01:14:37,105]
段永平：尤其是你看他这个SpaceX

[01:14:37,706 --> 01:14:39,508]
段永平：那个太牛了

[01:14:39,708 --> 01:14:40,509]
段永平：非常厉害

[01:14:40,509 --> 01:14:42,444]
段永平：而且星链也很厉害

[01:14:42,444 --> 01:14:44,546]
段永平：电动车我不知道

[01:14:44,546 --> 01:14:46,248]
段永平：我觉得就那么回事吧

[01:14:46,248 --> 01:14:47,749]
段永平：我不是很喜欢特斯拉车

[01:14:48,550 --> 01:14:50,285]
段永平：但是我喜欢它的星链

[01:14:50,285 --> 01:14:51,053]
段永平：我是它的客户

[01:14:52,287 --> 01:14:53,355]
段永平：然后你看SpaceX

[01:14:53,388 --> 01:14:55,190]
段永平：我觉得确实也是厉害的

[01:14:55,190 --> 01:14:55,691]
段永平：你看到那个

[01:14:56,525 --> 01:14:58,026]
段永平：能够把那么大一个东西

[01:14:58,026 --> 01:14:59,328]
段永平：就让它降下来

[01:15:00,062 --> 01:15:01,864]
段永平：我觉得太牛了

[01:15:02,998 --> 01:15:03,765]
段永平：这是个牛人

[01:15:03,765 --> 01:15:04,433]
段永平：毫无疑问

[01:15:05,200 --> 01:15:06,768]
段永平：肯定比我牛太多了

[01:15:06,768 --> 01:15:08,237]
段永平：但不意味着我一定要喜欢他

[01:15:08,403 --> 01:15:11,406]
段永平：我们还是回到那个老巴说

[01:15:11,406 --> 01:15:13,742]
段永平：不要投资四个轮子的生意

[01:15:13,742 --> 01:15:15,444]
段永平：你觉得电动车这个东西

[01:15:15,644 --> 01:15:20,415]
段永平：或者以及现在大家搞的智能驾驶

[01:15:20,415 --> 01:15:21,183]
段永平：这个东西

[01:15:21,183 --> 01:15:22,918]
段永平：它会改变四个轮子

[01:15:22,918 --> 01:15:24,019]
方三文：这个生意的本质吗

[01:15:24,286 --> 01:15:25,387]
方三文：很难

[01:15:25,721 --> 01:15:27,322]
方三文：因为车本身

[01:15:27,322 --> 01:15:28,123]
方三文：电动车

[01:15:28,123 --> 01:15:29,658]
方三文：它比汽油车要简单

[01:15:30,492 --> 01:15:31,760]
方三文：就是一个电机

[01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:33,529]
方三文：然后你什么形状

[01:15:33,529 --> 01:15:34,463]
方三文：其实它都可以做

[01:15:35,030 --> 01:15:36,064]
方三文：那么最后

[01:15:36,064 --> 01:15:36,865]
段永平：那么最后

[01:15:37,332 --> 01:15:38,433]
段永平：势必慢慢慢慢

[01:15:38,734 --> 01:15:39,268]
段永平：大家就是

[01:15:39,668 --> 01:15:41,003]
段永平：价格竞争会越来越多

[01:15:41,637 --> 01:15:42,905]
段永平：当然如果你真的打得

[01:15:42,905 --> 01:15:44,573]
段永平：就剩一个两个牌子的时候

[01:15:44,573 --> 01:15:45,641]
段永平：它们可能达成默契

[01:15:45,641 --> 01:15:46,909]
段永平：它们还是有钱赚的

[01:15:47,075 --> 01:15:49,278]
段永平：智能驾驶这个东西

[01:15:49,278 --> 01:15:50,779]
段永平：如果每个人都自己搞

[01:15:52,214 --> 01:15:53,115]
段永平：其实也很累

[01:15:53,282 --> 01:15:53,615]
段永平：我不知道

[01:15:53,982 --> 01:15:55,317]
段永平：我不在这个行当里头

[01:15:55,450 --> 01:15:56,218]
段永平：我是觉得

[01:15:56,919 --> 01:15:57,753]
段永平：也可能将来

[01:15:57,786 --> 01:15:59,121]
段永平：大家都用谷歌的方案

[01:15:59,154 --> 01:16:02,057]
段永平：或者是用某几家的方案

[01:16:02,057 --> 01:16:03,892]
段永平：那最后大家也是同质化的

[01:16:03,892 --> 01:16:05,294]
段永平：就是大家的东西也都差不多

[01:16:05,560 --> 01:16:06,962]
段永平：最后大家就赚个平均利润呗

[01:16:07,362 --> 01:16:08,864]
段永平：就是说你不是说就没有钱赚

[01:16:08,864 --> 01:16:10,699]
段永平：但是你要赚到很好的利润

[01:16:10,699 --> 01:16:12,100]
段永平：因为它没有很好的差异化

[01:16:12,100 --> 01:16:13,702]
段永平：所以它也很难有很好的利润

[01:16:14,536 --> 01:16:16,338]
段永平：但是如果大家要是卷的话

[01:16:16,672 --> 01:16:18,540]
段永平：那卷到什么程度就不知道

[01:16:19,341 --> 01:16:20,909]
段永平：那个一定是要卷完了

[01:16:21,043 --> 01:16:23,178]
段永平：才会有剩下的人能够赚钱

[01:16:24,112 --> 01:16:25,881]
段永平：现在我不知道有多少家

[01:16:25,914 --> 01:16:26,815]
段永平：在做电动车

[01:16:26,949 --> 01:16:28,517]
段永平：就像我们当年做游戏机一样

[01:16:28,517 --> 01:16:29,418]
段永平：可能有几百家

[01:16:29,418 --> 01:16:31,153]
段永平：你卷到最后就剩几家

[01:16:31,153 --> 01:16:32,421]
段永平：那几家是赚钱的

[01:16:33,055 --> 01:16:34,756]
段永平：但这几百家都是要倒的

[01:16:34,756 --> 01:16:36,224]
段永平：所以你现在看到的电动车

[01:16:36,325 --> 01:16:38,026]
段永平：大部分都会死掉

[01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:39,795]
方三文：这个我可以肯定

[01:16:40,395 --> 01:16:41,563]
方三文：谁会活下来我不知道

[01:16:41,830 --> 01:16:43,699]
段永平：那你总体上倾向于

[01:16:43,732 --> 01:16:45,200]
段永平：无论是电动还是智能化

[01:16:45,200 --> 01:16:47,803]
段永平：它并没有改变这个行业的根本的特征

[01:16:48,270 --> 01:16:49,004]
段永平：它就变成了

[01:16:49,638 --> 01:16:51,807]
段永平：它把汽油车改了

[01:16:53,342 --> 01:16:54,209]
段永平：可能有一天

[01:16:54,309 --> 01:16:55,210]
段永平：但我不知道啊

[01:16:56,044 --> 01:16:58,914]
段永平：电动车是不是真的能够节能

[01:16:59,081 --> 01:17:00,782]
段永平：能够环保

[01:17:01,350 --> 01:17:03,085]
段永平：我其实一直都没有搞清楚这件事情

[01:17:03,085 --> 01:17:04,052]
段永平：因为你从宏观

[01:17:04,052 --> 01:17:05,320]
段永平：从长远的角度来讲

[01:17:05,821 --> 01:17:09,925]
段永平：电池本身是一个不太环保的东西

[01:17:09,925 --> 01:17:11,193]
段永平：所以我不是很清楚

[01:17:11,193 --> 01:17:15,297]
段永平：你生产电的过程就很难讲了

[01:17:15,664 --> 01:17:17,899]
段永平：当然你要太阳能真的使用的很好

[01:17:18,634 --> 01:17:20,235]
方三文：那可能电动车就真的是

[01:17:20,602 --> 01:17:21,570]
段永平：会变得特别有益

[01:17:21,970 --> 01:17:24,439]
段永平：如果将来真的人类实现了核聚变发电

[01:17:25,040 --> 01:17:26,475]
段永平：那确实它是有意义的

[01:17:26,475 --> 01:17:29,111]
段永平：但是我没有很深入的研究过

[01:17:29,111 --> 01:17:30,112]
段永平：但如果真是那样

[01:17:30,112 --> 01:17:31,380]
段永平：那汽油车就活不下去

[01:17:32,547 --> 01:17:33,749]
段永平：汽油车就很难了

[01:17:33,749 --> 01:17:35,217]
段永平：但是电动车之间

[01:17:35,450 --> 01:17:37,085]
段永平：它们会依然继续卷下去

[01:17:38,453 --> 01:17:40,455]
段永平：它们的差异化是比汽油车要小的

[01:17:40,455 --> 01:17:42,958]
段永平：就是无法改变这个行业的竞争

[01:17:43,358 --> 01:17:44,626]
段永平：强竞争的特征

[01:17:45,394 --> 01:17:48,897]
段永平：但汽车行业的竞争没有比方说

[01:17:48,897 --> 01:17:51,800]
段永平：太阳能硅片的竞争那么强烈

[01:17:52,100 --> 01:17:53,935]
段永平：也没有航空公司的竞争那么强烈

[01:17:53,935 --> 01:17:55,404]
段永平：因为航空公司就是A到B嘛

[01:17:55,904 --> 01:17:57,105]
段永平：你是出100块

[01:17:57,305 --> 01:18:00,475]
段永平：那我就也顶多就卖100块

[01:18:00,876 --> 01:18:01,877]
段永平：它没有什么差异化

[01:18:02,144 --> 01:18:03,345]
段永平：最后就是靠航线

[01:18:03,779 --> 01:18:04,513]
方三文：航线垄断

[01:18:05,113 --> 01:18:05,847]
方三文：那航线呢

[01:18:05,847 --> 01:18:08,850]
段永平：你没有办法真的垄断一个航线的

[01:18:09,184 --> 01:18:11,686]
段永平：因为政府总是会多给两条航线

[01:18:11,686 --> 01:18:12,988]
段永平：让你们来竞争

[01:18:13,555 --> 01:18:14,489]
段永平：汽车也是一样的

[01:18:14,890 --> 01:18:16,825]
段永平：那现在像特斯拉这样的公司

[01:18:16,825 --> 01:18:19,895]
段永平：它现在花了很多的精力去做这个

[01:18:20,195 --> 01:18:21,163]
段永平：另外一项业务

[01:18:21,163 --> 01:18:22,197]
段永平：就是人形机器人

[01:18:22,664 --> 01:18:25,000]
段永平：你觉得这个东西是有商业价值的吗

[01:18:25,634 --> 01:18:25,934]
段永平：我不知道

[01:18:26,334 --> 01:18:27,069]
方三文：它要做出来

[01:18:27,069 --> 01:18:27,869]
方三文：当然他说的

[01:18:28,236 --> 01:18:29,704]
方三文：那你家里配几个机器人

[01:18:29,704 --> 01:18:31,707]
方三文：连保姆都不用请了

[01:18:31,707 --> 01:18:32,674]
方三文：那当然好对不对

[01:18:33,308 --> 01:18:34,976]
段永平：还可以提供情绪价值

[01:18:34,976 --> 01:18:35,677]
段永平：多好啊

[01:18:35,811 --> 01:18:36,511]
段永平：能不能做到

[01:18:37,279 --> 01:18:39,748]
段永平：有人就觉得肯定可以 所以就去赌

[01:18:40,048 --> 01:18:40,882]
段永平：我一般不会

[01:18:40,882 --> 01:18:42,784]
段永平：我就觉得除非我真的看懂了

[01:18:42,784 --> 01:18:43,719]
段永平：真的能做到

[01:18:43,985 --> 01:18:46,521]
段永平：我不是太理解为什么要有人形机器人

[01:18:47,422 --> 01:18:49,124]
段永平：因为机器人是不需要人形的

[01:18:49,491 --> 01:18:50,592]
段永平：是不是人形并不重要

[01:18:50,759 --> 01:18:51,827]
方三文：你这个炒菜机器人

[01:18:51,827 --> 01:18:53,328]
方三文：你为什么要长得像个保姆呢

[01:18:53,328 --> 01:18:55,363]
方三文：当然它如果是能够做到

[01:18:55,730 --> 01:18:57,999]
方三文：又没有什么代价

[01:18:58,567 --> 01:19:01,303]
段永平：那也许是有道理的

[01:19:02,337 --> 01:19:03,572]
段永平：因为人有人的好处

[01:19:03,572 --> 01:19:06,208]
段永平：它两条腿走路它灵活很多

[01:19:06,208 --> 01:19:07,542]
段永平：你要是四个轮子的话呢

[01:19:07,843 --> 01:19:09,111]
段永平：有很多地方你可能去不了

[01:19:09,711 --> 01:19:11,346]
段永平：那两个腿你可以上楼梯下楼梯

[01:19:11,446 --> 01:19:13,281]
段永平：就有好多因素可以导致

[01:19:13,281 --> 01:19:16,451]
方三文：那所谓的两个腿的这个东西是有道理

[01:19:16,451 --> 01:19:19,221]
方三文：但是你是不是要有头我就不知道了

[01:19:19,454 --> 01:19:21,823]
方三文：因为我想像当中是没有必要

[01:19:22,157 --> 01:19:24,092]
段永平：你可以有四肢你可以有八肢

[01:19:24,659 --> 01:19:25,961]
段永平：你好多个手都可以

[01:19:26,027 --> 01:19:26,728]
段永平：还可以飞起来

[01:19:26,728 --> 01:19:27,129]
段永平：对

[01:19:27,129 --> 01:19:30,432]
段永平：飞起来那个就复杂一些

[01:19:30,532 --> 01:19:32,601]
段永平：我觉得飞起来可能性不大

[01:19:33,869 --> 01:19:35,270]
段永平：因为你家里就那么点大

[01:19:35,604 --> 01:19:37,272]
段永平：你怎么托起那些重量

[01:19:38,306 --> 01:19:39,207]
段永平：户外是可以的

[01:19:39,975 --> 01:19:42,511]
段永平：那我再说一个最老的公司

[01:19:42,511 --> 01:19:43,311]
段永平：伯克希尔

[01:19:45,046 --> 01:19:46,314]
段永平：老巴刚刚退休

[01:19:46,648 --> 01:19:49,117]
段永平：它过去算是基业长青的公司了

[01:19:49,651 --> 01:19:51,753]
方三文：那么现在也有很多持有它的股票的人

[01:19:53,822 --> 01:19:54,823]
段永平：这是有疑问的

[01:19:54,923 --> 01:19:56,525]
方三文：比如说这个人

[01:19:57,325 --> 01:19:58,927]
方三文：“江畔初月初照人”他说

[01:20:00,896 --> 01:20:01,463]
方三文：伯克希尔

[01:20:01,463 --> 01:20:02,464]
方三文：就是他退休了

[01:20:02,864 --> 01:20:05,500]
方三文：他这个公司能不能基业长青

[01:20:05,834 --> 01:20:08,336]
方三文：那他可能对这家公司完全不了解吧

[01:20:08,403 --> 01:20:09,237]
方三文：怎么会有这样的问题

[01:20:10,806 --> 01:20:12,474]
方三文：老巴买的这些公司都在

[01:20:13,441 --> 01:20:13,909]
段永平：第二

[01:20:13,909 --> 01:20:16,878]
段永平：他接班人他的文化是承接的

[01:20:17,279 --> 01:20:20,815]
段永平：他们都是在努力的找现金流好

[01:20:20,882 --> 01:20:22,217]
段永平：未来现金流好的公司

[01:20:22,350 --> 01:20:23,585]
段永平：这一点是不会变的

[01:20:24,186 --> 01:20:26,788]
段永平：那么至于说这个人的水平怎么样

[01:20:26,788 --> 01:20:28,190]
段永平：那老巴有犯错误的时候

[01:20:28,557 --> 01:20:32,160]
段永平：那老巴找的人也不会说差到哪里去

[01:20:32,561 --> 01:20:34,229]
段永平：那它这个文化是不会变的

[01:20:34,229 --> 01:20:35,864]
段永平：它们不会是一家投机的公司

[01:20:35,864 --> 01:20:37,766]
段永平：你拿着伯克希尔哈撒韦

[01:20:37,899 --> 01:20:41,336]
段永平：你肯定比随便买一个共同基金要好

[01:20:43,004 --> 01:20:45,273]
段永平：比从你网上买的基金肯定是要好很多

[01:20:45,841 --> 01:20:47,475]
方三文：那你有什么好选的呢

[01:20:47,742 --> 01:20:48,777]
方三文：你如果不懂投资

[01:20:48,777 --> 01:20:50,679]
段永平：那就应该买像伯克希尔哈撒韦

[01:20:50,679 --> 01:20:51,947]
段永平：或者像标普500指数这样

[01:20:52,714 --> 01:20:53,782]
段永平：那一定是比买（基金）好

[01:20:53,882 --> 01:20:55,250]
段永平：这些你知道它们是谁

[01:20:55,617 --> 01:20:56,851]
段永平：你知道它们的历史

[01:20:57,152 --> 01:20:57,652]
段永平：对不对

[01:20:58,186 --> 01:21:01,356]
段永平：我觉得你买这个可能比什么黑石

[01:21:01,356 --> 01:21:02,958]
段永平：比这些东西要好

[01:21:04,392 --> 01:21:05,327]
段永平：我觉得长期来讲

[01:21:05,327 --> 01:21:06,995]
段永平：它的回报很可能是比它更高

[01:21:07,362 --> 01:21:11,466]
段永平：如果这样子说你觉得他的公司能持续的

[01:21:11,466 --> 01:21:13,868]
段永平：维持之前的优势的概率是大的

[01:21:14,703 --> 01:21:16,371]
方三文：我觉得他们的方式

[01:21:16,805 --> 01:21:17,973]
方三文：他们的方式方法

[01:21:18,173 --> 01:21:21,309]
方三文：他们的思维方式是成立的

[01:21:21,610 --> 01:21:23,745]
方三文：至于说他们能不能够跑赢标普500指数

[01:21:23,979 --> 01:21:24,479]
方三文：不知道

[01:21:24,479 --> 01:21:27,449]
段永平：老巴我也专门跟他聊过这个事

[01:21:27,449 --> 01:21:30,352]
段永平：你觉得你未来还可以跑赢标普500指数吗

[01:21:30,352 --> 01:21:32,020]
段永平：他说非常难

[01:21:32,787 --> 01:21:33,755]
段永平：但是他觉得呢

[01:21:33,788 --> 01:21:35,457]
段永平：可能可以跑赢一点点

[01:21:36,291 --> 01:21:38,093]
段永平：他就是喜欢做这件事

[01:21:38,360 --> 01:21:39,394]
段永平：不然他就买标普500指数

[01:21:39,394 --> 01:21:40,629]
方三文：他就彻底不管了就完了

[01:21:41,329 --> 01:21:43,632]
方三文：所以他们的机会成本就是标普500指数

[01:21:43,632 --> 01:21:45,000]
方三文：所以他们只有在

[01:21:45,000 --> 01:21:46,935]
方三文：他们觉得可以跑赢标普500指数的时候

[01:21:46,935 --> 01:21:47,836]
方三文：他们才会出手

[01:21:48,103 --> 01:21:49,137]
段永平：不然他就不干了

[01:21:49,638 --> 01:21:51,172]
段永平：不然他就买标普500指数就好了

[01:21:51,806 --> 01:21:53,208]
段永平：就可简单的一件事

[01:21:54,909 --> 01:21:56,478]
段永平：我都是这样想的

[01:21:56,478 --> 01:21:57,812]
段永平：你要哪天我真的决定

[01:21:57,879 --> 01:22:00,048]
段永平：我也不打算做投资了

[01:22:00,048 --> 01:22:01,850]
段永平：或者说我传给小孩的时候

[01:22:01,850 --> 01:22:05,420]
段永平：发现我某个孩子是不懂投资的

[01:22:05,420 --> 01:22:06,755]
段永平：你也没办法搞懂

[01:22:07,889 --> 01:22:08,290]
段永平：不懂的人

[01:22:08,390 --> 01:22:09,958]
段永平：你有时候你是没办法的

[01:22:10,458 --> 01:22:11,726]
段永平：你就给他买标普500指数就好

[01:22:12,594 --> 01:22:14,095]
段永平：或者是买伯克希尔哈撒韦

[01:22:14,629 --> 01:22:16,131]
段永平：结果我有个朋友过世了

[01:22:16,131 --> 01:22:17,098]
段永平：他的孩子就跟我讲

[01:22:17,265 --> 01:22:19,501]
段永平：他就是买了一半的标普500指数

[01:22:19,501 --> 01:22:21,036]
段永平：买了一半的伯克希尔哈撒韦

[01:22:21,202 --> 01:22:21,736]
段永平：这就对了

[01:22:22,070 --> 01:22:22,804]
段永平：这安排挺好的

[01:22:22,971 --> 01:22:23,338]
段永平：对

[01:22:23,638 --> 01:22:25,507]
段永平：然后他们就不操心了

[01:22:26,007 --> 01:22:27,442]
段永平：他们也不管你市场

[01:22:27,976 --> 01:22:28,677]
段永平：怎么怎么样

[01:22:29,177 --> 01:22:31,379]
段永平：反正他们就过自己的小日子就好了

[01:22:31,880 --> 01:22:33,048]
段永平：因为标普500指数有分红

[01:22:33,481 --> 01:22:35,550]
段永平：那一半的股票的分红

[01:22:35,550 --> 01:22:36,952]
段永平：那足够他们花了

[01:22:38,153 --> 01:22:39,654]
段永平：那伯克希尔哈撒韦就拿着呗

[01:22:39,954 --> 01:22:41,089]
段永平：这样他会省好多心

[01:22:41,289 --> 01:22:44,359]
段永平：那再问一个大家更关心的公司

[01:22:44,492 --> 01:22:45,527]
段永平：就是拼多多

[01:22:45,527 --> 01:22:48,697]
段永平：你之前说对它是有风险投资的

[01:22:48,930 --> 01:22:51,333]
段永平：那么最新其实你也是有增仓的

[01:22:51,333 --> 01:22:52,967]
段永平：那现在还是个风险投资吗

[01:22:53,401 --> 01:22:53,568]
段永平：还是

[01:22:54,169 --> 01:22:55,537]
段永平：还是 但是好一点

[01:22:55,537 --> 01:22:56,438]
段永平：我懂得多一点

[01:22:56,504 --> 01:22:56,971]
段永平：所以我

[01:22:57,639 --> 01:23:01,076]
段永平：我其实曾经卖掉过很大的部位

[01:23:01,076 --> 01:23:04,312]
段永平：我又差不多又都买回来了

[01:23:04,312 --> 01:23:07,949]
段永平：我觉得这公司还是有点意思

[01:23:07,949 --> 01:23:09,617]
段永平：但是是有风险的

[01:23:09,617 --> 01:23:10,719]
段永平：我不推荐别人买

[01:23:10,752 --> 01:23:13,455]
段永平：你说你又买回来

[01:23:13,488 --> 01:23:14,723]
段永平：你觉得更懂了一点

[01:23:14,889 --> 01:23:16,524]
段永平：你觉得懂了是什么部分

[01:23:16,524 --> 01:23:18,326]
段永平：人家赚的钱摆在那儿了

[01:23:18,326 --> 01:23:20,328]
段永平：你看财报你都能看见了

[01:23:21,129 --> 01:23:22,964]
段永平：它现在其实

[01:23:22,964 --> 01:23:25,033]
段永平：如果它能够维持这个生意

[01:23:25,700 --> 01:23:26,735]
段永平：它是很便宜的

[01:23:26,735 --> 01:23:27,635]
段永平：问题是我不知道

[01:23:28,336 --> 01:23:29,871]
方三文：它是不是真的能够维持

[01:23:30,038 --> 01:23:32,107]
段永平：有什么样的东西会影响到它

[01:23:32,107 --> 01:23:32,741]
段永平：但是

[01:23:33,475 --> 01:23:36,845]
段永平：我对他们整个文化整个团队

[01:23:36,845 --> 01:23:38,046]
段永平：我是信任的

[01:23:38,046 --> 01:23:39,347]
段永平：但是大环境我不知道

[01:23:39,647 --> 01:23:41,016]
段永平：一个用户叫“张浩_”他问

[01:23:41,316 --> 01:23:43,818]
段永平：比如说5到10年之后的拼多多

[01:23:44,119 --> 01:23:46,488]
段永平：你现在是没有办法建立一个清晰的预期

[01:23:46,855 --> 01:23:49,991]
段永平：我觉得大概率他们应该活得还不错

[01:23:50,825 --> 01:23:52,060]
方三文：但是不是百分之一百

[01:23:53,461 --> 01:23:54,462]
方三文：我觉得苹果

[01:23:54,462 --> 01:23:55,163]
方三文：我可以说

[01:23:55,764 --> 01:23:58,566]
方三文：我很肯定的知道苹果还会活得很好

[01:23:58,700 --> 01:24:00,568]
方三文：拼多多呢 我没有那么清晰

[01:24:00,602 --> 01:24:00,902]
段永平：我觉得

[01:24:02,337 --> 01:24:05,106]
段永平：这个行当的变化其实也很大

[01:24:05,340 --> 01:24:07,075]
段永平：但是它存在一种可能性

[01:24:07,142 --> 01:24:09,043]
段永平：就是它会比现在还要厉害很多

[01:24:09,177 --> 01:24:10,311]
段永平：那风投就是这个意思

[01:24:10,845 --> 01:24:11,312]
段永平：对不对

[01:24:12,147 --> 01:24:12,781]
段永平：那不是风投

[01:24:12,914 --> 01:24:15,250]
段永平：我就应该买很大的比重在里头

[01:24:15,550 --> 01:24:15,984]
段永平：我并没有

[01:24:16,051 --> 01:24:18,052]
段永平：只能用不是那么多的仓位

[01:24:18,052 --> 01:24:19,254]
段永平：去投资这个公司

[01:24:19,254 --> 01:24:22,257]
段永平：但是我觉得是值得拥有一部分

[01:24:22,390 --> 01:24:23,925]
段永平：你对团队的认可

[01:24:24,125 --> 01:24:27,429]
段永平：其实是增加了一定程度的

[01:24:27,429 --> 01:24:29,230]
段永平：你投资它的确定性

[01:24:29,898 --> 01:24:32,167]
段永平：你的这个中国公司里面

[01:24:32,167 --> 01:24:34,335]
段永平：比较大的持仓的茅台这个公司

[01:24:34,335 --> 01:24:36,004]
段永平：你经常说

[01:24:36,704 --> 01:24:38,506]
段永平：白酒分两种 茅台和其他

[01:24:39,074 --> 01:24:39,841]
段永平：那你能说一说

[01:24:39,941 --> 01:24:41,876]
段永平：茅台和其他的区别是什么

[01:24:42,177 --> 01:24:44,879]
段永平：跟不喝酒的人说茅台不是好怪吗

[01:24:44,879 --> 01:24:45,980]
段永平：就是喜欢的人

[01:24:46,281 --> 01:24:47,215]
段永平：他喜欢茅台

[01:24:47,215 --> 01:24:48,283]
段永平：他喜欢那个口味

[01:24:48,283 --> 01:24:48,950]
段永平：他习惯

[01:24:48,950 --> 01:24:50,185]
段永平：你要跟一堆不喜欢

[01:24:50,452 --> 01:24:51,352]
段永平：不喝茅台的人

[01:24:51,352 --> 01:24:52,954]
段永平：你就没办法讲那个事情

[01:24:53,254 --> 01:24:54,088]
段永平：你就跟鱼讲

[01:24:54,189 --> 01:24:55,423]
方三文：路上行走的乐趣

[01:24:55,557 --> 01:24:56,057]
方三文：如何讲

[01:24:56,324 --> 01:24:56,858]
方三文：没有办法

[01:24:57,025 --> 01:24:57,425]
段永平：但是

[01:24:57,425 --> 01:24:58,259]
段永平：它是一个事实

[01:25:00,061 --> 01:25:01,162]
段永平：喜欢喝茅台的人

[01:25:01,162 --> 01:25:02,096]
段永平：他们一直在喝

[01:25:02,597 --> 01:25:03,631]
段永平：只要他们能喝

[01:25:04,065 --> 01:25:04,632]
段永平：喝得起

[01:25:04,866 --> 01:25:05,633]
段永平：有条件喝

[01:25:06,234 --> 01:25:06,868]
段永平：就这么简单

[01:25:09,070 --> 01:25:10,105]
段永平：那么你的核心

[01:25:10,338 --> 01:25:12,607]
段永平：是茅台的独特的口味

[01:25:12,607 --> 01:25:14,175]
段永平：和它的目标消费者

[01:25:14,175 --> 01:25:15,510]
段永平：对这个独特口味的认同

[01:25:16,077 --> 01:25:16,711]
段永平：你最重要

[01:25:16,711 --> 01:25:17,879]
段永平：它有没有一个文化

[01:25:17,879 --> 01:25:19,948]
段永平：可以维持这个东西

[01:25:20,215 --> 01:25:20,782]
方三文：它如果

[01:25:21,950 --> 01:25:24,219]
方三文：把这个出品的文化改了

[01:25:25,386 --> 01:25:26,087]
方三文：多干快上

[01:25:26,387 --> 01:25:27,589]
方三文：多快好省的这个

[01:25:27,922 --> 01:25:28,857]
方三文：大干快上

[01:25:29,057 --> 01:25:30,391]
方三文：那它是要出问题的

[01:25:30,458 --> 01:25:31,159]
方三文：我觉得茅台

[01:25:31,926 --> 01:25:33,328]
方三文：到目前为止还好

[01:25:33,328 --> 01:25:34,896]
方三文：我没有看到这样的问题

[01:25:35,130 --> 01:25:35,964]
段永平：我觉得他们对

[01:25:37,065 --> 01:25:40,034]
段永平：那些最基本的品质的标准呢

[01:25:40,335 --> 01:25:41,803]
段永平：他们坚持的是很严的

[01:25:42,036 --> 01:25:44,038]
段永平：所以我还是可以蛮放心的

[01:25:45,006 --> 01:25:46,174]
方三文：我们确实蛮多茅台

[01:25:46,407 --> 01:25:47,008]
方三文：大概就这样

[01:25:47,642 --> 01:25:49,310]
方三文：一个是它有独特的口味

[01:25:49,310 --> 01:25:51,379]
段永平：然后目标消费者对这个口味有认同

[01:25:51,446 --> 01:25:53,047]
段永平：另外你从公司的角度

[01:25:53,047 --> 01:25:55,016]
段永平：你觉得它能维系这个口味

[01:25:55,250 --> 01:25:56,417]
方三文：它是国营企业

[01:25:56,784 --> 01:25:58,119]
段永平：国营企业有国营企业的好处

[01:25:58,286 --> 01:25:59,287]
段永平：我在国营企业也待过

[01:25:59,287 --> 01:26:00,488]
段永平：这些规矩

[01:26:00,488 --> 01:26:01,556]
段永平：不太有人敢改

[01:26:02,290 --> 01:26:03,458]
段永平：太多的人盯着

[01:26:03,758 --> 01:26:06,060]
段永平：所以我觉得他们应该是可以

[01:26:06,628 --> 01:26:07,529]
段永平：可以走很远

[01:26:07,695 --> 01:26:08,830]
段永平：茅台这样的

[01:26:09,230 --> 01:26:11,466]
段永平：你认为这个方面稳定性很强

[01:26:12,133 --> 01:26:13,334]
段永平：比如说它估值非常贵

[01:26:15,336 --> 01:26:17,138]
段永平：我举个例子吧 50倍市盈率

[01:26:17,672 --> 01:26:19,607]
段永平：你觉得你会把它卖掉吗

[01:26:19,607 --> 01:26:22,544]
段永平：市盈率是讲的在某一个时刻

[01:26:22,911 --> 01:26:24,746]
段永平：你比方说它这一次

[01:26:24,746 --> 01:26:26,981]
段永平：搞一个单笔冲销某个东西

[01:26:27,315 --> 01:26:29,551]
段永平：当前的市盈率可能会突然就上去

[01:26:31,386 --> 01:26:34,189]
段永平：因为决定投资不是由市盈率来决定的

[01:26:34,189 --> 01:26:36,190]
段永平：是由你未来的现金流来决定

[01:26:36,424 --> 01:26:37,926]
段永平：你关键看你未来的这个

[01:26:38,126 --> 01:26:38,960]
段永平：我不能跟你讲

[01:26:38,960 --> 01:26:41,062]
段永平：它市盈率要是到了50倍我就要卖

[01:26:43,398 --> 01:26:45,900]
段永平：当然如果它是正常的情况下

[01:26:45,900 --> 01:26:47,468]
段永平：它就是疯涨到了50倍

[01:26:47,702 --> 01:26:49,270]
段永平：就比方说今天的茅台的价格

[01:26:50,104 --> 01:26:51,239]
段永平：突然再涨个三倍

[01:26:52,006 --> 01:26:53,575]
段永平：那我可能也是会想卖

[01:26:54,142 --> 01:26:57,779]
段永平：其实2600 2700的时候我是可想卖了

[01:26:57,979 --> 01:26:59,447]
段永平：因为觉得那个时候其实已经

[01:27:00,215 --> 01:27:02,250]
段永平：相对来讲那个时点是贵的

[01:27:02,250 --> 01:27:03,985]
段永平：我当时最犹豫最犹豫的就是

[01:27:04,919 --> 01:27:06,788]
段永平：我们的仓位太大了

[01:27:06,788 --> 01:27:08,089]
方三文：我卖了以后我买什么

[01:27:08,289 --> 01:27:09,891]
段永平：我就开始折磨自己 对不对

[01:27:10,625 --> 01:27:13,228]
段永平：然后放眼看去我什么都买不下手

[01:27:13,228 --> 01:27:14,262]
段永平：然后现在掉下来了

[01:27:14,262 --> 01:27:15,563]
段永平：你要卖了就好了

[01:27:15,663 --> 01:27:16,130]
段永平：是

[01:27:16,531 --> 01:27:17,765]
段永平：你那卖的那些人

[01:27:17,765 --> 01:27:18,866]
段永平：不是亏得更多吗

[01:27:18,866 --> 01:27:20,201]
段永平：因为你买了别的 对不对

[01:27:20,268 --> 01:27:22,070]
段永平：我敢保证大部分人是更亏的

[01:27:22,303 --> 01:27:23,304]
段永平：除非你卖了以后

[01:27:23,304 --> 01:27:24,706]
段永平：就一直拿着现金拿到今天

[01:27:25,039 --> 01:27:26,374]
段永平：那你确实牛

[01:27:27,141 --> 01:27:27,609]
段永平：我做不到

[01:27:27,742 --> 01:27:28,743]
段永平：我是一个满仓主义者

[01:27:28,743 --> 01:27:30,244]
段永平：我不买一个股票呢

[01:27:30,244 --> 01:27:32,180]
段永平：我心里头就会不舒服

[01:27:32,247 --> 01:27:33,848]
段永平：拿着现金是一件很难受的事情

[01:27:33,948 --> 01:27:35,049]
段永平：尤其人民币你拿现金

[01:27:35,049 --> 01:27:37,018]
段永平：你存银行里才一点几个点的利息

[01:27:37,151 --> 01:27:37,752]
段永平：你不难受

[01:27:38,353 --> 01:27:39,320]
方三文：你不得买点啥

[01:27:39,721 --> 01:27:41,122]
方三文：买完不就都亏了嘛

[01:27:41,256 --> 01:27:41,489]
段永平：对不对

[01:27:41,823 --> 01:27:44,325]
段永平：你还不如拿着茅台知道它早晚会回来嘛

[01:27:46,394 --> 01:27:48,062]
段永平：我可真的就是想通了这个问题

[01:27:48,229 --> 01:27:48,796]
方三文：当然了

[01:27:48,796 --> 01:27:49,764]
方三文：你事后诸葛亮

[01:27:49,764 --> 01:27:51,566]
段永平：你也没想好它会一下掉那么多

[01:27:51,566 --> 01:27:52,233]
段永平：对不对

[01:27:52,233 --> 01:27:53,701]
段永平：当然这跟大环境也

[01:27:53,701 --> 01:27:54,769]
段永平：其实也没掉多少

[01:27:55,370 --> 01:27:57,972]
段永平：从2600掉到1200

[01:27:57,972 --> 01:27:58,606]
段永平：掉了50%

[01:27:58,606 --> 01:27:59,607]
段永平：其实是没多少

[01:28:00,508 --> 01:28:01,809]
段永平：你一个股票

[01:28:01,809 --> 01:28:03,845]
段永平：你要是扛不住掉50%

[01:28:03,845 --> 01:28:04,479]
段永平：你就不应该买

[01:28:04,479 --> 01:28:06,280]
段永平：我是觉得是OK的

[01:28:06,347 --> 01:28:08,249]
段永平：所以我们后来其实还买了不少

[01:28:08,650 --> 01:28:10,985]
段永平：我们其实有闲钱会一直买

[01:28:11,152 --> 01:28:13,021]
段永平：就是说之前2021年的时候

[01:28:13,521 --> 01:28:14,622]
段永平：大概2600的时候

[01:28:15,089 --> 01:28:17,892]
段永平：你觉得从未来现金流折现的角度来说

[01:28:18,059 --> 01:28:20,128]
段永平：你不能说那个价格是很有吸引力的

[01:28:20,595 --> 01:28:22,630]
段永平：其实就是取决你的机会成本

[01:28:22,630 --> 01:28:24,298]
段永平：我卖掉了以后钱放在哪

[01:28:24,699 --> 01:28:27,435]
段永平：我并不能够得到更高的回报

[01:28:28,302 --> 01:28:30,238]
段永平：其实它的分红还是比利息高

[01:28:30,405 --> 01:28:31,139]
段永平：所以你就拿着

[01:28:31,139 --> 01:28:32,240]
段永平：其实我并没有亏

[01:28:32,774 --> 01:28:34,108]
段永平：这是股价上大家看着

[01:28:34,542 --> 01:28:36,310]
段永平：如果我要是当时卖掉

[01:28:36,511 --> 01:28:37,945]
段永平：我不就多赚了嘛

[01:28:39,247 --> 01:28:40,148]
段永平：投资不能这么想

[01:28:40,381 --> 01:28:42,150]
段永平：投资这么想你早就卖掉

[01:28:42,684 --> 01:28:44,452]
段永平：那些2600的时候该卖的那些人

[01:28:44,452 --> 01:28:45,787]
段永平：可能1200就卖掉

[01:28:46,421 --> 01:28:46,688]
段永平：对不对

[01:28:47,555 --> 01:28:48,990]
段永平：所以他们拿不到那个时候

[01:28:49,924 --> 01:28:50,692]
段永平：所以拿到那个时候

[01:28:50,692 --> 01:28:52,293]
段永平：他可能将来会拿到3000 4000

[01:28:52,293 --> 01:28:53,194]
段永平：都是有可能的

[01:28:53,328 --> 01:28:54,662]
段永平：我觉得茅台将来一定会回来

[01:28:55,229 --> 01:28:56,597]
段永平：但是什么时候我不知道

[01:28:57,231 --> 01:28:59,901]
段永平：可能五年十年 没有人知道

[01:29:01,269 --> 01:29:03,371]
段永平：关键这个钱你如果不在茅台上

[01:29:03,471 --> 01:29:05,006]
段永平：你必须要有个地方去嘛

[01:29:05,340 --> 01:29:06,307]
段永平：那你去哪里

[01:29:07,341 --> 01:29:08,009]
段永平：这个很重要

[01:29:08,009 --> 01:29:09,110]
段永平：你要回答不了这个问题

[01:29:09,210 --> 01:29:12,246]
段永平：其实讨论投资都是瞎扯

[01:29:12,647 --> 01:29:14,816]
段永平：那如果当时有个你认为

[01:29:15,316 --> 01:29:16,984]
段永平：可以无缝切过去的

[01:29:16,984 --> 01:29:19,954]
段永平：你将来自由现金流折现比茅台好的

[01:29:19,954 --> 01:29:20,955]
段永平：其实你是会换的

[01:29:21,022 --> 01:29:21,723]
段永平：当然会呀

[01:29:22,356 --> 01:29:23,524]
段永平：投资是要卖的

[01:29:24,559 --> 01:29:26,227]
段永平：我觉得很多人对所谓的价值投资

[01:29:26,227 --> 01:29:27,495]
段永平：有个很大的误解就是

[01:29:28,196 --> 01:29:29,764]
段永平：你要长期持有的意思

[01:29:29,831 --> 01:29:30,631]
段永平：就不可以卖了

[01:29:30,765 --> 01:29:33,468]
段永平：长期持有是一个意向

[01:29:33,768 --> 01:29:35,937]
段永平：就是我买的那个刹那

[01:29:35,937 --> 01:29:37,305]
段永平：我是打算长期持有的

[01:29:37,538 --> 01:29:39,907]
段永平：但是你永远是算你的机会成本的

[01:29:39,907 --> 01:29:41,476]
段永平：如果你发现一个更好的公司

[01:29:41,843 --> 01:29:43,277]
段永平：你觉得更踏实

[01:29:43,344 --> 01:29:47,348]
段永平：比方说你五年前看懂了英伟达

[01:29:47,682 --> 01:29:50,284]
段永平：假设你看到了今天这样的局面

[01:29:50,551 --> 01:29:51,619]
段永平：你手里只有茅台

[01:29:52,120 --> 01:29:53,154]
段永平：如果能够换的话

[01:29:53,488 --> 01:29:54,455]
段永平：你没有道理不换

[01:29:54,455 --> 01:29:55,523]
段永平：但你也看不懂

[01:29:55,757 --> 01:29:56,791]
段永平：你就不要扯这个事

[01:29:57,024 --> 01:29:57,725]
段永平：那就没关系

[01:29:58,025 --> 01:29:58,993]
段永平：有个人问了一个

[01:29:58,993 --> 01:30:00,862]
段永平：跟酒直接关系的

[01:30:00,928 --> 01:30:02,830]
段永平：叫“稻妻浪子”

[01:30:03,398 --> 01:30:05,266]
段永平：他说同为高度酒

[01:30:05,500 --> 01:30:07,268]
段永平：为什么威士忌 伏特加

[01:30:07,268 --> 01:30:08,469]
段永平：可以在中国流行

[01:30:09,036 --> 01:30:11,105]
段永平：五粮液 茅台却没办法在（国外）流行

[01:30:11,239 --> 01:30:14,375]
段永平：中国白酒有国际化的机会吗

[01:30:14,609 --> 01:30:15,243]
段永平：我不知道

[01:30:15,943 --> 01:30:18,646]
方三文：我觉得茅台是肯定有的

[01:30:19,714 --> 01:30:20,448]
方三文：中国白酒

[01:30:20,448 --> 01:30:22,216]
段永平：我都说茅台和白酒是两个东西

[01:30:22,483 --> 01:30:23,317]
段永平：好 就说茅台吧

[01:30:23,518 --> 01:30:25,353]
段永平：茅台就是中国人所到之处

[01:30:25,787 --> 01:30:26,654]
段永平：很多人喝茅台

[01:30:27,021 --> 01:30:28,356]
方三文：他们到了这也喝茅台

[01:30:28,723 --> 01:30:30,558]
段永平：他说在这里面指的国外

[01:30:30,558 --> 01:30:32,693]
段永平：肯定不是华人喝茅台

[01:30:32,693 --> 01:30:33,961]
段永平：你花功夫了吗

[01:30:34,328 --> 01:30:35,229]
方三文：那你没花功夫

[01:30:35,229 --> 01:30:36,597]
段永平：你怎么就让人家喝了呢

[01:30:36,964 --> 01:30:39,267]
段永平：酒是一个很长久的文化的东西

[01:30:39,867 --> 01:30:42,136]
段永平：你如何能够让大家喝茅台

[01:30:42,136 --> 01:30:43,204]
段永平：人家都没听说过

[01:30:43,271 --> 01:30:43,571]
段永平：对不对

[01:30:44,138 --> 01:30:45,540]
段永平：但是中国人都听过威士忌

[01:30:46,507 --> 01:30:47,542]
段永平：喝威士忌的人

[01:30:47,542 --> 01:30:49,410]
段永平：也都是这些商务人士

[01:30:50,011 --> 01:30:51,379]
段永平：我是宁愿喝威士忌

[01:30:52,113 --> 01:30:52,980]
段永平：我也不喝茅台

[01:30:53,581 --> 01:30:55,082]
段永平：因为好的威士忌

[01:30:55,149 --> 01:30:55,883]
段永平：它要柔一些

[01:30:56,250 --> 01:30:57,718]
段永平：茅台还是对我来讲有点冲

[01:30:57,852 --> 01:30:59,887]
段永平：但是你看我们三十年庆的时候

[01:31:00,288 --> 01:31:03,925]
段永平：我们晚餐就有30年的茅台

[01:31:04,492 --> 01:31:05,460]
段永平：那个还是挺好

[01:31:05,960 --> 01:31:07,462]
段永平：那30年的茅台真的不错

[01:31:07,462 --> 01:31:09,163]
段永平：我家里有些30年的茅台

[01:31:09,163 --> 01:31:11,065]
段永平：那就十几年前我买茅台的时候

[01:31:11,933 --> 01:31:12,834]
段永平：我买了一批酒

[01:31:13,267 --> 01:31:14,101]
段永平：但是因为我不喝

[01:31:14,101 --> 01:31:15,203]
段永平：我要喝我早喝完了

[01:31:15,369 --> 01:31:17,405]
段永平：那些其中一批30年的茅台

[01:31:17,405 --> 01:31:17,972]
段永平：存到今天

[01:31:19,006 --> 01:31:20,374]
段永平：那肯定是很好喝

[01:31:20,508 --> 01:31:22,109]
段永平：偶尔会有朋友来的时候

[01:31:22,109 --> 01:31:23,177]
段永平：开个一瓶两瓶的

[01:31:23,244 --> 01:31:24,879]
段永平：确实很柔很不错的

[01:31:24,879 --> 01:31:25,880]
段永平：再问一个

[01:31:25,880 --> 01:31:27,949]
段永平：一个叫“非完全进化体”的用户

[01:31:29,050 --> 01:31:30,418]
段永平：他说投资茅台

[01:31:30,418 --> 01:31:33,721]
段永平：需不需要看宏观的环境

[01:31:33,721 --> 01:31:34,722]
段永平：我不觉得需要

[01:31:35,223 --> 01:31:37,191]
段永平：投资本来你就是看十年

[01:31:37,525 --> 01:31:38,125]
段永平：二十年

[01:31:38,659 --> 01:31:41,963]
段永平：当然如果宏观环境一直都不太好

[01:31:41,963 --> 01:31:43,264]
段永平：那你投别的也很惨

[01:31:43,531 --> 01:31:44,632]
方三文：这个其实并没有区别

[01:31:44,632 --> 01:31:46,901]
方三文：还是取决于你这个钱放在哪里

[01:31:47,502 --> 01:31:49,103]
方三文：像茅台现在这种情况

[01:31:49,237 --> 01:31:49,670]
段永平：放在那里

[01:31:49,670 --> 01:31:51,105]
段永平：你股息可能都能拿到

[01:31:51,138 --> 01:31:53,407]
段永平：你目前投资的3% 4%了

[01:31:53,407 --> 01:31:54,575]
段永平：那肯定比放银行好

[01:31:54,709 --> 01:31:56,477]
段永平：当然比亏在别的地方会更好

[01:31:56,477 --> 01:31:57,578]
段永平：但茅台会不会再掉

[01:31:58,012 --> 01:31:58,679]
段永平：完全有可能

[01:31:58,679 --> 01:32:00,348]
段永平：那你要有钱就继续买

[01:32:00,681 --> 01:32:05,086]
段永平：当然我也不想买成他们的大股东

[01:32:05,086 --> 01:32:06,420]
段永平：他们也不想卖给我

[01:32:06,554 --> 01:32:07,088]
段永平：对不对

[01:32:07,521 --> 01:32:09,257]
段永平：但是多买一点我总是可以的吧

[01:32:14,795 --> 01:32:15,897]
段永平：我们接下来问一些

[01:32:15,897 --> 01:32:17,164]
段永平：更轻松的一点的问题

[01:32:17,498 --> 01:32:18,366]
段永平：更开放性的

[01:32:18,366 --> 01:32:19,200]
段永平：都很轻松嘛

[01:32:21,002 --> 01:32:23,971]
方三文：这一个叫“于扬”的用户

[01:32:23,971 --> 01:32:24,505]
方三文：他问

[01:32:24,505 --> 01:32:26,140]
方三文：对AI的看法是什么

[01:32:26,140 --> 01:32:28,709]
方三文：是一个泡沫还是再一次的工业革命

[01:32:28,976 --> 01:32:30,278]
方三文：它肯定是个工业革命

[01:32:30,745 --> 01:32:31,646]
方三文：但是

[01:32:32,747 --> 01:32:34,482]
方三文：泡沫总是会伴随而来的

[01:32:34,949 --> 01:32:36,050]
方三文：泡沫的特征就是

[01:32:37,151 --> 01:32:38,853]
方三文：阿猫阿狗都跟着一起涨

[01:32:39,153 --> 01:32:40,154]
段永平：你现在就是

[01:32:40,154 --> 01:32:41,422]
段永平：凡事只要一说AI

[01:32:41,422 --> 01:32:44,325]
段永平：大家就冲进去买吧

[01:32:44,859 --> 01:32:45,393]
段永平：但是

[01:32:45,726 --> 01:32:47,094]
段永平：最后会有一些公司

[01:32:47,895 --> 01:32:49,664]
段永平：它在里面确实是会很厉害

[01:32:49,830 --> 01:32:50,598]
段永平：因为我们学哲学

[01:32:50,598 --> 01:32:52,133]
段永平：有个量变到质变的过程

[01:32:52,800 --> 01:32:55,303]
段永平：那其实AI没有什么了不起的

[01:32:55,303 --> 01:32:56,570]
段永平：AI就是计算机应用

[01:32:56,704 --> 01:32:58,306]
段永平：它不是上了一个量级

[01:32:58,806 --> 01:33:00,808]
段永平：它是上了一百个量级

[01:33:00,808 --> 01:33:01,642]
段永平：一万个量级

[01:33:01,642 --> 01:33:02,743]
段永平：它这么个上法

[01:33:03,311 --> 01:33:04,111]
段永平：真的就改变了

[01:33:04,111 --> 01:33:04,979]
段永平：你想以前

[01:33:05,246 --> 01:33:06,881]
段永平：我记得我们这个

[01:33:07,148 --> 01:33:08,616]
段永平：计算机里头还要讲算法

[01:33:09,550 --> 01:33:10,351]
段永平：你要省空间

[01:33:11,485 --> 01:33:14,021]
段永平：最后那个存储器起来了以后

[01:33:14,255 --> 01:33:15,189]
段永平：空间变得就不重要

[01:33:15,489 --> 01:33:16,457]
段永平：还是重要

[01:33:16,457 --> 01:33:17,558]
段永平：但是就没有那么重要

[01:33:17,725 --> 01:33:19,160]
段永平：但是你看到了这个地方

[01:33:20,027 --> 01:33:21,362]
方三文：DeepSeek搞了个算法

[01:33:21,896 --> 01:33:23,831]
方三文：它又可以让它更省成本

[01:33:23,831 --> 01:33:25,099]
段永平：更省成本并不会

[01:33:25,399 --> 01:33:26,734]
段永平：因此（让）大家不需要算力

[01:33:26,734 --> 01:33:28,669]
段永平：它会激发更多的算力

[01:33:28,936 --> 01:33:30,471]
段永平：你现在用AI的人越来越多

[01:33:30,738 --> 01:33:31,439]
段永平：英伟达也不会

[01:33:31,439 --> 01:33:32,440]
段永平：因此它就卖不动了

[01:33:32,506 --> 01:33:34,308]
段永平：所以AI肯定是

[01:33:35,810 --> 01:33:36,410]
段永平：是一个

[01:33:37,345 --> 01:33:38,779]
段永平：带来很大变化的东西

[01:33:39,213 --> 01:33:40,147]
段永平：但是到底多大

[01:33:40,348 --> 01:33:42,416]
段永平：会带来什么样的东西

[01:33:43,084 --> 01:33:43,985]
段永平：什么样大变化

[01:33:43,985 --> 01:33:46,320]
段永平：我其实也没有完全想懂

[01:33:46,354 --> 01:33:47,822]
段永平：我就想工业革命的时候

[01:33:48,289 --> 01:33:49,423]
段永平：比方说蒸汽机出来

[01:33:49,757 --> 01:33:50,758]
段永平：有了机器

[01:33:50,925 --> 01:33:52,259]
段永平：你慢慢就有了工厂

[01:33:52,360 --> 01:33:54,929]
段永平：就把农民赶到了工厂里头去了

[01:33:55,062 --> 01:33:57,198]
段永平：那这个生产效率确实大幅度提高

[01:33:57,198 --> 01:33:59,333]
段永平：那么GDP确实就提高了

[01:33:59,567 --> 01:34:00,234]
段永平：后来又有了

[01:34:00,234 --> 01:34:02,003]
段永平：比方说汽车 飞机

[01:34:02,003 --> 01:34:04,538]
段永平：大家的活动范围又大了

[01:34:04,538 --> 01:34:06,574]
段永平：那么GDP其实也是会跟着高的

[01:34:06,574 --> 01:34:08,843]
段永平：但是AI到底会怎么样

[01:34:09,410 --> 01:34:09,977]
方三文：我现在不知道

[01:34:10,211 --> 01:34:11,512]
方三文：但是我知道很多人的工作

[01:34:11,579 --> 01:34:12,713]
方三文：肯定是要出问题的

[01:34:12,713 --> 01:34:14,849]
方三文：我以前我要看一家新公司

[01:34:15,182 --> 01:34:17,084]
方三文：我可是不容易搞懂

[01:34:17,084 --> 01:34:18,319]
段永平：现在可容易了

[01:34:18,753 --> 01:34:19,487]
方三文：你就找AI

[01:34:20,121 --> 01:34:20,654]
段永平：你就问

[01:34:21,088 --> 01:34:21,822]
段永平：问一个问题

[01:34:21,822 --> 01:34:23,024]
段永平：它后面会跟几个问题

[01:34:23,024 --> 01:34:23,724]
段永平：你一个一个问

[01:34:24,425 --> 01:34:26,827]
段永平：你可能一个小时半个小时

[01:34:27,061 --> 01:34:29,397]
段永平：你就对一个完全不知道的公司

[01:34:29,497 --> 01:34:30,564]
段永平：有个大致的了解

[01:34:31,032 --> 01:34:31,832]
段永平：然后我可以决定

[01:34:31,866 --> 01:34:33,300]
段永平：我是不是要再深入的去了解

[01:34:33,300 --> 01:34:34,402]
段永平：这个效率太高了

[01:34:34,402 --> 01:34:35,603]
段永平：那你再想医疗

[01:34:36,037 --> 01:34:38,105]
段永平：你想那些做药物研究的人

[01:34:38,506 --> 01:34:39,573]
段永平：做医疗研究的人

[01:34:39,673 --> 01:34:41,375]
段永平：以前可能你要一个团队

[01:34:41,442 --> 01:34:42,443]
方三文：搞好几年的东西

[01:34:42,943 --> 01:34:44,245]
方三文：现在可能就一个人

[01:34:44,245 --> 01:34:45,446]
方三文：花两天就搞完了

[01:34:46,113 --> 01:34:47,281]
方三文：这个东西将来

[01:34:47,281 --> 01:34:48,816]
段永平：你不知道会带来什么样的变化

[01:34:48,816 --> 01:34:49,684]
段永平：非常的恐怖

[01:34:49,684 --> 01:34:50,584]
段永平：可能还有很多

[01:34:50,818 --> 01:34:51,352]
段永平：你看现在

[01:34:52,119 --> 01:34:54,655]
段永平：你连动画到底是真人还是假的

[01:34:54,655 --> 01:34:55,389]
段永平：你都不知道

[01:34:55,489 --> 01:34:56,590]
段永平：那电影行业的人

[01:34:56,724 --> 01:34:57,892]
段永平：是不是就很难受

[01:34:59,460 --> 01:35:00,961]
方三文：作家们我估计也会难受的

[01:35:01,195 --> 01:35:02,129]
方三文：你想写个小说

[01:35:02,630 --> 01:35:03,664]
方三文：我都能写了现在

[01:35:04,565 --> 01:35:06,867]
方三文：我要想模仿方三文的口吻

[01:35:06,867 --> 01:35:07,735]
方三文：写一篇小说

[01:35:07,735 --> 01:35:08,669]
方三文：它真能写出来

[01:35:08,703 --> 01:35:09,804]
段永平：但是模仿人发言

[01:35:09,804 --> 01:35:10,871]
段永平：它肯定是可以做到的

[01:35:11,405 --> 01:35:12,173]
段永平：但它不一定是真的

[01:35:12,306 --> 01:35:13,808]
段永平：但它可以做到有点像的

[01:35:14,708 --> 01:35:16,210]
段永平：但投资这个东西它取代不了

[01:35:16,243 --> 01:35:17,945]
段永平：它对投资行业

[01:35:17,945 --> 01:35:18,846]
段永平：可能有什么影响呢

[01:35:19,080 --> 01:35:20,514]
段永平：炒股票的人会很危险

[01:35:20,848 --> 01:35:23,417]
段永平：因为你炒不过梁文锋了

[01:35:23,417 --> 01:35:24,618]
段永平：这个早就发现了

[01:35:24,618 --> 01:35:26,087]
段永平：所以你全是韭菜

[01:35:26,320 --> 01:35:28,222]
段永平：你想看图看线

[01:35:28,222 --> 01:35:29,523]
段永平：去炒股赚钱的人

[01:35:29,957 --> 01:35:32,093]
段永平：你就是铁铁的韭菜

[01:35:32,326 --> 01:35:33,527]
段永平：但是它收割不了我

[01:35:34,161 --> 01:35:35,229]
段永平：因为我就不动

[01:35:35,262 --> 01:35:36,063]
段永平：我也不交易

[01:35:36,263 --> 01:35:37,698]
段永平：我买了茅台我就拿着了

[01:35:38,132 --> 01:35:39,934]
段永平：你要砸下来我就买呗

[01:35:40,868 --> 01:35:42,503]
段永平：因为最后你想

[01:35:43,037 --> 01:35:44,472]
段永平：因为买公司最后

[01:35:44,805 --> 01:35:46,507]
段永平：这句话很少人有懂

[01:35:46,507 --> 01:35:48,042]
段永平：真正的公司的买家

[01:35:48,075 --> 01:35:48,743]
段永平：只有一个人

[01:35:49,477 --> 01:35:50,344]
段永平：就是公司本身

[01:35:50,744 --> 01:35:51,746]
段永平：它是靠它的盈利

[01:35:51,746 --> 01:35:52,880]
段永平：最后会把自己买回来

[01:35:53,581 --> 01:35:54,482]
段永平：但是它的变

[01:35:54,882 --> 01:35:57,184]
段永平：衍生的状态有很多种

[01:35:57,418 --> 01:35:58,252]
段永平：所以只要公司

[01:35:58,486 --> 01:36:00,488]
段永平：最后赚钱赚到你淹到脖子的时候

[01:36:00,488 --> 01:36:01,522]
方三文：它不得不买回来

[01:36:01,689 --> 01:36:02,623]
方三文：茅台也有这个问题

[01:36:02,890 --> 01:36:04,125]
方三文：最后它不得不分红

[01:36:04,525 --> 01:36:05,593]
方三文：分红你自己买吧

[01:36:05,926 --> 01:36:07,061]
段永平：或者它回购

[01:36:07,261 --> 01:36:09,029]
段永平：我觉得茅台它早就应该回购了

[01:36:09,029 --> 01:36:10,731]
段永平：但是它终于开始回购一点点

[01:36:11,565 --> 01:36:12,366]
段永平：实在是没有办法

[01:36:12,433 --> 01:36:13,901]
段永平：钱多了不好受的

[01:36:14,301 --> 01:36:15,803]
段永平：它不知道这个钱花到哪去

[01:36:16,403 --> 01:36:17,705]
段永平：它干脆就买自己股票

[01:36:18,038 --> 01:36:18,906]
段永平：要趁它便宜

[01:36:19,140 --> 01:36:20,641]
段永平：那你的意思是说

[01:36:20,674 --> 01:36:21,575]
段永平：可以看到的

[01:36:22,543 --> 01:36:26,180]
段永平：AI对炒股是有很大的影响的

[01:36:26,447 --> 01:36:28,449]
段永平：对投资可能影响没那么大

[01:36:28,649 --> 01:36:30,184]
段永平：投资没有影响

[01:36:30,451 --> 01:36:31,552]
段永平：它不影响我做的决策

[01:36:31,852 --> 01:36:33,988]
段永平：你要是在看图看线做日内交易者

[01:36:34,221 --> 01:36:35,222]
段永平：你都是找死

[01:36:36,657 --> 01:36:39,293]
段永平：大概率你会比以前更难赚到钱

[01:36:40,427 --> 01:36:42,363]
段永平：那些量化基金

[01:36:42,396 --> 01:36:43,864]
段永平：它们速度非常快

[01:36:43,864 --> 01:36:45,166]
段永平：它确实电脑在操作

[01:36:45,466 --> 01:36:46,500]
段永平：它有人工干预的

[01:36:47,568 --> 01:36:48,903]
段永平：所以你就更打不过它们

[01:36:50,171 --> 01:36:52,673]
段永平：所以我觉得小散户你要想靠

[01:36:54,308 --> 01:36:56,277]
段永平：赚点短线的钱

[01:36:56,510 --> 01:36:57,645]
段永平：看图看线

[01:36:57,745 --> 01:36:58,512]
段永平：大概率是

[01:37:00,281 --> 01:37:01,415]
段永平：只要时间足够长

[01:37:02,082 --> 01:37:04,785]
段永平：这比去澳门也好不到哪里去

[01:37:04,785 --> 01:37:05,619]
段永平：那么这里面

[01:37:05,653 --> 01:37:07,555]
段永平：现在还就是关于AI行业

[01:37:07,588 --> 01:37:08,823]
段永平：有个很大的争议

[01:37:09,824 --> 01:37:11,792]
段永平：对AI能够提高效率

[01:37:11,792 --> 01:37:13,494]
段永平：大家已经没什么争议了

[01:37:13,994 --> 01:37:15,196]
段永平：大家争议的是

[01:37:15,196 --> 01:37:19,567]
方三文：通过这个来提高效率的话

[01:37:19,934 --> 01:37:22,269]
段永平：它到底是一种减员增效

[01:37:22,269 --> 01:37:24,805]
段永平：还是它能创造新的需求

[01:37:24,805 --> 01:37:25,706]
段永平：新的场景

[01:37:25,706 --> 01:37:27,608]
方三文：新的GDP的增量呢

[01:37:28,008 --> 01:37:28,409]
方三文：我不知道

[01:37:29,710 --> 01:37:31,812]
方三文：我觉得它可以创造GDP的增量

[01:37:32,746 --> 01:37:33,380]
方三文：但是

[01:37:34,081 --> 01:37:34,849]
段永平：它减员

[01:37:35,349 --> 01:37:36,150]
段永平：在某些地方

[01:37:36,150 --> 01:37:37,851]
段永平：有人肯定是会被减掉的

[01:37:38,185 --> 01:37:39,553]
段永平：但不是所有人都会减掉

[01:37:42,456 --> 01:37:46,227]
段永平：所以我觉得每个人可能都要

[01:37:47,061 --> 01:37:48,529]
段永平：很认真的对待这件事情

[01:37:49,463 --> 01:37:50,831]
段永平：不要说自己学不会

[01:37:51,198 --> 01:37:52,199]
段永平：其实是可以学会的

[01:37:52,299 --> 01:37:53,067]
段永平：我都可以学

[01:37:53,067 --> 01:37:53,834]
段永平：你为什么就不能学

[01:37:54,969 --> 01:37:57,104]
段永平：我觉得AI会对每个人产生影响

[01:37:57,938 --> 01:37:59,473]
段永平：大人也好 小孩也好

[01:38:01,408 --> 01:38:02,343]
段永平：我看过很多人

[01:38:05,246 --> 01:38:06,213]
段永平：四十多岁以后

[01:38:06,213 --> 01:38:09,316]
段永平：就觉得他不能够再接受新东西了

[01:38:09,817 --> 01:38:10,351]
段永平：其实那样

[01:38:10,351 --> 01:38:12,019]
段永平：我觉得他的日子会过得很难

[01:38:12,152 --> 01:38:13,287]
段永平：很痛苦很难受

[01:38:14,889 --> 01:38:16,490]
段永平：新东西有时候还是挺好玩的

[01:38:16,590 --> 01:38:18,025]
段永平：但是它怎么样创造增量

[01:38:18,192 --> 01:38:20,895]
段永平：是不是你现在也不是那么清晰

[01:38:21,528 --> 01:38:22,496]
段永平：至少很多公司

[01:38:22,496 --> 01:38:24,465]
段永平：现在增量已经明显的出来了

[01:38:24,598 --> 01:38:25,165]
段永平：但是说

[01:38:26,233 --> 01:38:27,668]
段永平：这个增量是来自于

[01:38:27,768 --> 01:38:29,103]
段永平：其他人减下来的吗

[01:38:29,236 --> 01:38:29,937]
段永平：我不知道

[01:38:30,170 --> 01:38:32,606]
段永平：你看这些包括Meta

[01:38:32,740 --> 01:38:33,440]
段永平：包括谷歌

[01:38:33,574 --> 01:38:34,141]
段永平：微软

[01:38:34,441 --> 01:38:35,175]
段永平：甲骨文

[01:38:36,810 --> 01:38:37,411]
段永平：Adobe

[01:38:37,411 --> 01:38:38,279]
段永平：你看这些公司

[01:38:38,579 --> 01:38:39,680]
段永平：它们都明显有增量

[01:38:39,780 --> 01:38:40,514]
段永平：包括腾讯

[01:38:41,315 --> 01:38:42,416]
段永平：AI开始用了以后

[01:38:42,549 --> 01:38:43,851]
段永平：广告效率 很多东西

[01:38:43,851 --> 01:38:45,486]
段永平：它一下就起来了

[01:38:45,486 --> 01:38:47,721]
段永平：它确实提高了效率

[01:38:47,988 --> 01:38:50,391]
段永平：而且它还可能还省了人了

[01:38:50,591 --> 01:38:51,959]
段永平：生产安装线我不知道

[01:38:53,527 --> 01:38:55,596]
段永平：我没有办法去想所有的行业

[01:38:56,030 --> 01:38:57,064]
段永平：因为这个问题很大

[01:38:57,665 --> 01:38:58,599]
段永平：这个问题当然也是我

[01:38:59,767 --> 01:39:00,768]
段永平：我也很想知道

[01:39:00,968 --> 01:39:01,702]
方三文：我还前两天

[01:39:01,769 --> 01:39:05,606]
方三文：专门跟一个获过诺贝尔奖的经济学家聊过

[01:39:05,839 --> 01:39:07,641]
方三文：他说他也看不懂

[01:39:08,309 --> 01:39:12,446]
段永平：就觉得这是一个很神秘的事情

[01:39:14,048 --> 01:39:16,383]
段永平：但是我觉得大概率它是会增加的

[01:39:16,483 --> 01:39:17,351]
方三文：它是会增加的

[01:39:17,351 --> 01:39:18,619]
方三文：它像工业革命一样

[01:39:18,686 --> 01:39:19,953]
方三文：它提高了效率

[01:39:21,055 --> 01:39:23,824]
方三文：它很有机会增加GDP

[01:39:23,824 --> 01:39:25,993]
方三文：从回顾过往的话

[01:39:26,493 --> 01:39:28,595]
段永平：凡是一个东西它提高了效率

[01:39:28,595 --> 01:39:30,831]
段永平：长期来看是它都会产生增量

[01:39:30,831 --> 01:39:32,633]
段永平：你能举出反例吗 关键是

[01:39:32,833 --> 01:39:33,600]
段永平：举不出反例

[01:39:33,600 --> 01:39:34,134]
段永平：是啊

[01:39:34,702 --> 01:39:36,937]
段永平：所以你能够举出反例的话

[01:39:37,037 --> 01:39:38,572]
段永平：那就表示它不成立吗

[01:39:38,872 --> 01:39:40,174]
段永平：如果这么多年下来

[01:39:40,174 --> 01:39:41,842]
段永平：好像我想了一圈

[01:39:41,875 --> 01:39:43,410]
段永平：我也想不出反例

[01:39:43,577 --> 01:39:45,212]
段永平：效率提高了

[01:39:45,379 --> 01:39:46,880]
段永平：整个GDP下来了

[01:39:47,314 --> 01:39:48,282]
段永平：好像不太可能

[01:39:48,582 --> 01:39:50,150]
段永平：你说某个人的GDP下来了

[01:39:50,184 --> 01:39:51,418]
段永平：那是太有可能了

[01:39:51,418 --> 01:39:52,519]
段永平：你的工作都丢了

[01:39:53,654 --> 01:39:54,621]
段永平：你的收入都没了

[01:39:54,621 --> 01:39:55,456]
段永平：就是火车

[01:39:55,456 --> 01:39:56,924]
段永平：比如说让马车夫失业了

[01:39:56,924 --> 01:39:58,125]
段永平：但它显然创造的

[01:39:58,192 --> 01:39:58,459]
段永平：当然

[01:39:58,892 --> 01:40:01,128]
段永平：这速度快了很多

[01:40:03,163 --> 01:40:05,132]
段永平：载运量 速度

[01:40:05,766 --> 01:40:06,967]
段永平：都是大幅度提高

[01:40:06,967 --> 01:40:08,702]
段永平：你的生意范围一下就宽了嘛

[01:40:10,104 --> 01:40:10,871]
段永平：所以我认为

[01:40:12,172 --> 01:40:12,773]
段永平：我猜吧

[01:40:12,773 --> 01:40:13,941]
段永平：应该是可以的

[01:40:19,246 --> 01:40:22,383]
段永平：这里有个叫“辰義承”的用户

[01:40:22,616 --> 01:40:25,986]
段永平：他想问一个孩子教育的事情

[01:40:26,220 --> 01:40:28,255]
段永平：当然可能刚才你已经回答过了

[01:40:28,255 --> 01:40:28,922]
段永平：大概就是在子女教育方面

[01:40:28,922 --> 01:40:30,157]
段永平：大概就是在子女教育方面

[01:40:30,290 --> 01:40:31,125]
段永平：父母能做什么

[01:40:31,291 --> 01:40:31,692]
段永平：父母

[01:40:32,359 --> 01:40:34,328]
段永平：我又不是个儿童教育专家

[01:40:34,328 --> 01:40:36,797]
段永平：我觉得 我在想

[01:40:36,797 --> 01:40:37,731]
段永平：父母做的所有的事情

[01:40:37,865 --> 01:40:39,967]
段永平：其实就是为了给孩子增加安全感

[01:40:40,200 --> 01:40:40,968]
段永平：倒过来

[01:40:42,469 --> 01:40:44,338]
段永平：降低安全感的事情就不应该做

[01:40:44,605 --> 01:40:47,007]
段永平：比方说打孩子啊 呵斥孩子啊

[01:40:47,508 --> 01:40:49,977]
段永平：那你说你不打 他就不听话

[01:40:49,977 --> 01:40:51,412]
段永平：你要找别的办法

[01:40:52,413 --> 01:40:55,883]
段永平：我觉得孩子们其实不需要靠打

[01:40:56,517 --> 01:40:57,818]
段永平：但是打

[01:40:58,218 --> 01:40:59,987]
段永平：打出来的孩子可能更孝顺

[01:41:00,554 --> 01:41:02,823]
段永平：那是吓的 他就养成习惯了

[01:41:02,990 --> 01:41:06,326]
段永平：但是那个对他一辈子的发展

[01:41:06,326 --> 01:41:06,994]
段永平：其实是不好的

[01:41:07,194 --> 01:41:07,895]
段永平：他不开心的

[01:41:09,963 --> 01:41:10,664]
段永平：当然

[01:41:10,664 --> 01:41:12,433]
段永平：有些家长根本就不在乎孩子开不开心

[01:41:13,434 --> 01:41:15,869]
段永平：那你想做什么做什么

[01:41:16,570 --> 01:41:18,605]
段永平：我觉得爱孩子的人不应该那样

[01:41:18,605 --> 01:41:20,507]
段永平：但不是说意味着你可以溺爱

[01:41:20,741 --> 01:41:22,209]
段永平：你就可以没有原则的

[01:41:22,209 --> 01:41:23,277]
段永平：他要什么就给什么

[01:41:24,044 --> 01:41:26,547]
段永平：那这里面确实是有一些边界的东西

[01:41:27,047 --> 01:41:28,482]
段永平：不容易 不好把握

[01:41:28,682 --> 01:41:31,185]
段永平：但是真的要花功夫去做这件事

[01:41:31,652 --> 01:41:32,920]
段永平：但是你有个不为清单

[01:41:32,920 --> 01:41:35,622]
段永平：不要做伤害孩子的安全感的事情

[01:41:36,056 --> 01:41:36,657]
段永平：这是清楚的

[01:41:36,657 --> 01:41:37,524]
段永平：我觉得这个很重要

[01:41:38,459 --> 01:41:39,326]
段永平：就是凡是

[01:41:41,562 --> 01:41:43,997]
段永平：因为家长给孩子做的所有的事情

[01:41:44,064 --> 01:41:46,166]
段永平：其实都是在教他怎么做事情

[01:41:46,233 --> 01:41:48,168]
段永平：所以你骂他就是教他骂人

[01:41:48,602 --> 01:41:50,604]
段永平：你打他就是教他可以将来打孩子

[01:41:51,238 --> 01:41:52,172]
段永平：你跟他发脾气

[01:41:52,172 --> 01:41:53,607]
段永平：就表示他可以发脾气

[01:41:54,241 --> 01:41:54,908]
段永平：你对他好

[01:41:54,908 --> 01:41:57,010]
段永平：他就表示他觉得他要对人好

[01:41:58,679 --> 01:42:00,214]
段永平：那孩子是永远有脾气的

[01:42:00,214 --> 01:42:05,085]
段永平：而且孩子是可以在某一个时刻

[01:42:05,085 --> 01:42:08,789]
段永平：他会用他的语言表达他的情绪

[01:42:08,789 --> 01:42:11,391]
方三文：比方说我不爱你了爸爸

[01:42:11,992 --> 01:42:12,626]
方三文：我不爱爸爸

[01:42:13,393 --> 01:42:16,029]
方三文：他就是那一个时刻

[01:42:16,029 --> 01:42:17,564]
方三文：他有什么东西他不高兴了

[01:42:18,031 --> 01:42:21,168]
段永平：你可不要带上身了

[01:42:21,168 --> 01:42:22,236]
段永平：觉得他真的不爱你了

[01:42:22,236 --> 01:42:24,004]
段永平：所以这个事你就不要理他就好

[01:42:24,104 --> 01:42:24,972]
段永平：不是不理他

[01:42:25,739 --> 01:42:27,341]
段永平：你就打点马虎眼

[01:42:27,541 --> 01:42:28,342]
段永平：找点别的事

[01:42:28,775 --> 01:42:29,910]
段永平：他可能也就好了

[01:42:30,077 --> 01:42:32,379]
段永平：过一会他又开始又我爱你

[01:42:32,379 --> 01:42:33,080]
段永平：又亲你的

[01:42:33,981 --> 01:42:36,550]
段永平：我觉得这个时候你又可以很开心

[01:42:36,550 --> 01:42:39,086]
段永平：关键就是不要跟孩子杠上

[01:42:39,086 --> 01:42:40,020]
段永平：我了解到

[01:42:41,588 --> 01:42:43,423]
段永平：你在教育方面

[01:42:43,423 --> 01:42:45,292]
段永平：是做了一些公益的投入的

[01:42:45,292 --> 01:42:45,492]
段永平：是的

[01:42:45,492 --> 01:42:46,326]
段永平：很多地方都做了

[01:42:46,627 --> 01:42:49,863]
段永平：后来我多少也参与了一些公益的项目

[01:42:52,533 --> 01:42:56,069]
段永平：你觉得你在做这个公益的过程中

[01:42:56,069 --> 01:42:58,939]
段永平：对这个教育的看法有什么变化吗

[01:42:58,939 --> 01:43:00,507]
段永平：因为我也见过很多

[01:43:00,507 --> 01:43:02,376]
段永平：比方说我跟小孩做球童

[01:43:03,043 --> 01:43:04,878]
段永平：那我看过很多家长做球童的时候

[01:43:05,045 --> 01:43:06,747]
段永平：你小孩打不好球会发脾气

[01:43:07,214 --> 01:43:08,515]
段永平：那很多家长就跟着一起发

[01:43:08,849 --> 01:43:09,983]
段永平：骂小孩

[01:43:09,983 --> 01:43:11,318]
段永平：你怎么这个球都打不好

[01:43:11,318 --> 01:43:13,487]
段永平：那个家长怎么是这样子的呢

[01:43:14,254 --> 01:43:16,356]
段永平：其实这个时候他是最需要支持的时候

[01:43:16,924 --> 01:43:18,091]
段永平：他已经很生气了

[01:43:18,258 --> 01:43:19,359]
段永平：我的观点就是

[01:43:19,359 --> 01:43:20,594]
段永平：我这个时候就是抱抱他

[01:43:20,827 --> 01:43:21,361]
段永平：拍拍他

[01:43:21,528 --> 01:43:22,229]
段永平：他有时候不理你

[01:43:22,229 --> 01:43:24,331]
方三文：不理你就等一会

[01:43:24,932 --> 01:43:25,666]
方三文：他过一会就好了

[01:43:26,333 --> 01:43:28,168]
段永平：你不能想的每时每刻

[01:43:28,168 --> 01:43:29,169]
段永平：他都要听你的话

[01:43:29,336 --> 01:43:32,105]
段永平：我记得以前我儿子哭的时候

[01:43:32,573 --> 01:43:33,907]
段永平：不要哭了不要哭了

[01:43:34,007 --> 01:43:34,841]
段永平：男孩子哭什么哭

[01:43:34,841 --> 01:43:36,310]
段永平：爸爸你就让我哭一下嘛

[01:43:36,310 --> 01:43:36,877]
段永平：我一想

[01:43:37,611 --> 01:43:38,612]
段永平：这孩子说的对啊

[01:43:38,612 --> 01:43:39,846]
段永平：让他哭一下有什么问题

[01:43:40,414 --> 01:43:41,014]
段永平：你就让他哭

[01:43:41,348 --> 01:43:42,449]
段永平：哭一会就好了

[01:43:42,716 --> 01:43:43,217]
段永平：什么事都没有

[01:43:43,684 --> 01:43:44,918]
段永平：你不能跟他杠上了

[01:43:44,952 --> 01:43:46,086]
段永平：不许他哭

[01:43:46,086 --> 01:43:47,888]
段永平：还要采用对抗的形式

[01:43:47,888 --> 01:43:48,789]
段永平：我觉得就挺不好

[01:43:49,389 --> 01:43:50,057]
段永平：打孩子就更不好

[01:43:50,657 --> 01:43:53,093]
段永平：打孩子其实也不解决问题

[01:43:53,160 --> 01:43:54,027]
段永平：我又不是没打过孩子

[01:43:54,027 --> 01:43:54,428]
段永平：我打过

[01:43:54,428 --> 01:43:55,462]
段永平：我就想打打看

[01:43:55,796 --> 01:43:56,363]
段永平：管不管用

[01:43:56,363 --> 01:43:57,631]
段永平：发现完全不管用

[01:43:57,631 --> 01:43:59,866]
段永平：这样我就赶紧跟儿子道歉

[01:43:59,967 --> 01:44:01,101]
段永平：说爸爸错了

[01:44:01,101 --> 01:44:03,370]
段永平：爸爸以后永远不会再打你

[01:44:03,470 --> 01:44:04,638]
段永平：我确实就没有再打过孩子

[01:44:06,506 --> 01:44:07,507]
段永平：我不觉得那是个好的办法

[01:44:07,808 --> 01:44:09,109]
段永平：我觉得我们现在关系也挺好

[01:44:09,409 --> 01:44:10,143]
段永平：那我再问一下

[01:44:10,210 --> 01:44:11,311]
段永平：你觉得教育

[01:44:11,945 --> 01:44:14,481]
段永平：在一个人的人生的发展

[01:44:14,481 --> 01:44:16,250]
段永平：或者成功的路上

[01:44:16,750 --> 01:44:17,784]
段永平：它到底有多大作用

[01:44:18,018 --> 01:44:19,620]
段永平：教育的定义是什么在你这边

[01:44:19,853 --> 01:44:20,187]
段永平：教育

[01:44:20,654 --> 01:44:25,359]
段永平：那它包括学习知识 学习方法

[01:44:25,826 --> 01:44:26,159]
段永平：应该是这样

[01:44:26,960 --> 01:44:28,929]
段永平：接受价值观方法论

[01:44:29,730 --> 01:44:30,063]
段永平：知识

[01:44:30,330 --> 01:44:31,732]
段永平：我觉得教育当然是很有作用

[01:44:32,599 --> 01:44:34,401]
段永平：非常有作用

[01:44:34,401 --> 01:44:35,769]
段永平：所以受过良好教育和

[01:44:35,769 --> 01:44:36,970]
段永平：完全没有受过教育的人

[01:44:37,070 --> 01:44:38,705]
段永平：完全不一样

[01:44:39,039 --> 01:44:40,674]
段永平：甚至你从眼神

[01:44:41,308 --> 01:44:44,678]
段永平：从面相就能看出来

[01:44:44,811 --> 01:44:46,413]
段永平：一个人受过教育还是没有受过

[01:44:46,413 --> 01:44:47,981]
段永平：我可以给你举个简单的例子

[01:44:47,981 --> 01:44:49,916]
段永平：我记得以前在小霸王招人的时候

[01:44:50,083 --> 01:44:51,618]
段永平：有个人拿着华南理工大学

[01:44:51,618 --> 01:44:53,987]
段永平：那个时候叫华南工学院

[01:44:55,856 --> 01:44:58,091]
段永平：无线电系毕业的文凭

[01:44:58,191 --> 01:44:59,259]
段永平：就来我这儿找工作

[01:45:00,360 --> 01:45:01,595]
段永平：从进门我就看出来了

[01:45:01,595 --> 01:45:04,097]
段永平：我说觉得不像读过书的人

[01:45:04,097 --> 01:45:05,198]
段永平：就不像上过大学

[01:45:05,966 --> 01:45:07,401]
段永平：那我也不能这么质疑人家

[01:45:07,401 --> 01:45:08,835]
段永平：人家文凭都有嘛

[01:45:09,102 --> 01:45:09,903]
段永平：我就说哎

[01:45:10,203 --> 01:45:12,739]
段永平：你们第一年都上啥课来着

[01:45:13,740 --> 01:45:14,841]
段永平：数学 物理 化学

[01:45:15,008 --> 01:45:16,343]
段永平：我说那是中学的课

[01:45:16,710 --> 01:45:17,744]
段永平：你就没上过大学

[01:45:18,378 --> 01:45:20,080]
段永平：上过大学不会这么回答这个问题

[01:45:20,547 --> 01:45:23,717]
段永平：你真的是能够看出来的

[01:45:23,950 --> 01:45:25,085]
段永平：当然他是大专毕业

[01:45:25,085 --> 01:45:26,153]
段永平：你可能不一定看得出来

[01:45:26,953 --> 01:45:29,623]
段永平：你没上过大专大学啊

[01:45:30,223 --> 01:45:31,725]
段永平：你真的是装不出来的

[01:45:32,092 --> 01:45:33,093]
段永平：有个文凭没有用

[01:45:33,794 --> 01:45:35,696]
段永平：那你说我是一句话没有说啊

[01:45:36,229 --> 01:45:37,297]
段永平：我就一眼就看出来

[01:45:37,297 --> 01:45:38,298]
段永平：从进门我就觉得

[01:45:39,333 --> 01:45:39,700]
段永平：哎

[01:45:40,534 --> 01:45:41,802]
段永平：这个人为什么会来啊

[01:45:41,802 --> 01:45:42,536]
段永平：就是这种

[01:45:43,203 --> 01:45:45,105]
段永平：然后想了一个很奇怪的问题

[01:45:45,472 --> 01:45:46,340]
段永平：一下就问倒

[01:45:48,141 --> 01:45:49,376]
段永平：就问他哎呀

[01:45:49,376 --> 01:45:50,344]
段永平：你没上过大学

[01:45:50,377 --> 01:45:51,912]
段永平：我们是招工程师啊

[01:45:52,112 --> 01:45:54,381]
段永平：这个东西你上去就露馅了嘛

[01:45:55,148 --> 01:45:56,783]
段永平：你肯定是啥都不懂嘛

[01:45:56,783 --> 01:45:59,353]
段永平：他说哎呀我想找份工作

[01:45:59,386 --> 01:46:01,355]
段永平：找份工作你找别的呀

[01:46:01,355 --> 01:46:02,222]
段永平：你这个肯定不行

[01:46:02,222 --> 01:46:03,623]
段永平：找份保安都行嘛

[01:46:04,057 --> 01:46:05,459]
段永平：但是确实有这样的人

[01:46:05,625 --> 01:46:07,160]
段永平：拿假文凭混

[01:46:07,160 --> 01:46:09,429]
段永平：但是这个人肯定是不动脑筋的

[01:46:09,429 --> 01:46:10,397]
段永平：你要拿个假文凭

[01:46:10,397 --> 01:46:11,598]
段永平：你也不要拿这个呀

[01:46:11,932 --> 01:46:14,101]
段永平：这个东西见光死的呀

[01:46:14,301 --> 01:46:15,402]
段永平：所以我就说教育

[01:46:15,402 --> 01:46:17,337]
段永平：尤其是学习的能力很重要

[01:46:18,105 --> 01:46:20,407]
段永平：但是学校里头并不都教这些东西

[01:46:20,507 --> 01:46:21,975]
段永平：但是小镇做题家

[01:46:22,809 --> 01:46:23,643]
段永平：他通过做题

[01:46:23,643 --> 01:46:26,346]
段永平：他可能有些人就会学到这个

[01:46:26,680 --> 01:46:29,316]
段永平：我也是小镇做题家做出来的

[01:46:29,750 --> 01:46:31,318]
段永平：当年我确实做好多题

[01:46:31,785 --> 01:46:33,053]
段永平：我们那时候因为没有书

[01:46:33,053 --> 01:46:36,022]
段永平：也没有地方可以学

[01:46:36,022 --> 01:46:37,557]
段永平：我们那个情况比较特殊了

[01:46:37,624 --> 01:46:38,692]
段永平：后来可能要好很多

[01:46:40,093 --> 01:46:43,063]
段永平：我是觉得做题是挺有帮助的

[01:46:43,563 --> 01:46:45,098]
段永平：但是不是每个人会去悟的

[01:46:45,665 --> 01:46:47,033]
段永平：同样做题很多人会做死

[01:46:47,267 --> 01:46:49,603]
段永平：我是觉得你从里面要找到方法

[01:46:50,170 --> 01:46:51,671]
段永平：从你犯的错误里头

[01:46:51,938 --> 01:46:52,672]
段永平：你去找到

[01:46:52,906 --> 01:46:53,640]
段永平：你为什么会错

[01:46:53,640 --> 01:46:55,142]
段永平：然后你就学会了整个逻辑

[01:47:00,380 --> 01:47:02,115]
段永平：那问一个特别宽泛的问题

[01:47:02,115 --> 01:47:05,519]
段永平：这个是叫“别犹豫别后悔”问的

[01:47:05,519 --> 01:47:05,886]
段永平：他说

[01:47:06,386 --> 01:47:10,657]
段永平：那么你未来还有哪些愿望想要实现的

[01:47:12,426 --> 01:47:13,193]
段永平：你说我吗

[01:47:15,562 --> 01:47:18,665]
段永平：我这个人本来就胸无大志的

[01:47:18,665 --> 01:47:20,333]
段永平：我就过好每一天就挺好

[01:47:20,333 --> 01:47:22,235]
段永平：那未来的愿望也是过好每一天

[01:47:22,235 --> 01:47:23,303]
段永平：做自己喜欢的事情

[01:47:23,370 --> 01:47:24,538]
段永平：其实没什么了不起的

[01:47:25,238 --> 01:47:27,641]
段永平：我从来不是一个我要做点大事

[01:47:27,641 --> 01:47:28,975]
段永平：干点事情的人

[01:47:29,209 --> 01:47:30,811]
段永平：我觉得那个东西

[01:47:30,811 --> 01:47:31,945]
段永平：那我每天在干什么

[01:47:31,945 --> 01:47:34,014]
段永平：我每天都在干点事情

[01:47:34,080 --> 01:47:37,050]
段永平：那就是你做你自己享受的事情

[01:47:37,050 --> 01:47:38,885]
段永平：做你自己能够喜欢的事情

[01:47:38,885 --> 01:47:40,120]
段永平：我觉得很重要

[01:47:40,287 --> 01:47:41,888]
段永平：而且因为你喜欢你才能做得好

[01:47:42,489 --> 01:47:44,090]
段永平：所以不能倒过来讲

[01:47:44,491 --> 01:47:45,592]
段永平：你现在都成功了

[01:47:45,592 --> 01:47:46,593]
段永平：所以你才这么讲

[01:47:46,593 --> 01:47:47,360]
段永平：它不是的

[01:47:47,828 --> 01:47:49,196]
段永平：你不要把本末倒了

[01:47:49,696 --> 01:47:52,899]
段永平：那是因为我在做自己喜欢的事情

[01:47:53,066 --> 01:47:55,035]
段永平：所以我会很认真的做

[01:47:55,035 --> 01:47:55,936]
段永平：所以我就做好

[01:47:56,870 --> 01:47:57,671]
段永平：公司也是一样

[01:47:57,671 --> 01:47:58,738]
段永平：我找到同样喜欢的人

[01:47:58,972 --> 01:48:00,240]
段永平：然后我可以交给他们来做

[01:48:00,240 --> 01:48:03,243]
段永平：我还可以做自己喜欢的其他的事情

[01:48:03,977 --> 01:48:06,580]
段永平：比如说经营企业我已经享受过了

[01:48:06,580 --> 01:48:08,415]
段永平：我觉得确实挺好玩

[01:48:08,415 --> 01:48:09,583]
段永平：那确实也挺累的

[01:48:09,883 --> 01:48:12,385]
段永平：那最后一个结束的问题

[01:48:12,419 --> 01:48:16,523]
段永平：你对普通人的投资有什么建议

[01:48:16,723 --> 01:48:17,357]
段永平：没什么建议

[01:48:17,891 --> 01:48:19,392]
段永平：我觉得投资就是投资

[01:48:19,493 --> 01:48:21,061]
段永平：跟你是什么人没有关系

[01:48:21,728 --> 01:48:23,864]
段永平：你不是好好的投

[01:48:23,864 --> 01:48:25,966]
段永平：你反正最后就还不如不投

[01:48:26,199 --> 01:48:27,367]
段永平：你要真不懂投资

[01:48:27,367 --> 01:48:28,101]
段永平：你就不要碰

[01:48:28,835 --> 01:48:30,737]
段永平：不要想着去看见隔壁

[01:48:31,238 --> 01:48:32,606]
段永平：王二麻子赚了大钱了

[01:48:32,806 --> 01:48:35,041]
段永平：你就也想去赚一票

[01:48:35,208 --> 01:48:36,510]
段永平：他还不一定是真的赚

[01:48:36,510 --> 01:48:37,611]
段永平：只是那么说而已

[01:48:39,713 --> 01:48:40,914]
段永平：炒股是很难赚钱

[01:48:41,214 --> 01:48:41,948]
段永平：大部分的散户

[01:48:41,948 --> 01:48:43,617]
段永平：牛市熊市都是亏钱的

[01:48:44,084 --> 01:48:44,851]
段永平：80%吧

[01:48:45,452 --> 01:48:48,588]
段永平：所以你不要觉得你就是特殊的那个人

[01:48:48,688 --> 01:48:49,689]
段永平：除非你知道是为什么

[01:48:50,190 --> 01:48:50,924]
段永平：现在就更难了

[01:48:51,391 --> 01:48:52,492]
段永平：现在又有了

[01:48:55,128 --> 01:48:57,264]
段永平：量化基金这种东西

[01:48:58,064 --> 01:48:59,566]
段永平：以前就有

[01:49:00,267 --> 01:49:00,800]
段永平：但是

[01:49:01,234 --> 01:49:02,636]
段永平：以前没有那么厉害

[01:49:02,869 --> 01:49:03,870]
段永平：现在它更厉害

[01:49:05,839 --> 01:49:07,107]
段永平：就越来越厉害

[01:49:07,207 --> 01:49:08,642]
段永平：AI越来越厉害

[01:49:08,875 --> 01:49:09,175]
段永平：所以炒股票确实是

[01:49:09,175 --> 01:49:10,343]
段永平：所以炒股票确实是

[01:49:10,744 --> 01:49:12,679]
段永平：反正你一买它就掉

[01:49:12,812 --> 01:49:13,914]
段永平：你一卖它就涨

[01:49:14,581 --> 01:49:16,116]
段永平：人家就是冲着你来的

[01:49:16,449 --> 01:49:16,917]
段永平：但是

[01:49:17,317 --> 01:49:18,752]
段永平：你要是真的会投资呢

[01:49:19,085 --> 01:49:20,020]
段永平：你不需要什么建议

[01:49:20,020 --> 01:49:22,222]
段永平：你买了你觉得好公司你拿着

[01:49:22,689 --> 01:49:23,556]
段永平：你跟你自己的

[01:49:23,623 --> 01:49:25,158]
段永平：其他的机会成本比就好

[01:49:25,191 --> 01:49:26,726]
段永平：所以我老是说茅台

[01:49:26,726 --> 01:49:28,028]
段永平：我就觉得茅台可能是

[01:49:29,763 --> 01:49:31,164]
段永平：比较容易懂的东西

[01:49:31,998 --> 01:49:34,000]
段永平：当然很多人说年轻人不喝茅台了

[01:49:35,368 --> 01:49:36,403]
段永平：可那些不年轻的人

[01:49:36,403 --> 01:49:37,604]
段永平：他还能活很久啊

[01:49:38,605 --> 01:49:39,105]
段永平：这是第一

[01:49:39,105 --> 01:49:41,775]
段永平：第二 年轻人一直都不喝茅台

[01:49:42,475 --> 01:49:44,044]
段永平：那以后你可保不住他会不会喝

[01:49:44,444 --> 01:49:45,378]
段永平：喝酒有害健康

[01:49:45,378 --> 01:49:45,845]
段永平：这个是真的

[01:49:46,846 --> 01:49:47,347]
段永平：但是

[01:49:47,480 --> 01:49:48,348]
段永平：它有情绪价值

[01:49:48,515 --> 01:49:50,550]
段永平：所以还是会有人喝

[01:49:51,384 --> 01:49:52,586]
段永平：我自己就喜欢喝酒

[01:49:52,586 --> 01:49:53,353]
段永平：我本来想着

[01:49:53,353 --> 01:49:55,021]
段永平：今天我要不要带一瓶酒过来

[01:49:55,021 --> 01:49:55,956]
段永平：边聊边喝呢

[01:49:56,423 --> 01:49:57,090]
段永平：后来是因为

[01:49:57,624 --> 01:49:59,459]
段永平：我的运动的任务没完成

[01:49:59,659 --> 01:50:01,161]
段永平：所以我不能现在喝酒

[01:50:01,294 --> 01:50:02,028]
段永平：我不知道你们有没有

[01:50:02,162 --> 01:50:03,196]
段永平：坐着聊天边聊（边喝）

[01:50:03,863 --> 01:50:04,664]
段永平：弄杯红酒

[01:50:04,664 --> 01:50:06,166]
段永平：倒没有这么浪漫过

[01:50:07,634 --> 01:50:09,102]
段永平：是可以考虑的

[01:50:09,102 --> 01:50:09,336]
段永平：可以

[01:50:09,803 --> 01:50:10,670]
段永平：下回试一下

[01:50:11,271 --> 01:50:11,705]
段永平：那么大体上你的建议就是

[01:50:11,705 --> 01:50:12,772]
段永平：那么大体上你的建议就是

[01:50:13,673 --> 01:50:14,908]
段永平：炒股是很难挣钱的

[01:50:15,375 --> 01:50:16,042]
段永平：我觉得很难

[01:50:16,042 --> 01:50:18,445]
段永平：但是投资也未尝不可

[01:50:18,945 --> 01:50:20,113]
段永平：你如果懂的话

[01:50:20,180 --> 01:50:21,614]
段永平：投资的前提是你要懂企业

[01:50:22,048 --> 01:50:23,016]
段永平：你要搞懂它

[01:50:23,650 --> 01:50:25,285]
段永平：或者你看到合理的东西

[01:50:25,285 --> 01:50:26,286]
段永平：就是你自己觉得

[01:50:26,386 --> 01:50:27,854]
段永平：这个东西你觉得有道理

[01:50:28,288 --> 01:50:31,424]
段永平：那你想我跟一个朋友讲

[01:50:31,424 --> 01:50:32,892]
段永平：那时候他要投什么

[01:50:34,494 --> 01:50:37,497]
段永平：然后他是一个特别喜欢喝茅台的人

[01:50:37,897 --> 01:50:39,366]
段永平：我说你为什么不买茅台

[01:50:40,567 --> 01:50:41,668]
段永平：果然就买了茅台后来

[01:50:42,502 --> 01:50:43,870]
段永平：买完以后也没挣到钱

[01:50:45,071 --> 01:50:45,772]
段永平：我就跟他讲

[01:50:45,772 --> 01:50:46,339]
段永平：我说哎

[01:50:46,973 --> 01:50:48,708]
段永平：你那些没买茅台的朋友

[01:50:48,708 --> 01:50:49,709]
段永平：他们都买啥了

[01:50:49,943 --> 01:50:50,210]
段永平：哎呀

[01:50:50,210 --> 01:50:51,044]
段永平：你这么一说

[01:50:51,111 --> 01:50:51,945]
段永平：我就舒服了

[01:50:52,612 --> 01:50:54,047]
段永平：他们亏得比我多多了

[01:50:54,414 --> 01:50:55,515]
段永平：我说那不就对了吗

[01:50:55,882 --> 01:50:57,350]
段永平：茅台最后会回来的

[01:50:58,385 --> 01:50:58,885]
段永平：再不回来

[01:50:58,885 --> 01:51:00,487]
段永平：你拿股息都会拿回来

[01:51:00,820 --> 01:51:02,355]
段永平：只不过就时间长一点

[01:51:02,789 --> 01:51:05,225]
段永平：但是你要投到你不懂的生意里头

[01:51:05,625 --> 01:51:06,226]
段永平：你会很惨

[01:51:07,427 --> 01:51:09,295]
段永平：这几年不是茅台掉

[01:51:09,295 --> 01:51:11,464]
段永平：这几年是大部分都掉了

[01:51:14,000 --> 01:51:16,703]
段永平：所以我不是说真的要去鼓吹茅台

[01:51:17,003 --> 01:51:19,205]
段永平：我只是觉得你就事论事的话

[01:51:19,272 --> 01:51:20,707]
段永平：我觉得对大多数人来讲

[01:51:21,174 --> 01:51:24,044]
段永平：茅台可能是一个有意思的想法

[01:51:24,244 --> 01:51:24,677]
段永平：当然你说

[01:51:25,845 --> 01:51:28,748]
段永平：别的看起来也还不错的

[01:51:30,350 --> 01:51:31,151]
段永平：我没有发言权

[01:51:31,151 --> 01:51:32,352]
段永平：因为我没有太仔细看过

[01:51:32,352 --> 01:51:33,553]
段永平：比方说很多人问我

[01:51:33,553 --> 01:51:34,654]
段永平：那你为什么不买五粮液

[01:51:34,888 --> 01:51:35,889]
段永平：市盈率还更低

[01:51:37,357 --> 01:51:39,292]
段永平：其实也是可以考虑的

[01:51:39,793 --> 01:51:41,261]
段永平：但是我确实没有发言权

[01:51:41,261 --> 01:51:44,731]
段永平：因为我从来没有碰过五粮液

[01:51:44,798 --> 01:51:46,166]
段永平：我不知道那个酒什么味道

[01:51:46,900 --> 01:51:48,334]
段永平：我这个人本身不喝白酒

[01:51:49,369 --> 01:51:51,137]
段永平：就除了茅台我能喝一点以外

[01:51:51,204 --> 01:51:52,072]
段永平：别的酒我喝不了

[01:51:52,072 --> 01:51:53,073]
段永平：我一喝觉得好冲

[01:51:53,339 --> 01:51:54,641]
段永平：所以我没有发言权

[01:51:54,908 --> 01:51:56,743]
段永平：但你要是喜欢喝五粮液的人

[01:51:56,776 --> 01:51:57,744]
段永平：你就会坚信

[01:51:58,445 --> 01:51:59,813]
段永平：会有很多人喜欢喝

[01:52:00,413 --> 01:52:02,148]
段永平：那我觉得为什么不呢

[01:52:02,148 --> 01:52:03,550]
段永平：就像我喜欢玩游戏

[01:52:03,783 --> 01:52:05,385]
段永平：所以我就做了游戏

[01:52:05,385 --> 01:52:06,886]
段永平：那游戏市场再难的时候

[01:52:06,886 --> 01:52:09,089]
段永平：我都知道会有很多人来玩的

[01:52:09,756 --> 01:52:10,623]
段永平：那个东西很重要

[01:52:10,690 --> 01:52:12,592]
段永平：你要是对这个东西

[01:52:12,592 --> 01:52:13,259]
段永平：你卖的东西

[01:52:13,259 --> 01:52:14,594]
段永平：你不知道有没有人要买

[01:52:15,428 --> 01:52:16,296]
段永平：你没有办法坚持

[01:52:16,529 --> 01:52:17,263]
段永平：太难了

[01:52:18,665 --> 01:52:19,966]
段永平：如果你要坚定的认为

[01:52:19,966 --> 01:52:21,267]
段永平：没有人会再喝酒了

[01:52:21,968 --> 01:52:22,969]
段永平：那他确实不应该买

[01:52:23,503 --> 01:52:24,671]
段永平：这个觉得没道理

[01:52:24,671 --> 01:52:26,272]
段永平：但他本来就不喝的这些人

[01:52:26,639 --> 01:52:27,474]
段永平：他也很难坚定

[01:52:27,774 --> 01:52:29,242]
段永平：就像你买茅台

[01:52:29,242 --> 01:52:30,243]
段永平：可能比我买茅台

[01:52:30,243 --> 01:52:31,111]
段永平：可能要困难一些

[01:52:31,811 --> 01:52:33,680]
段永平：因为我认识太多喝茅台的人

[01:52:34,013 --> 01:52:35,281]
段永平：那么你的建议大概

[01:52:35,615 --> 01:52:36,783]
段永平：如果总结一下的话

[01:52:36,783 --> 01:52:38,418]
段永平：大概就是说不要炒股

[01:52:38,418 --> 01:52:39,385]
段永平：炒股挣钱很难

[01:52:39,686 --> 01:52:40,186]
段永平：去投资

[01:52:40,420 --> 01:52:41,521]
段永平：投资也许可以挣点钱

[01:52:42,188 --> 01:52:42,889]
段永平：投资是可以

[01:52:43,156 --> 01:52:43,990]
段永平：投资当然可以

[01:52:43,990 --> 01:52:45,158]
段永平：不然我在干嘛

[01:52:47,093 --> 01:52:48,161]
段永平：好的 谢谢

[01:52:48,361 --> 01:52:49,896]
段永平：我刚刚完成了

[01:52:49,896 --> 01:52:51,965]
段永平：对“大道无形我有型”

[01:52:52,465 --> 01:52:54,367]
段永平：也就是段永平先生的采访

[01:52:54,467 --> 01:52:56,035]
段永平：在做这个采访之前

[01:52:56,302 --> 01:52:57,937]
段永平：我们都有些困惑的

[01:52:58,571 --> 01:53:00,039]
段永平：因为大道说

[01:53:00,340 --> 01:53:03,243]
段永平：我想说的在雪球上平时都说过了

[01:53:03,676 --> 01:53:05,345]
段永平：如果大家有什么想问我的

[01:53:05,345 --> 01:53:06,779]
段永平：也都可以随时问我

[01:53:06,779 --> 01:53:07,780]
段永平：我跟大道说

[01:53:07,981 --> 01:53:09,549]
段永平：那可能我们这期节目

[01:53:10,183 --> 01:53:11,985]
段永平：也就是一个老调重谈

[01:53:11,985 --> 01:53:13,253]
段永平：但是谈完以后

[01:53:13,653 --> 01:53:14,954]
段永平：我觉得还是不错的

[01:53:15,288 --> 01:53:19,025]
段永平：还是对大道的投资的理念

[01:53:19,459 --> 01:53:20,260]
段永平：他的价值观

[01:53:20,260 --> 01:53:21,227]
段永平：他的方法论

[01:53:21,327 --> 01:53:23,363]
段永平：有了一个相对系统的总结

[01:53:23,930 --> 01:53:25,431]
段永平：我希望这个节目

[01:53:25,865 --> 01:53:27,801]
段永平：对雪球上的用户

[01:53:27,867 --> 01:53:29,502]
段永平：也能起到这样的作用

[01:53:29,502 --> 01:53:30,837]
段永平：同时大家以后

[01:53:31,271 --> 01:53:32,505]
段永平：你有投资方面的问题

[01:53:32,872 --> 01:53:35,008]
段永平：也依然可以在雪球上问他